Jaz Hands -- Board 13

Board 13
Our side vulnerable

This week, we continue with Jazlene's Mixed Team match. Here is Alex's discussion of today's deal on YouTube:

♠ 6 2  ♥ A J 10 7 3  ♦ K 9 4  ♣ Q 10 8

Gideon opens one spade. Jazlene bids one notrump, semi-forcing, and Gideon passes, showing a balanced minimum. RHO apparently forgot to overcall, so she corrects her mistake now and balances with two clubs.

Some players would bid two hearts here, thinking they have to do something, because partner opened the bidding and they have ten HCP. But those high cards take tricks on defense as well as offense. Since we don't have a game, our objective is simply to go plus. So the question becomes, are we more likely to go plus defending two clubs or bidding two hearts?

As in most low-level competitive decisions, the Law of Total Tricks is your guide. If the opponents are in a seven-card club fit, they are probably going down, and defending is your safest route to a plus score. If they have an eight-card club fit, then you have eight hearts (since partner must be 5-3-3-2), and two hearts must be a heavy favorite to make. So you want to defend if partner has three clubs and to bid two hearts if he has a doubleton.

If you pass, you can accomplish that. If partner has three clubs, he will sell out. If he has two, he will reopen with a double, and you can bid two hearts.

Jazlene got the first part right. She passed. But then, when Gideon reopened with a double, she decided to go for blood and passed. That's unlikely to be the winning decision. If either two clubs or two hearts makes and the other contract goes down, it doesn't make difference whether we bid or defend. The large swings happen when either both contracts make or both go down. So your decision rests on which of those two scenarios you think is more likely. When they have eight clubs and we have eight hearts, surely both contracts making is more likely.

Jazlene says it was a state-of-the-match decision. "I wasn't getting rich playing two hearts." I assume by that she meant she was hoping to collect 500. It's true that if you do get lucky and collect 500, you pick up 8 imps. So, even though that's unlikely, it might be a worthwhile gamble if the risk were small. But if both two hearts and two clubs are making, you lose 7 imps by passing. Risking 7 imps to pick up 8 on a longshot doesn't seem like good odds to me, whatever the state of the match.

	NORTH Paulus ♠ K J 8 4 ♥ 9 8 6 2 ♦ Q 7 5 ♣ K 5
WEST Jazlene ♠ 6 2 ♥ A J 10 7 3 ♦ K 9 4 ♣ Q 10 8

West	North	East	South
Jazlene	Paulus	Gideon	Desy
		1 ♠	Pass
1 NT	Pass	Pass	2 ♣
Pass	Pass	Double	(All pass)

You lead the spade six. Dummy plays low, and partner's ten forces declarer's ace. We know a lot about the layout. Declarer must be 2-1-4-6 with 7 to 9 HCP. Unfortunately, declarer knows the shape also. So if she has ace sixth of clubs, she will cash two top clubs and work on diamonds, losing one heart, one clubs, and three diamonds. Making two.

Surprisingly, she doesn't cash clubs. She plays the deuce of diamonds from her hand at trick two. What's that about? Maybe she has the diamond ace instead of the club ace. Does that help? That gives us one heart, one diamond, and three clubs. Nope. Still not beating it.

Perhaps she's not so confident about the shape. Perhaps she thinks we wouldn't sit for the double without four clubs, making partner 5-3-4-1. That would make for a strange pass of one notrump. But somebody did something strange. So why not partner?

If declarer does have the ace of clubs and is determined to work on diamonds, perhaps we have a chance. Hop with the diamond king, cash the heart ace to avoid any accidents, and play another spade. If declarer wins and persists in diamonds, partner wins the jack and leads the spade queen. Declarer ruffs, we overruff and lead a diamond to partner for another spade. Down one. 

Would declarer continue diamonds in that scenario, or revert to cashing clubs? If she genuinely believes we are 2-5-2-4, perhaps. Who knows? In any event, it's the only chance I see. But it's not risk-free. If declarer has the diamond jack, hopping gives her an overtrick. But it may be worth the risk. If the opponents are plus 140 at the other table, we're already minus 8 imps. Dropping the overtricks costs only 3 more. If we beat this, we go plus 2 imps for a net gain of 10. I like those odds.

Jazlene doesn't go for it. She ducks the diamond, inserting the nine. That play I don't get. I know it's the right count card (playing upside-down). But if declarer has jack-eight, it costs a trick. Technical plays take precedence over signals.

Partner captures dummy's queen with the ace and shifts to the queen of hearts. Declarer follows low. Partner led the queen from king-queen third? I assume that was an attempt to show the diamond jack. Please don't do that, partner. 

Playing suit-preference games with honors make me nervous. Queen, then king, usually means "I have a doubleton. Please overtake." Yes, that can't be true here, so I should read the card as suit preference. But some day partner might not notice an ambiguity like that. I'm happier if he just plays his standard card and lets me work the hand out myself. If I need him to have the diamond jack, I'll play him for it.

What heart should we play? A discouraging heart here should show the spade lead was a singleton. So if we discourage, partner will shift to a spade, hoping to give us two ruffs. We don't want that, so we encourage with the deuce (upside down). Partner continues with the king of hearts. Declarer ruffs, plays a club to the king and another diamond. Yes. If partner has a stiff club and four diamonds, that's what she must do. She can eventually ruff her diamond loser in dummy as Jazlene ruffs in front of dummy with a natural trump trick.

Diamonds were three-three all along, so declarer loses three diamonds and a club. Making two.

	NORTH Paulus ♠ K J 8 4 ♥ 9 8 6 2 ♦ Q 7 5 ♣ K 5
WEST Jazlene ♠ 6 2 ♥ A J 10 7 3 ♦ K 9 4 ♣ Q 10 8		EAST Gideon ♠ Q 10 7 5 3 ♥ K Q 5 ♦ A J 6 ♣ J 7
	SOUTH Desy ♠ A 9 ♥ 4 ♦ 10 8 3 2 ♣ A 9 6 4 3 2

Jazlene might not have gotten rich in two hearts, but she would have earned a respectable income, since the opponents had an accident in the other room. North opened one spade and East bid two clubs, making the sensible decision to bid his hand immediately. Waiting to bid until the opponents have had a chance to exchange information is a poor strategy.

Over two clubs, South bid two hearts, presumably not game-forcing in competition. North raised to three hearts, and South went on to four.

Three hearts shows a dead minimum. With a little extra--or with any hand that holds a fourth trump--partner will raise to game. So with eights losers, including a likely wasted card in the opponent's suit, Della should have passed. The only reason I can think of for accepting was she thought three hearts was forcing. But I'm just guessing. Sometimes players who were weaned on two-over-one game forcing are surprisingly unfamiliar with standard methods.

So Jazlene lost only 2 imps on her gamble. Had she bid two hearts, she would have picked up 6.