ACBL Daylong 1 - Jul 29, 2021 - Board 10

Board 10
Both vulnerable

♠ A J  ♥ 8 4 2  ♦ K Q J 3  ♣ A J 9 4

Pass to me. I open one trump. Partner transfers with two diamonds, I bid two hearts, and partner passes. RHO hasn't had enough yet. He balances with two spades. With three-card heart support and short spades, it's probably right to compete. Unless partner has four spades, then, according to the Law, it's unlikely both two spades and three hearts are going down. 

I bid three hearts and buy it. West, somewhat surprisingly, leads the king of hearts.

	NORTH Robot ♠ Q 10 2 ♥ Q J 10 9 6 ♦ 6 2 ♣ Q 7 6
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ A J ♥ 8 4 2 ♦ K Q J 3 ♣ A J 9 4

N

West	North	East	South
Robot	Robot	Robot	Phillip
		Pass	1 NT
Pass	2 ♦	Pass	2 ♥
Pass	Pass	2 ♠	3 ♥
(All pass)

How are spades splitting? The balance would be more attractive with six spades, and the robots like to have good suits for their weak two-bids, so East's failure to open two spades doesn't mean much. But if East has six, that means West didn't lead a doubleton in his partner's suit. A trump lead makes some sense with three spades, since West expects me to have a doubleton and he wants to stop my ruff. So I'm inclined to think spades are three-five.

I have three top losers. Assuming the spade king is onside, I can avoid a spade loser by pitching dummy's third spade on a diamond. I can then concede a trick to the club king to make my contract. I'll wind up taking nine tricks: three heart tricks and two tricks in each of the remaining suits. 

If the club king is onside also, what are my chances of finding a tenth trick? I might be able to take three clubs tricks, either by dropping a doubleton king or by double finessing against king-ten. Or, if the diamond ace is onside, I might be able to take three diamond tricks. But taking all those finesses is going to require a lot of dummy entries, which I don't have. Probably my best chance for three diamond tricks is to hope East has four diamonds and comes under pressure when I cash dummy's hearts. I'm not sure of the details yet. Maybe I'll have a better picture of the hand after a few more tricks.

I don't need entries to my hand, so I see no reason to unblock in hearts. I play low. from dummy. East pitches the nine of spades. A five-zero trump break! I've never figured out how the robots card at trick one. Sometimes they play attitude; sometimes, count. So I'm not sure what to make of the nine of spades. It seems unlikely East wants a spade shift with a suit headed by king-nine, so perhaps he intends it as count from six. I have conflicting inferences now, and I'm not sure which is stronger. I'll have to keep an open mind about the spade split.

West shifts to the deuce of clubs. That's one dummy entry I no longer need. I play low, East plays the ten, and I win with the jack. If that shift was from three small, my clubs are now good. But a shift from three small clubs doesn't make much sense. A shift from a singleton or doubleton, looking for a ruff, makes more sense. The robots frequently lead low from doubletons in the middle of the hand, so the fact that West led the deuce is immaterial.

I play a heart. West hops with the ace, and East discards the spade four. That was surely an error. Ducking this trick would make it difficult for me to reach dummy to draw the remaining trumps. 

West persists with the three of clubs. His urgency to continue clubs suggests he was, in fact, looking for a ruff. I'm pretty sure now he has a doubleton club. I play low from dummy. East plays the eight, and I win with the nine. Thanks to West's club plays, I can now make an overtrick if the spade king is onside. 

It appears West is either 3-5-3-2 (making East 5-0-4-4) or 2-5-4-2 (making East 6-0-3-4). I play a heart to dummy, and East discards the diamond ten. The robots' first discard in a suit tends to be count. If East has four diamonds, that means he is 5-0-4-4. Here is the current position.

	NORTH Robot ♠ Q 10 2 ♥ J 10 ♦ 6 2 ♣ Q
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ A J ♥ -- ♦ K Q J 3 ♣ A 4

If my construction is correct, I don't need the spade finesse, since I have three diamond winners after East's diamond pitch. I can pitch a spade and a club from my hand on dummy's two hearts, then, once I've knocked out the diamond ace, my hand is good.

It makes me nervous when I have multiple winning lines, all of which seem to be virtually 100%. If you choose one of them and it turns out to be wrong, you look foolish. "What?" partner will say, "Why didn't you just do such and such? Wasn't that virtually 100%?"

I've never seen the robots pitch false count cards as their first discard in a suit. But that doesn't mean they won't. Perhaps the programmers have been reading my blog and have changed the code. On the other hand, I'm quite confident the spade king is onside. If East had

♠ 9 x x x x  ♥ --  ♦ A 10 9 x  ♣ K 10 8 x,

why would he hand me an overtrick by pitching a diamond? He probably shouldn't be pitching a diamond even with the spade king, but it's a gross blunder without it. So I'm sticking with my plan of taking the spade finesse.

On the next heart, East pitches the six of spades. I might as well hold onto my club. If East pitches a club on the last trump, I can pitch my spade and claim. So I pitch a diamond. On the last trump, East pitches the nine of diamonds. I let go of my small club and play a spade to the jack. It holds. I knock out the diamond ace and claim. Making four.

	NORTH Robot ♠ Q 10 2 ♥ Q J 10 9 6 ♦ 6 2 ♣ Q 7 6
WEST Robot ♠ 7 5 3 ♥ A K 7 5 3 ♦ 7 5 4 ♣ 3 2		EAST Robot ♠ K 9 8 6 4 ♥ -- ♦ A 10 9 8 ♣ K 10 8 5
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ A J ♥ 8 4 2 ♦ K Q J 3 ♣ A J 9 4

Plus 170 is worth 88%. Several Souths in three hearts made only three or even went down. Quite a few sold to two spades.

Apparently the spade nine at trick one was attitude, although I'm still not sure why East would want to encourage in spades. At least I was right that West's club shift was from a doubleton, despite the fact that he chose to lead the deuce. 

Could West have stopped the overtrick by ducking the second round of hearts? It doesn't appear so, since I don't actually need to draw trumps. I can lead a spade to my jack and drive the diamond ace. East wins and returns a spade or a diamond. I cash my pointed-suit winners, pitching a club from dummy. Then ace of clubs, club ruff, and ruff dummy's last spade with my eight of hearts.