Zenith Daylong - Oct 14, 2021 - Board 1

I recently discovered the Zenith Daylong tournaments on BBO. The BBO and ACBL Daylongs are best-hand tournaments, meaning no one at the table has more HCP than you do. This isn't true in the Zenith Daylongs. Perhaps it's more fun always to have a good hand. But sometimes having a bad hand gives you more difficult problems. When you are defending and have fewer high cards than partner, it can be hard to work out what is going on. This is especially true playing with robots, who make no effort to help you. You must work everything out by drawing inferences from declarer's play and from partner's line of defense. That's a good thing if your objective is to hone your skills.

Let's give it a try.

Board 1
Neither vulnerable

♠ --  ♥ Q 10 6  ♦ A 9 6 3 2  ♣ A J 7 4 3

Partner opens one heart. Normally, when you have two five-card suits, you bid the higher-ranking one first. That assumes, however, that you intend to bid both suits. With this hand, I intend to support hearts next. For that reason, it makes sense to start with two clubs. Partner might raise clubs or he might bid two diamonds, revealing a double fit. Starting with two diamonds could prevent us from finding a secondary club fit.

I bid two clubs; partner rebids two hearts. This is the default rebid in the robots' methods. It does not promise six. Three spades would be a possibility now if the robots played that as a splinter, but they don't. I raise to three hearts, and partner goes on to four. I pass, and West leads the diamond jack.

	NORTH Phillip ♠ -- ♥ Q 10 6 ♦ A 9 6 3 2 ♣ A J 7 4 3
	SOUTH Robot ♠ A K J ♥ K 9 8 4 3 2 ♦ Q 7 5 ♣ 5

West	North	East	South
Robot	Phillip	Robot	Robot
			1 ♥
Pass	2 ♣	Pass	2 ♥
Pass	3 ♥	Pass	4 ♥
(All pass)

If West has led a short suit, as seems likely, I want to play to minimize the chance of a diamond ruff. If East has the heart ace, it doesn't matter what I do. If West has it, I want to rise if the lead is a singleton and duck if it's a doubleton. Doubletons occur more often than singletons. Plus there is some chance West has led from king-jack-ten. So I duck.

East wins with the king, and I play the five. East returns the diamond four. Assuming this doesn't get ruffed, which hand do I want to win the trick in? I see no reason to take a finesse against the heart jack. So if either opponent has ace-jack third of hearts, I'm losing two heart tricks. If hearts are two-two, I'm losing one heart trick and, potentially, a diamond ruff. The only time my heart play matters is if someone has a stiff ace. A stiff ace in East's hand doesn't help. I'm losing the heart ace and a diamond ruff however I play the suit. But if West has a stiff ace, I want my first heart play to be from my hand. So I play the diamond queen. West plays the ten. I'm past the first hurdle. At least the lead wasn't a singleton.

Now deuce of hearts--five--queen--ace. East returns a diamond, which West ruffs with the heart seven. There is only one trump outstanding, and I can ruff my spade loser in dummy. So I have the rest. Making four.

	NORTH Phillip ♠ -- ♥ Q 10 6 ♦ A 9 6 3 2 ♣ A J 7 4 3
WEST Robot ♠ 10 7 6 5 4 3 2 ♥ 7 5 ♦ J 10 ♣ 10 2		EAST Robot ♠ Q 9 8 ♥ A J ♦ K 8 4 ♣ K Q 9 8 6
	SOUTH Robot ♠ A K J ♥ K 9 8 4 3 2 ♦ Q 7 5 ♣ 5

This result is worth a mere 39%. And for a weird reason. If I respond two diamonds instead of two clubs, West chooses a club lead, and I make five.

It's annoying to get a below-average board for a completely random reason. Some would claim I got what I deserved. Two clubs was anti-field, since most players would bid the higher-ranking suit reflexively. And I should avoid anti-field actions in the auction so I can fully exploit my edge in declarer play--assuming I have one. 

I've never bought that argument. If I think bidding two diamonds has a lower expectation than bidding two clubs--and I do--why should I accept that lower expectation out of fear that it will work out poorly for some reason having nothing to do with the relative merits of the two choices? Randomness works both ways. Two club is just as likely as two diamonds to work out better for some unforeseeable reason. And it is more likely to work out better for a foreseeable reason. I believe you should simply do what you think is right and let the random effects balance themselves out in the long run.

What about my play at trick one? While it didn't matter. I'm not entirely sure I did the right thing. One possibility I didn't consider at the time is that West might have jack-ten third of diamonds. If so, and if West has the heart ace, I need to hop to block the suit. There is also some chance West led from jack-ten fourth and East has a singleton king. Finally, hopping may also save a trick if West has a singleton and East has the stiff ace of hearts. In that case, I lose two ruffs if I duck but only one if I hop. Whether those additional cases tip the scale in favor of rising with the ace is hard to say. If we assume West would never lead from king-jack-ten, then hopping looks like the better choice. The more likely he is to lead from king-jack-ten, the more attractive ducking becomes.