Free Weekly Instant Tournament - July 28 - Board 7

Board 7
Both sides vulnerable

♠ A K  ♥ A Q 8 4 3  ♦ J 9 8  ♣ Q 7 3

I'm in first seat. With five hearts, a balanced hand, and 15 or 16 HCP, you pretty much have to open with one notrump. If you open with one heart, you have no rebid after a one spade response.

I bid one notrump, partner bids two hearts, a transfer to spades. I bid two spades, and partner bids four hearts, showing slam interest with six spades and a singleton or void in hearts.

I'm hardly worth a move past game. The queen of hearts and the fifth heart are probably wasted, and I have only a doubleton spade (although as doubletons go, it's not a bad one to have). I bid four spades and partner passes. West leads the diamond three.

	NORTH Robot ♠ Q J 10 9 6 2 ♥ 9 ♦ A Q 4 ♣ A 10 2
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ A K ♥ A Q 8 4 3 ♦ J 9 8 ♣ Q 7 3

West	North	East	South
Robot	Robot	Robot	Phillip
			1 NT
Pass	2 ♥	Pass	2 ♠
Pass	4 ♥	Pass	4 ♠
(All pass)

Unless I run into very bad luck, all I can lose is two clubs and a diamond, so I'm probably making this. Can I make an overtrick? If West has led from the diamond king, I don't have a diamond loser. I might also be able to establish a second club trick. Or I might be able to set up hearts to discard one or both clubs.

If I hope to set up a long heart trick, I will need an entry to my hand after drawing trump. The club queen might be an entry if East has the king. But in that case, a long heart trick is doing me no good, since I have nothing to pitch. The only way I can profit from long heart tricks is to enter my hand with the diamond jack. And the only way I can do that is to play the queen at trick one and hope it loses to the king. That would be an embarrassing play if West has led from the king. Now I'm taking only two diamond tricks when I'm entitled to three.

Is it worthwhile to take that risk? The robots don't like aggressive leads in general. And an aggressive lead into a one-notrump opener is particularly unattractive. So it's more likely than not that the diamond king is on my right. On the other hand, it's not entirely clear the hand entry will be useful. It will be useful if I can set up two heart tricks and pitch both of dummy's small clubs. But if I can pitch only one club and the club king is on my right, the pitch gains nothing.

The robots' leads sometimes surprise me, so I'm hesitant to make a speculative play on the assumption I know what West would lead from. I might do so if I were sure I would gain a trick if I were right. But since it's not clear I will, it doesn't seem worth the risk. I play low from dummy.

East wins with the king and shifts to the five of hearts. His failure to return a diamond suggests the opening lead was from length. If it was from three-deuce doubleton, East, with five diamonds, might have returned in diamond, hoping his partner had a singleton.

Should I finesse? Essentially, I must decide whether to play East for the heart  king by finessing or to play him for the club king by hopping and playing a club toward my queen later. He is no more likely to have one king than the other., so it might seem like a tossup. But if I finesse and I'm wrong, I'm out of options. I'm making only four. If I play him for the club king and I'm wrong, I still have chances for an overtrick. The club jack might drop, or I might be able to force a club play from the defense in the end position.

And there is another possibility. If West has king third of hearts, I can ruff it out. Heart ace, ruff, spade to my hand ruff, setting up my queen. Now I play another spade to my hand and lead the heart queen. If West is out of trumps, I get a pitch. If he ruffs, I overruff and am back to trying to play clubs for one loser. So while my play a tossup as far as the location of the kings is concerned, refusing the finesse gives me extra chances that taking the finesse doesn't.

I hop with the heart ace. West follows with the deuce.

Now to try to ruff out king third of hearts. I play the heart three--six--spade nine. East drops the heart king. So East had king doubleton.

The heart king dropping on my right isn't what I was hoping for. I could cash two trumps, then cash the heart queen, pitching a club, and hope East is out of trumps. But for all I know I'm pitching a winner. So that can't be the right line.

Maybe I can utilize the heart queen another way. I can draw trump, cash the diamonds, and play a club to the queen. If it loses to the king and West is out of diamonds, he has to give me the heart queen or lead a club for me, allowing me to finesse against the jack.

I cash the ace and king of spades. Both opponents follow. I cross to dummy with a diamond. West plays the deuce; East, the ten. The deuce? So West had five diamonds? With 2-5-5-1, surely he would have led his stiff club. He must be 3-5-5-0. But then East, with seven clubs, should have been able to figure that out and give him a club ruff. I must be wrong about West's having diamond length. He must have begun with a doubleton. I don't know why East didn't continue diamonds at trick two. How did he know the lead wasn't a singleton?

I cash the spade queen. East follows; West pitches the club six.

On the third diamond, West pitches the heart seven. So he was 2-5-2-4. We've reached this position:

	NORTH Robot ♠ J 10 ♥ -- ♦ Q ♣ A 10 2
WEST Robot ♠ -- ♥ J 10 x ♦ -- ♣ ? ? ?		EAST Robot ♠ -- ♥ -- ♦ x x x ♣ ? ? ?
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ -- ♥ Q 8 ♦ J ♣ Q 7 3

I have a 75% chance of a second club trick. I play the deuce of clubs--eight--queen--king. West continues with the five of clubs--ten--jack. Making four.

	NORTH Robot ♠ Q J 10 9 6 2 ♥ 9 ♦ A Q 4 ♣ A 10 2
WEST Robot ♠ 5 3 ♥ J 10 7 6 2 ♦ 3 2 ♣ K 9 6 5		EAST Robot ♠ 8 7 4 ♥ K 5 ♦ K 10 7 6 5 ♣ J 8 4
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ A K ♥ A Q 8 4 3 ♦ J 9 8 ♣ Q 7 3

Plus 620 is worth 29%. Why is it so bad? A fair number of declarers made five. But not by superior play. In every case, the player opened with one heart and played four spades from the other side, getting a club lead.

What did they rebid after one heart--one spade? Some tried one notrump. Some tried two hearts. Some tried two clubs. It hardly seems fair that the players who gave themselves an impossible rebid problem by opening one heart were rewarded while those who had the foresight to open one notrump were punished.

On the other hand, I can't be too angry with the bridge gods, since I did have two opportunities to make five. One way, finessing the heart queen, is clearly wrong. But I'm not so sure about my play at trick one. Perhaps I was too cowardly. If I have the courage to play the diamond queen--assuming East doesn't duck it--I can make five easily. Now when the heart king ruffs out, I can draw trump and return to my hand with the diamond jack to cash the heart queen.

Incidentally, crossing to dummy with a diamond to draw the last trump was an error. Because of the inference I drew at trick two, I had the fixation that West had diamond length. But that was a deduction, not a fact. I knew for a fact ruffing a heart to dummy high was safe. I don't remember what I was thinking when I chose to play a diamond instead. I'm sure I had some reason, but I can't imagine it was a good one.

Free Weekly Instant Tournament - July 21 - Board 6

Board 6
Opponents vulnerable

♠ A 6 4  ♥ 10  ♦ A K 7 4  ♣ K J 9 8 2

RHO opens with one spade.

I could overcall with two clubs, but I prefer either a longer or a better suit for a two-level overcall. So I'm inclined to pass. 

Many players would not even consider passing with 15 HCP. But there is no necessity to bid in a competitive auction simply because you have a lot of high-card points. Those high cards will take tricks on defense as well as on offense.

The most important consideration is whether you have a good fit. We might have one, but why should it be clubs? If I'm going to enter the auction, I want to bring other suits into the picture. The way to do that with a three-suited hand is to make a take-out double. If the opponents deprive you of that chance by thoughtlessly bidding some suit other than your shortness, you simply wait for them to bid your shortness, then double. So the best way to handle this hand is to pass, hoping for the continuation

West	North	East	South
			1 ♠
Pass	1 NT	Pass	2 ♥
Double

Note this double is a three-suited takeout, not a two-suited takeout. With a minor two-suiter worth entry at this level, you would have overcalled or bid two notrump on the first round. So spades are in the picture, and spade bids by partner are natural.

While you are more likely to want to play spades if the opponents are playing four-card majors, it's not impossible that you belong in spades even if one spade promises five. I have played spades twice after similar sequences against five-card-majorites. On one occasion, one spade was a psyche, which we were able to brush aside. On the other, the four-three spade fit was our best spot despite the five-one break. (As Lowenthal liked to say, a four-three fit that is known to break five-one is often the best spot on a misfit. It's the only trump suit where the opponents can't crossruff.)

Another possibility with this hand is to overcall with one notrump. But the singleton heart is a serious flaw--more so than a singleton minor would be. A belated double of hearts describes my hand perfectly, so why should I distort my hand?

I pass, LHO bids one notrump, partner passes, and RHO spoils my plan by bidding two spades.

Since I didn't get a chance to double two hearts, should I be kicking myself for not acting on the first round? Hardly. In fact, this possibility is one of the benefits of passing. Holding a singleton in a suit nobody wants to bid suggests a misfit. Somebody out there has hearts. Most likely hearts is LHO's best suit and partner has hearts stacked behind him, so our defensive prospects look good. I'm happy I chose to stay out of the auction.

I pass again. LHO raises to three spades--pass--pass back to me. Better yet. I get to defend three spades instead of two. This bid should show a doubleton spade. With a prepared three-card limit raise, one generally raises to four once you discover partner has a six-card suit. I'm quite pleased with how this auction has turned out. We have a fair chance to go plus here. I pass.

Should I lead my singleton or the diamond king? Several top players have told me that you should always lead from an ace-king. Even if another lead is better, they say, partner will often misdefend, thinking you can't have that ace-king. On the other hand, Garozzo once told me you should always lead your singleton. What are you supposed to do when you have two conflicting "always" rules? I guess you have no choice but to think.

In this case, the singleton heart strikes me as a better lead. While it is unlikely partner has an entry to give me a ruff, a heart lead may cause communication problems for declarer. He will be unable to lead a second one without drawing trump. And if we need to cash diamond tricks, I have plenty of time. I have clubs wired, and I have the trump ace. So declarer isn't getting any early diamond pitches.

I lead the heart ten and see the following dummy:

	NORTH Robot ♠ 8 3 ♥ A K J 5 ♦ J 6 3 2 ♣ 7 4 3
WEST Phillip ♠ A 6 4 ♥ 10 ♦ A K 7 4 ♣ K J 9 8 2

West	North	East	South
Phillip	Robot	Robot	Robot
			1 ♠
Pass	1 NT	Pass	2 ♠
Pass	3 ♠	(All pass)

Declarer rises with the heart ace, partner plays the four, and declarer follows with the nine.

If partner wants to encourage, he should play the highest spot he can afford. Declarer has at most three hearts. So even if declarer has 987, partner must have the six. The four can't be partner's highest card, so it must be his lowest, marking declarer with 932. Is that possible? Would declarer squander the nine with 932? Either declarer has made a strange play or partner has played an impossible card.

What should a low card mean here? To my mind, it suggests a s shift to the suit I'm most apt to want to shift to, which, looking at this dummy, is clubs. If partner can't stand a club shift, he should encourage even without the heart queen. But the robots don't know how to signal, so I can draw no inference from partner's card. Instead I have to rely on probabilities and inferences from the play. It's a lot of work defending with a robot, but it's good practice at inference and calculation.

With that in mind, let's practice. What is declarer's likeliest shape? He should bid a four-card heart suit in preference to rebidding spades, so hearts are probably five-three. Six-two is possible, but not if partner's four is an honest card. Even if it isn't, a five-three is a priori more likely.

There are five cards missing in each minor, so each minor is apt to be three-two. That makes 6-3-2-2 declarer's single likeliest shape, although 6-3-1-3 or 6-3-3-1 are tied for a close second.

What about high cards? There are 16 HCP missing. Declarer probably has 11 or 12, leaving partner with 4 or 5. The heart queen rates to be two of them, simply because that's partner's longest suit. He probably has one of the two minor-suit queens as well.

Of course this is nothing more than a percentage guess, subject to revision as the play progresses. But I have to start somewhere. I'll consider the play against that construction first, then see what assumptions I can relax.

If that is in fact the layout, what tricks do we have? We can take a spade, two diamonds, and a heart. We might have a club trick as well for the setting trick, but it might be hard to take. If declarer has the diamond queen, he can set up a pitch on dummy's jack.

Maybe I can switch to a club on winning the first diamond, hoping partner has the club queen. Wait. That's no good. Even if that works, declarer can simply pitch a heart instead of a club. We take a club trick but lose the heart trick. It seems if declarer is 6-3-2-2, I have to hope partner has the diamond queen so dummy's jack is useless.

If so, do we take five tricks on a passive defense? Maybe not. Perhaps declarer can set up a heart for a club discard. Come to think of it, surely he can. He wouldn't have played the heart nine at trick one without the eight. So he can simply lead the eight and ride it to set up a discard for his club. To take a club trick, we need to play clubs, preferably from partner's side, before declarer sets up the heart trick. Since I need partner to have the diamond queen anyway, perhaps, when I win the spade ace, I should underlead to it, so he can switch to clubs.

That's a scary defense, and I have no particular reason to believe my provisional construction is correct. Maybe there's a safer way to try for five tricks.

Suppose declarer is 6-3-3-1, which is only slightly less likely than 6-3-2-2. Now I can win the first spade and play ace-king and a third diamond. Partner ruffs and gives me a heart ruff. This has the advantage that it works on any distribution of high cards where partner has a doubleton diamond. The previous line requires both declarer to be 6-3-2-2 and partner to have both red queens.

Does it hurt to try for a diamond ruff if declarer has the doubleton? If declarer has queen doubleton, it doesn't. There was no way for me to stop him from taking a pitch on the diamond jack. If he has two small, however, three rounds of diamonds will ruff out partner's queen third, giving declarer a diamond trick he could not score himself. But maybe that won't matter. Declarer was getting a club pitch on the fourth heart anyway. Unless partner has the club ace, ruffing out partner's queen of diamonds does cost anything. This certainly looks like a better line than underleading my ace-king of diamonds.

What about the possibility that partner has the club ace? If he does, I need to shift to a club when I win the spade ace. We get a spade, two minor suit aces, a heart ruff, and whichever minor-suit king cashes, possibly even both. If a partner I trusted played a low heart at trick one, I would consider that line. But that's too specific a holding to play for when all I'm doing is guessing. I'm better off playing for a specific shape and any lie of the high cards than I am playing partner for a specific card I have no reason to believe he has.

At trick two, declarer plays the eight of spades--five--king. He wouldn't play the king without the queen, so if I were intending a passive defense, I would simply duck. I might learn something from seeing what declarer does next. Since I have decided to try for a diamond ruff, I can't afford to duck. I have plans for partner's second trump. I take the ace and switch to the diamond king--deuce--five--ten.

Partner's five is the lowest outstanding diamond. What should his card mean here? Should high show a doubleton, looking for a ruff? Or should it show the queen, looking for an underlead? I believe it should show the queen. If a small diamond shows any three-card holding, partner has no idea whether to risk an underlead or not. Underleading is only chance, but if it's wrong it's probably costly. On the other hand, if you play that low denies the queen, then after a low card partner knows his only chance is to give you ruff. And that might not cost if it's wrong.

Of course, with this partner, I'm on my own. His card is no help.

Do I have any clues? With queen-ten doubleton of diamonds, declarer might have falsecarded with the queen, hoping I think it's a singleton. Does the fact that declarer didn't falsecard suggest partner has the queen and I should switch back to plan A? In a sense, it's a restricted choice situation. Declarer might have played the queen if he had it; partner would not have. So partner is more likely to have the queen. Well, not exactly. That would be true if they were equally likely to hold the queen a priori. But they aren't. So all I can really say is that the chance partner holds the diamond queen has gone up.

How risky is an underlead? If partner started with queen doubleton, either underleading or giving him a ruff will work. If he started with a small doubleton, underleading is a mistake. What if he started with three small and my underlead lets declarer score his now stiff queen? Perhaps that doesn't matter. He gets one diamond trick either way. If I underlead, he scores the queen but no longer has the jack for a club discard. So we get a club trick instead of my diamond king. No, I'm wrong. He can float the eight of hearts to get a club discard. If he has the stiff queen left, we can take the diamond ace and a heart if I cash. We get only the heart if I underlead. 

Playing partner for the diamond queen on the basis of declarer's failure to falsecard seems like pretty shaky reasoning. The fact that I'm even thinking about it show why the falsecard is probably wrong. Why falsecard with a card you're hoping the defender plays his partner for? I'm going to stick to my plan.

I cash the diamond ace--three--eight--queen. I'm happy to see that card. Now the four of diamonds. Declarer plays low from dummy, partner plays the nine, and declarer ruffs with the deuce.

Declarer cashes the spade queen. Partner follows with the jack. Declarer draws my trump, leads a heart to dummy, pitches a heart on the diamond jack, and takes a losing club finesse. Making three.

	NORTH Robot ♠ 8 3 ♥ A K J 5 ♦ J 6 3 2 ♣ 7 4 3
WEST Phillip ♠ A 6 4 ♥ 10 ♦ A K 7 4 ♣ K J 9 8 2		EAST Robot ♠ J 5 ♥ Q 8 6 4 2 ♦ 9 8 5 ♣ 10 6 5
	SOUTH Robot ♠ K Q 10 9 7 2 ♥ 9 7 3 ♦ Q 10 ♣ A Q

Minus 140 is worth 71%.

As I suspected, partner played a pusillanimous four of hearts at trick one. Please don't do that, partner. The deuce or the eight. No other card is legal.

Also, I was wrong that declarer had the heart eight. I'm not sure why he played the nine at trick one. Surely that could be a useful card.

No one tried a one-notrump overcall, but a few players did bid two clubs. This worked out poorly for a strange reason. North doubled and South judged to bid two notrump rather than two spades, scoring 150. Steering the opponents into spades instead of notrump was not the reason I rejected the two-club overcall, but I'll take it.

Declarer could have made four in the end position to beat the plus 150s. He can rise with the diamond jack, then run trumps coming down to:

	NORTH Robot ♠ -- ♥ K ♦ 6 ♣ 7
WEST Phillip ♠ -- ♥ -- ♦ 7 ♣ K J		EAST Robot ♠ -- ♥ Q ♦ -- ♣ 10 6
	SOUTH Robot ♠ -- ♥ 7 ♦ -- ♣ A Q

Now a heart to the king squeezes me in the minors. Of course, he had no reason to believe I had the club king--or any reason to believe the jack of diamonds would live. If he plays the diamond jack and partner ruffs it, he loses his discard. So I hardly blame him for taking the line he took.

Free Weekly Instant Tournament - July 14 - Board 5

Board 5
Our side vulnerable

♠ K 10  ♥ Q J 4  ♦ K Q 7  ♣ K J 10 3 2

Partner passes, and RHO opens with one heart. Despite the 15 HCP and the five-card suit, it's not clear this hand is worth a one-notrump overcall. I have only three honor tricks. (A strong notrump usually has three and a half or four.) And I have no aces. But the alternatives to one notrump aren't attractive. Overcalling two clubs with a balanced hand and a five-card suit does not appeal. And we could easily miss a game if I pass. Even if we don't  have a game, a one-notrump overcall may enable partner to compete with a long suit.

I bid one notrump, LHO passes, and partner bids two clubs, Stayman. I bid two diamonds and partner bids two notrump. This is his only way to invite in notrump, so he doesn't necessarily have four spades.

Normally the fifth club would be enough to accept. But I arguably overbid this hand already. And queen-jack third is an inflexible stopper, meaning I don't have the option of holding up. If partner has no help in hearts, they can duck trick one, establishing four heart tricks and maintaining communication. I will then have to find eight more tricks without losing the lead. At IMPs, the vulnerability might tempt me to accept. But at matchpoints, if I can make nine tricks with good play, plus 150 may be almost a good a result as plus 600. So I pass.

LHO leads the ten of hearts.

	NORTH Robot ♠ 8 7 5 4 ♥ A 7 6 ♦ A J 5 4 2 ♣ 5
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ K 10 ♥ Q J 4 ♦ K Q 7 ♣ K J 10 3 2

West	North	East	South
Robot	Robot	Robot	Phillip
	Pass	1 ♥	1 NT
Pass	2 ♣	Pass	2 ♦
Pass	2 NT	(All pass)

Wow! Ace, ace-jack, and a five-card suit. Partner might have bid three notrump himself with that hand.

I have two heart tricks and five diamond tricks. I need one more to make this. If East has both black aces, I have a choice of which king to score. Does he need both aces for his opening bid? I'm missing 16 HCP, so no, he does not. West could certainly have one of them.

How will the play go? East will win trick one with the heart king and return a heart. I'll run five diamonds, coming down to this position.

	NORTH Robot ♠ 8 7 5 4 ♥ ? ♦ -- ♣ 5
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ K 10 ♥ ? ♦ -- ♣ K J 10

I can then lead a club. I'll decide later whether to play the ten or king. But even if I guess wrong, I'm OK. West is out of hearts, so he must return a black suit, giving me my eighth trick. The only way the defense can beat me is for East to hop with the club ace and cash four spade tricks. If West has the spade ace, East should have at least the queen, so dummy's eight of spades should be enough to prevent them from cashing four tricks. Or maybe not. If East has QJ9x, or even Q9xx, dummy's eight fourth isn't good enough. Let's hope that's not the case.

I play low from dummy. East takes his king and returns the five of hearts. Which hand should I win this in? After I cash the diamonds and lead a club from dummy, East may hop with the ace and establish his hearts. If so, I'll want to win that trick in my hand so I can cash the club king. So I must win this trick in dummy to preserve my hand entry. I play the jack, West follows with the eight, and I overtake with dummy's ace.

I start running diamonds. On the third round, East discards the club eight. The robots usually discard count. If that's high, East is 2-5-2-4. If so, they can't take four spade tricks, since West can hardly have ace-queen-jack-nine.

On the next diamond, East discards the heart deuce. Pitching winners already? That suggests he has the club queen. 

I pitch the club deuce; West, the spade deuce. That looks like low from five, so East is indeed 2-5-2-4. If West has the club ace, I can make an overtrick. I'll cash the last diamond. reaching the position above, and play a club to the the ten, establishing my eighth trick. If West takes his ace, his black-suit return will give me a ninth. So West must duck.

Now what? It depends on what East's last five cards are. If he has stiffed the spade ace, I can duck it out. If he has stiffed the club queen, I can lead the king and pin it. If he has come down to 2-1-0-2, I can lead a low club. East wins with the queen and exits with a heart. I can then toss West in with his club ace to force a spade return.

On the last diamond, East pitches the club queen, spoiling all my plans. I pitch a club and drive the club ace. East returns a heart, so I score a heart and two clubs and lose the last two tricks. Making three.

	NORTH Robot ♠ 8 7 5 4 ♥ A 7 6 ♦ A J 5 4 2 ♣ 5
WEST Robot ♠ Q 9 6 3 2 ♥ 10 8 ♦ 9 6 3 ♣ 9 6 4		EAST Robot ♠ A J ♥ K 9 5 3 2 ♦ 10 8 ♣ A Q 8 7
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ K 10 ♥ Q J 4 ♦ K Q 7 ♣ K J 10 3 2

The club queen was a strange discard, but no other discard does better. As long as I play East to be 2-5-2-4, I can make an overtrick whatever he does.

Plus 150 is worth 93%. See what I mean? Frequently you don't have to bid games at matchpoints. Simply making them is good enough.

A few pairs were in three notrump, but only one of them made it. Usually, declarer erred by winning trick two in his hand. Then, when East took the club ace and cleared hearts, declarer was stuck in dummy.

If you ask yourself which hand you want to win the third heart in, the answer is easy. But you do have to bother asking yourself that question. Apparently most declarers did not.

Free Weekly Instant Tournament - July 7 - Board 3

Board 3
Opponents vulnerable

I mistakenly wrote up board four last week when I should have written up board three. I'll go back to board three this week.

♠ J 4 2  ♥ A J 3  ♦ A K 8 3  ♣ A 8 5

This hand, with four-plus honor tricks, is almost too good for a 15-to-17 notrump but not quite. I open with one notrump and everyone passes. LHO leads the deuce of diamonds.

	NORTH Robot ♠ Q 7 ♥ 10 9 4 2 ♦ J 9 6 ♣ Q 9 6 2
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ J 4 2 ♥ A J 3 ♦ A K 8 3 ♣ A 8 5

West	North	East	South
Robot	Robot	Robot	Phillip
			1 NT
(All pass)

I play low from dummy. East plays the seven and I win with the eight. If West has led from a three-card suit, as the robots like to do, my diamonds are now good. What if he has led from four? Surely East would have played the ten if he had it. But he might have withheld the queen. If so, then I again have four diamond tricks. If West has led from queen-ten fourth, I have only three.

My two aces bring me up to five or six tricks. I need to start hearts from dummy if possible. If I can lead hearts from dummy twice, I have a 75% chance of developing a heart trick. If I can lead them only once, I'll need honor doubleton or both honors onside.

I don't know how many dummy entries I have, so it's hard to plan a line of play. If the king of clubs is on my left and RHO has the stiff queen of diamonds left, I have two. It's also possible I have none. I'll start by trying to reach dummy with the club queen.

Should I lead low to queen immediately or cash the ace first? It's certainly a good idea to cash the ace if East has a stiff king. It could also gain if he has king-jack or king-ten. If I guess to duck out his king, I can take three club tricks. But if he drops an honor from jack-ten third, as he should, trying to duck out his king will prove embarrassing. It will also prove embarrassing if he has a singleton ten or jack. I might have something to think about if you move the club eight to dummy. As it is, trying to duck out king-ten or king-jack looks like a bad idea.

So cashing the ace gains only against an offside stiff king. When does it gain not to cash it? Retaining the ace gives me more flexibility. Since I don't know much about the layout yet, it's hard to say how it could matter. But staying flexible early in the play is a good idea in general. So it's probably better to lead low.

I lead the club five, West hops with the king, and East follows with the three. I'm up to six or seven tricks, depending on what's going on in diamonds. How are clubs splitting? West would surely duck with king fourth. He would probably duck with king third also. Hopping makes it easy for me to take three club tricks. Ducking might hold me to two. So I suspect he has king doubleton.

West shifts to the five of diamonds. I already decided East would have played the ten if he had it. So I play the nine from dummy. Easts plays the queen and I win with the king. Now I'm up to seven tricks. I also have two dummy entries, so I can take two heart finesses.

I want to keep the club entry for a possible squeeze, so I play a diamond to the jack. West follows with the ten, and East discards the six of spades. Now a low heart--six--jack--king.

West cashes the spade ace. That's helpful. Now I can set up a spade for an eighth trick. East encourages with the ten. His first play was the six. There are still two lower spades out: the three and the five.

West shifts to the club jack. It's weird that he didn't continue spades. Why cash the ace and shift? If you're going to break the suit, you might as well continue it. True, his partner's ten alerted him I have the jack. But he's already given me that trick. How can it hurt to continue the suit now?

I play low from dummy, East plays the seven, and I win with the ace. This is the current position:

	NORTH Robot ♠ Q ♥ 10 9 4 ♦ -- ♣ Q 9
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ J 4 ♥ A 3 ♦ A ♣ 8

If the heart queen is onside, I can drive the spade king and take the rest, making three. Is there any way to avoid the heart finesse?

If East has the remaining clubs, as I suspect, do I have any kind of squeeze that would allow me to avoid the heart finesse? Since the club threat is in front of East, the heart threat must be behind him. The three in my hand must be the threat. That means West needs to have started with two hearts. If I knew that were the case, I could execute a squeeze. I drive the spade king. East will probably switch to a heart. I hop with the ace. If West's queen drops, I have the rest. If it doesn't, I cash the spade jack and diamond ace, pitching both of dummy's hearts, squeezing East.

But I have no reason to believe West has a doubleton heart. So when East wins the spade king and plays a heart, I can't afford to hop. I'll have to finesse.

Maybe I'm wrong about the club break and the suit is three-three. If so, I don't need the heart finesse. But how do I take advantage of three-three clubs? I can't test clubs before driving the spade king. And if I lead a spade to East's king now, the expected heart return forces me to commit myself.

Perhaps I should cash the diamond ace before playing a spade. If clubs are three-three, maybe East will pitch one, thinking it doesn't matter. A human would never do that. But the robots, who assume declarer is double-dummy, make that kind of error frequently.

It's worth a try.  If East pitches a club, great. If he doesn't, no harm done. I'll fall back on the heart finesse. I cash the diamond ace, pitching a heart from dummy. East pitches the spade nine. I lead a spade to the queen. East takes the ace and returns a spade.

The spade return takes my options away as much as a low heart would, since dummy is squeezed. I win the spade jack and have to pitch dummy's long club to retain the heart finesse.

I lead a club from my hand, and West follows with the ten. Terrific! Clubs were three-three after all. 

I win with dummy's queen as East follows. I lead the heart ten, and East covers with the queen. Making three.

	NORTH Robot ♠ Q 7 ♥ 10 9 4 2 ♦ J 9 6 ♣ Q 9 6 2
WEST Robot ♠ A 3 ♥ K 8 7 5 ♦ 10 5 4 2 ♣ K J 10		EAST Robot ♠ K 10 9 8 6 5 ♥ Q 6 ♦ Q 7 ♣ 7 4 3
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ J 4 2 ♥ A J 3 ♦ A K 8 3 ♣ A 8 5

One player languished in one diamond. (I'm surprised East sold out.) Everyone else played in one notrump.. There is a variety of ways to attack the play, and most declarers found less successful ones. Plus 150 was worth 86%.

In retrospect, cashing the diamond ace might have been an error. In the diagrammed position, it matters what I do only if the heart finesse fails and that the alternative, playing for the club break, works. In other words, I must assume that East began with three clubs and no heart queen. If that's the case and if East is going to return a heart when I drive the spade king, then cashing the diamond ace doesn't cost. I was never going to enjoy the club break anyway. But if he isn't going to return a heart, cashing the diamond ace is an error, since it ends up squeezing dummy.

In essence, I must decide which mistake East is more likely to make: (A) Fail to return a heart if I play a spade now, or (B) pitch a club if I cash the diamond ace. Against a human, (A) is by far the likelier mistake. Pitching a club and giving the show away is something a human would not do. So against a human, cashing the diamond ace is wrong. Against a robot, I'm not so sure.

It turns out I could have made four. Not only were clubs three-three, but the heart queen was doubleton, In the diagrammed position, I can cash the heart ace and take the rest. I might have considered that had I known East had six spades. The robots almost always give accurate count when discarding (though not when following suit), and East did give bloodless count when he pitched the spade six. But then he cleverly held onto his spade five. Since I never learned his six was the start of an echo, I had no reason to suspect spades were six-two.

Free Weekly Instant Tournament - June 30 - Board 4

Board 4
Both sides vulnerable

♠ Q 9 7  ♥ A Q 10 8 2  ♦ K 9 3  ♣ 7 4

LHO passes, partner passes, and RHO opens with one spade. This isn't even close to a two-level overcall. I have a broken five-card suit, I have queen third of the opponent's suit, and I'm vulnerable.

I pass, LHO bids one notrump, and RHO bids two diamonds. The opponents haven't found a fit and the auction has not improved my hand. I pass again

LHO corrects to two spades, which is passed back to me. The opponents are presumably in a five-two fit. I have better prospects on defense than on offense, so it appears I made the right decision in staying out of the auction. I pass.

It could be right to lead a heart to get a tap going. Players think of starting a tap when they have four trumps. But it is often a good idea when trumps are three-three as well. Left to his own devices, declarer will have time to discover the favorable break. But if we tap him, he may be afraid of losing control. He might decide to play safe, cashing the ace-king of spades, then playing side suits and conceding two ruffs to the defense. So tapping declarer when trumps are three-three may gain a trick we aren't entitled to double-dummy.

Still, if declarer has the heart king, a heart lead will be wrong, and I have no particular reason to believe he doesn't have it. So I make the unimaginative lead of the club seven.

	NORTH Robot ♠ K 5 ♥ 4 3 ♦ 8 7 5 ♣ K Q 8 6 5 2
WEST Phillip ♠ Q 9 7 ♥ A Q 10 8 2 ♦ K 9 3 ♣ 7 4

West	North	East	South
Phillip	Robot	Robot	Robot
	Pass	Pass	1 ♠
Pass	1 NT	Pass	2 ♦
Pass	2 ♠	(All pass)

Declarer's likeliest shape is 5-3-4-1. 5-2-4-2 is possible. Even 5-3-3-2 is possible. With a minimum, declarer would pass one notrump with that shape, but he might bid two diamonds if he has extras.

Declarer plays the club king, partner takes the ace, and declarer drops the jack.

What's going on? Why did declarer rise with the king? Surely he would have played low if he held a stiff jack. Perhaps he has jack doubleton and wanted to ensure a club entry so he could take a red-suit finesse. I'm inclined to think he's 5-2-4-2. Or possibly 5-1-4-3.

Will partner continue clubs, thinking I have a singleton? If declarer is 5-2-4-2, giving partner ace third, I suspect he will. He knows declarer doesn't have a singleton, else I would be leading low from three. But I might have one. And, even if I don't, it could be right to return a club anyway to kill the dummy entry.

If declarer has 5-1-4-3, however, giving partner ace doubleton, he knows I can't have singleton, since that would give declarer four clubs. He will probably shift to a diamond in that case.

He does shift to a diamond--the six. Declarer rises with the ace, and I play the three. Another unexpected play. If declarer has ace-queen, he has no reason not to finesse. And without the queen, I would expect him to duck to cut our communication. Perhaps he's afraid my club was a singleton and he doesn't want to give us a second chance to the get the ruff?

Declarer leads the spade eight. With nine-seven, it can't hurt to cover this. But it can't gain either. Declarer isn't letting the eight ride. If I play the seven, declarer may think I don't have the nine. So that's what I do. Declarer wins with the king in dummy as partner follows with the deuce.

Declarer cashes the club queen and pitches the heart six. So he did have a stiff jack! Why not play low on the first club? Then he could take two pitches, pitching another heart while I ruff with what might be a natural trump trick. This is a strange line of play.

Declarer continues with a diamond--jack--queen--king. I was wrong about the diamond queen also. Although now that I know he had a stiff club, spurning the finesse makes sense. He wanted to ensure he got his heart discard. That means he must have a doubleton heart. There is no hurry to take a pitch from three hearts, so he wouldn't risk being wrong about the diamond king. The only way this line makes sense is if he 5-2-5-1.

If that's the case, all we can take is one heart, one spade, and a diamond ruff. That's five tricks in all, so declarer's is making this. Is there any way to take an extra trick? Not if my construction is correct. So let's assume it's wrong. Is there any layout where I can leverage my queen-nine of spades to score an extra trump trick?

If partner has jack-doubleton of spades left and I score an overruff in clubs, we'll still have a natural trump trick coming. But that won't work if partner needs to ruff to gain the lead. He needs a diamond entry. Suppose this is the layout:

	NORTH Robot ♠ 5 ♥ 4 3 ♦ 5 ♣ 8 6 5 2
WEST Phillip ♠ Q 9 ♥ A Q 10 8 2 ♦ 9 ♣ --		EAST Robot ♠ J x ♥ K x x ♦ 10 ♣ 10 9
	SOUTH Robot ♠ A 10 x x ♥ x x ♦ x x ♣ --

Now I can put partner in without shortening his trumps. We can take the diamond ten, two hearts, an overruff in clubs, and a trump trick for down one.

I play a diamond. The moment I click, I realize I made a mistake. Do you see it?

Fortunately it doesn't matter. My original construction was correct. Partner ruffs the diamond. We have a trump trick and a heart trick coming. Then we are out of tricks. Making two.

	NORTH Robot ♠ K 5 ♥ 4 3 ♦ 8 7 5 ♣ K Q 8 6 5 2
WEST Phillip ♠ Q 9 7 ♥ A Q 10 8 2 ♦ K 9 3 ♣ 7 4		EAST Robot ♠ J 4 2 ♥ K J 9 5 ♦ J 6 ♣ A 10 9 3
	SOUTH Robot ♠ A 10 8 6 3 ♥ 7 6 ♦ A Q 10 4 2 ♣ J

Minus 110 is worth 4%. 26 out of 28 pairs overcalled with two hearts, got raised to three, and usually made it. A spade lead would defeat it, although, unless the opponents find an unlikely double, that's still better than minus 110.

I'm surprised this is such a bad result. As I said before, I don't think this hand is even close to an overcall. It's not so much fear of going for a number that stops me. Mainly I'm worried about going minus 200 or about going minus 100 when I'm entitled to go plus. If partner has spade length, it's probably right to defend (although that wasn't true this time), and if he has spade shortness, it's his job to get us into the auction. I suspect, in general, I overcall more aggressively than the field. But a balanced hand with scattered high cards isn't my idea of the type of hand to get aggressive with.

It's disconcerting to get 4% for taking an action you think is routine. But that means I would get 96% most of the time, so I suppose I shouldn't complain. In a better field, I would expect about 45%. Below average because there will be a few overcalls, but certainly not a disaster.

What was my mistake in the defense? Go back to the diagrammed end position. When partner wins the diamond ten and cashes a club, declarer will pitch a heart. If partner plays a second club, declarer will pitch another heart and I lose my overruff. To get the extra trick, partner must cash the heart king before playing the last club. Will he do that? He might not. He might be afraid declarer has the heart ace. 

There is no reason to make partner find the play. I should cash the heart ace myself before playing a diamond to partner's ten. Now nothing bad can happen.

Of course, cashing the heart ace will cost if declarer began with king third of hearts. But how could he? With the heart king, it can't hurt to take the diamond finesse at trick two. Even if it loses, he'll get his discard before we can get at our heart tricks. Refusing the finesse with three small hearts is strange enough. Refusing it with king third is impossible.

Fortunately, if this were the layout, I would have a second chance. I play a diamond to partner's ten. He plays a club and declarer pitches a heart. I can recover by pitching the heart ace. Now partner is double-dummy. It's clear to lay down the heart king before playing the last club.