Free Weekly Instant Tournament - July 28 - Board 7

Board 7
Both sides vulnerable

♠ A K  ♥ A Q 8 4 3  ♦ J 9 8  ♣ Q 7 3

I'm in first seat. With five hearts, a balanced hand, and 15 or 16 HCP, you pretty much have to open with one notrump. If you open with one heart, you have no rebid after a one spade response.

I bid one notrump, partner bids two hearts, a transfer to spades. I bid two spades, and partner bids four hearts, showing slam interest with six spades and a singleton or void in hearts.

I'm hardly worth a move past game. The queen of hearts and the fifth heart are probably wasted, and I have only a doubleton spade (although as doubletons go, it's not a bad one to have). I bid four spades and partner passes. West leads the diamond three.

	NORTH Robot ♠ Q J 10 9 6 2 ♥ 9 ♦ A Q 4 ♣ A 10 2
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ A K ♥ A Q 8 4 3 ♦ J 9 8 ♣ Q 7 3

West	North	East	South
Robot	Robot	Robot	Phillip
			1 NT
Pass	2 ♥	Pass	2 ♠
Pass	4 ♥	Pass	4 ♠
(All pass)

Unless I run into very bad luck, all I can lose is two clubs and a diamond, so I'm probably making this. Can I make an overtrick? If West has led from the diamond king, I don't have a diamond loser. I might also be able to establish a second club trick. Or I might be able to set up hearts to discard one or both clubs.

If I hope to set up a long heart trick, I will need an entry to my hand after drawing trump. The club queen might be an entry if East has the king. But in that case, a long heart trick is doing me no good, since I have nothing to pitch. The only way I can profit from long heart tricks is to enter my hand with the diamond jack. And the only way I can do that is to play the queen at trick one and hope it loses to the king. That would be an embarrassing play if West has led from the king. Now I'm taking only two diamond tricks when I'm entitled to three.

Is it worthwhile to take that risk? The robots don't like aggressive leads in general. And an aggressive lead into a one-notrump opener is particularly unattractive. So it's more likely than not that the diamond king is on my right. On the other hand, it's not entirely clear the hand entry will be useful. It will be useful if I can set up two heart tricks and pitch both of dummy's small clubs. But if I can pitch only one club and the club king is on my right, the pitch gains nothing.

The robots' leads sometimes surprise me, so I'm hesitant to make a speculative play on the assumption I know what West would lead from. I might do so if I were sure I would gain a trick if I were right. But since it's not clear I will, it doesn't seem worth the risk. I play low from dummy.

East wins with the king and shifts to the five of hearts. His failure to return a diamond suggests the opening lead was from length. If it was from three-deuce doubleton, East, with five diamonds, might have returned in diamond, hoping his partner had a singleton.

Should I finesse? Essentially, I must decide whether to play East for the heart  king by finessing or to play him for the club king by hopping and playing a club toward my queen later. He is no more likely to have one king than the other., so it might seem like a tossup. But if I finesse and I'm wrong, I'm out of options. I'm making only four. If I play him for the club king and I'm wrong, I still have chances for an overtrick. The club jack might drop, or I might be able to force a club play from the defense in the end position.

And there is another possibility. If West has king third of hearts, I can ruff it out. Heart ace, ruff, spade to my hand ruff, setting up my queen. Now I play another spade to my hand and lead the heart queen. If West is out of trumps, I get a pitch. If he ruffs, I overruff and am back to trying to play clubs for one loser. So while my play a tossup as far as the location of the kings is concerned, refusing the finesse gives me extra chances that taking the finesse doesn't.

I hop with the heart ace. West follows with the deuce.

Now to try to ruff out king third of hearts. I play the heart three--six--spade nine. East drops the heart king. So East had king doubleton.

The heart king dropping on my right isn't what I was hoping for. I could cash two trumps, then cash the heart queen, pitching a club, and hope East is out of trumps. But for all I know I'm pitching a winner. So that can't be the right line.

Maybe I can utilize the heart queen another way. I can draw trump, cash the diamonds, and play a club to the queen. If it loses to the king and West is out of diamonds, he has to give me the heart queen or lead a club for me, allowing me to finesse against the jack.

I cash the ace and king of spades. Both opponents follow. I cross to dummy with a diamond. West plays the deuce; East, the ten. The deuce? So West had five diamonds? With 2-5-5-1, surely he would have led his stiff club. He must be 3-5-5-0. But then East, with seven clubs, should have been able to figure that out and give him a club ruff. I must be wrong about West's having diamond length. He must have begun with a doubleton. I don't know why East didn't continue diamonds at trick two. How did he know the lead wasn't a singleton?

I cash the spade queen. East follows; West pitches the club six.

On the third diamond, West pitches the heart seven. So he was 2-5-2-4. We've reached this position:

	NORTH Robot ♠ J 10 ♥ -- ♦ Q ♣ A 10 2
WEST Robot ♠ -- ♥ J 10 x ♦ -- ♣ ? ? ?		EAST Robot ♠ -- ♥ -- ♦ x x x ♣ ? ? ?
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ -- ♥ Q 8 ♦ J ♣ Q 7 3

I have a 75% chance of a second club trick. I play the deuce of clubs--eight--queen--king. West continues with the five of clubs--ten--jack. Making four.

	NORTH Robot ♠ Q J 10 9 6 2 ♥ 9 ♦ A Q 4 ♣ A 10 2
WEST Robot ♠ 5 3 ♥ J 10 7 6 2 ♦ 3 2 ♣ K 9 6 5		EAST Robot ♠ 8 7 4 ♥ K 5 ♦ K 10 7 6 5 ♣ J 8 4
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ A K ♥ A Q 8 4 3 ♦ J 9 8 ♣ Q 7 3

Plus 620 is worth 29%. Why is it so bad? A fair number of declarers made five. But not by superior play. In every case, the player opened with one heart and played four spades from the other side, getting a club lead.

What did they rebid after one heart--one spade? Some tried one notrump. Some tried two hearts. Some tried two clubs. It hardly seems fair that the players who gave themselves an impossible rebid problem by opening one heart were rewarded while those who had the foresight to open one notrump were punished.

On the other hand, I can't be too angry with the bridge gods, since I did have two opportunities to make five. One way, finessing the heart queen, is clearly wrong. But I'm not so sure about my play at trick one. Perhaps I was too cowardly. If I have the courage to play the diamond queen--assuming East doesn't duck it--I can make five easily. Now when the heart king ruffs out, I can draw trump and return to my hand with the diamond jack to cash the heart queen.

Incidentally, crossing to dummy with a diamond to draw the last trump was an error. Because of the inference I drew at trick two, I had the fixation that West had diamond length. But that was a deduction, not a fact. I knew for a fact ruffing a heart to dummy high was safe. I don't remember what I was thinking when I chose to play a diamond instead. I'm sure I had some reason, but I can't imagine it was a good one.