Free Weekly Instant Tournament - July 7 - Board 3

Board 3
Opponents vulnerable

I mistakenly wrote up board four last week when I should have written up board three. I'll go back to board three this week.

♠ J 4 2  ♥ A J 3  ♦ A K 8 3  ♣ A 8 5

This hand, with four-plus honor tricks, is almost too good for a 15-to-17 notrump but not quite. I open with one notrump and everyone passes. LHO leads the deuce of diamonds.

	NORTH Robot ♠ Q 7 ♥ 10 9 4 2 ♦ J 9 6 ♣ Q 9 6 2
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ J 4 2 ♥ A J 3 ♦ A K 8 3 ♣ A 8 5

West	North	East	South
Robot	Robot	Robot	Phillip
			1 NT
(All pass)

I play low from dummy. East plays the seven and I win with the eight. If West has led from a three-card suit, as the robots like to do, my diamonds are now good. What if he has led from four? Surely East would have played the ten if he had it. But he might have withheld the queen. If so, then I again have four diamond tricks. If West has led from queen-ten fourth, I have only three.

My two aces bring me up to five or six tricks. I need to start hearts from dummy if possible. If I can lead hearts from dummy twice, I have a 75% chance of developing a heart trick. If I can lead them only once, I'll need honor doubleton or both honors onside.

I don't know how many dummy entries I have, so it's hard to plan a line of play. If the king of clubs is on my left and RHO has the stiff queen of diamonds left, I have two. It's also possible I have none. I'll start by trying to reach dummy with the club queen.

Should I lead low to queen immediately or cash the ace first? It's certainly a good idea to cash the ace if East has a stiff king. It could also gain if he has king-jack or king-ten. If I guess to duck out his king, I can take three club tricks. But if he drops an honor from jack-ten third, as he should, trying to duck out his king will prove embarrassing. It will also prove embarrassing if he has a singleton ten or jack. I might have something to think about if you move the club eight to dummy. As it is, trying to duck out king-ten or king-jack looks like a bad idea.

So cashing the ace gains only against an offside stiff king. When does it gain not to cash it? Retaining the ace gives me more flexibility. Since I don't know much about the layout yet, it's hard to say how it could matter. But staying flexible early in the play is a good idea in general. So it's probably better to lead low.

I lead the club five, West hops with the king, and East follows with the three. I'm up to six or seven tricks, depending on what's going on in diamonds. How are clubs splitting? West would surely duck with king fourth. He would probably duck with king third also. Hopping makes it easy for me to take three club tricks. Ducking might hold me to two. So I suspect he has king doubleton.

West shifts to the five of diamonds. I already decided East would have played the ten if he had it. So I play the nine from dummy. Easts plays the queen and I win with the king. Now I'm up to seven tricks. I also have two dummy entries, so I can take two heart finesses.

I want to keep the club entry for a possible squeeze, so I play a diamond to the jack. West follows with the ten, and East discards the six of spades. Now a low heart--six--jack--king.

West cashes the spade ace. That's helpful. Now I can set up a spade for an eighth trick. East encourages with the ten. His first play was the six. There are still two lower spades out: the three and the five.

West shifts to the club jack. It's weird that he didn't continue spades. Why cash the ace and shift? If you're going to break the suit, you might as well continue it. True, his partner's ten alerted him I have the jack. But he's already given me that trick. How can it hurt to continue the suit now?

I play low from dummy, East plays the seven, and I win with the ace. This is the current position:

	NORTH Robot ♠ Q ♥ 10 9 4 ♦ -- ♣ Q 9
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ J 4 ♥ A 3 ♦ A ♣ 8

If the heart queen is onside, I can drive the spade king and take the rest, making three. Is there any way to avoid the heart finesse?

If East has the remaining clubs, as I suspect, do I have any kind of squeeze that would allow me to avoid the heart finesse? Since the club threat is in front of East, the heart threat must be behind him. The three in my hand must be the threat. That means West needs to have started with two hearts. If I knew that were the case, I could execute a squeeze. I drive the spade king. East will probably switch to a heart. I hop with the ace. If West's queen drops, I have the rest. If it doesn't, I cash the spade jack and diamond ace, pitching both of dummy's hearts, squeezing East.

But I have no reason to believe West has a doubleton heart. So when East wins the spade king and plays a heart, I can't afford to hop. I'll have to finesse.

Maybe I'm wrong about the club break and the suit is three-three. If so, I don't need the heart finesse. But how do I take advantage of three-three clubs? I can't test clubs before driving the spade king. And if I lead a spade to East's king now, the expected heart return forces me to commit myself.

Perhaps I should cash the diamond ace before playing a spade. If clubs are three-three, maybe East will pitch one, thinking it doesn't matter. A human would never do that. But the robots, who assume declarer is double-dummy, make that kind of error frequently.

It's worth a try.  If East pitches a club, great. If he doesn't, no harm done. I'll fall back on the heart finesse. I cash the diamond ace, pitching a heart from dummy. East pitches the spade nine. I lead a spade to the queen. East takes the ace and returns a spade.

The spade return takes my options away as much as a low heart would, since dummy is squeezed. I win the spade jack and have to pitch dummy's long club to retain the heart finesse.

I lead a club from my hand, and West follows with the ten. Terrific! Clubs were three-three after all. 

I win with dummy's queen as East follows. I lead the heart ten, and East covers with the queen. Making three.

	NORTH Robot ♠ Q 7 ♥ 10 9 4 2 ♦ J 9 6 ♣ Q 9 6 2
WEST Robot ♠ A 3 ♥ K 8 7 5 ♦ 10 5 4 2 ♣ K J 10		EAST Robot ♠ K 10 9 8 6 5 ♥ Q 6 ♦ Q 7 ♣ 7 4 3
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ J 4 2 ♥ A J 3 ♦ A K 8 3 ♣ A 8 5

One player languished in one diamond. (I'm surprised East sold out.) Everyone else played in one notrump.. There is a variety of ways to attack the play, and most declarers found less successful ones. Plus 150 was worth 86%.

In retrospect, cashing the diamond ace might have been an error. In the diagrammed position, it matters what I do only if the heart finesse fails and that the alternative, playing for the club break, works. In other words, I must assume that East began with three clubs and no heart queen. If that's the case and if East is going to return a heart when I drive the spade king, then cashing the diamond ace doesn't cost. I was never going to enjoy the club break anyway. But if he isn't going to return a heart, cashing the diamond ace is an error, since it ends up squeezing dummy.

In essence, I must decide which mistake East is more likely to make: (A) Fail to return a heart if I play a spade now, or (B) pitch a club if I cash the diamond ace. Against a human, (A) is by far the likelier mistake. Pitching a club and giving the show away is something a human would not do. So against a human, cashing the diamond ace is wrong. Against a robot, I'm not so sure.

It turns out I could have made four. Not only were clubs three-three, but the heart queen was doubleton, In the diagrammed position, I can cash the heart ace and take the rest. I might have considered that had I known East had six spades. The robots almost always give accurate count when discarding (though not when following suit), and East did give bloodless count when he pitched the spade six. But then he cleverly held onto his spade five. Since I never learned his six was the start of an echo, I had no reason to suspect spades were six-two.