Free Weekly Instant Tournament - July 21 - Board 6

Board 6
Opponents vulnerable

♠ A 6 4  ♥ 10  ♦ A K 7 4  ♣ K J 9 8 2

RHO opens with one spade.

I could overcall with two clubs, but I prefer either a longer or a better suit for a two-level overcall. So I'm inclined to pass. 

Many players would not even consider passing with 15 HCP. But there is no necessity to bid in a competitive auction simply because you have a lot of high-card points. Those high cards will take tricks on defense as well as on offense.

The most important consideration is whether you have a good fit. We might have one, but why should it be clubs? If I'm going to enter the auction, I want to bring other suits into the picture. The way to do that with a three-suited hand is to make a take-out double. If the opponents deprive you of that chance by thoughtlessly bidding some suit other than your shortness, you simply wait for them to bid your shortness, then double. So the best way to handle this hand is to pass, hoping for the continuation

West	North	East	South
			1 ♠
Pass	1 NT	Pass	2 ♥
Double

Note this double is a three-suited takeout, not a two-suited takeout. With a minor two-suiter worth entry at this level, you would have overcalled or bid two notrump on the first round. So spades are in the picture, and spade bids by partner are natural.

While you are more likely to want to play spades if the opponents are playing four-card majors, it's not impossible that you belong in spades even if one spade promises five. I have played spades twice after similar sequences against five-card-majorites. On one occasion, one spade was a psyche, which we were able to brush aside. On the other, the four-three spade fit was our best spot despite the five-one break. (As Lowenthal liked to say, a four-three fit that is known to break five-one is often the best spot on a misfit. It's the only trump suit where the opponents can't crossruff.)

Another possibility with this hand is to overcall with one notrump. But the singleton heart is a serious flaw--more so than a singleton minor would be. A belated double of hearts describes my hand perfectly, so why should I distort my hand?

I pass, LHO bids one notrump, partner passes, and RHO spoils my plan by bidding two spades.

Since I didn't get a chance to double two hearts, should I be kicking myself for not acting on the first round? Hardly. In fact, this possibility is one of the benefits of passing. Holding a singleton in a suit nobody wants to bid suggests a misfit. Somebody out there has hearts. Most likely hearts is LHO's best suit and partner has hearts stacked behind him, so our defensive prospects look good. I'm happy I chose to stay out of the auction.

I pass again. LHO raises to three spades--pass--pass back to me. Better yet. I get to defend three spades instead of two. This bid should show a doubleton spade. With a prepared three-card limit raise, one generally raises to four once you discover partner has a six-card suit. I'm quite pleased with how this auction has turned out. We have a fair chance to go plus here. I pass.

Should I lead my singleton or the diamond king? Several top players have told me that you should always lead from an ace-king. Even if another lead is better, they say, partner will often misdefend, thinking you can't have that ace-king. On the other hand, Garozzo once told me you should always lead your singleton. What are you supposed to do when you have two conflicting "always" rules? I guess you have no choice but to think.

In this case, the singleton heart strikes me as a better lead. While it is unlikely partner has an entry to give me a ruff, a heart lead may cause communication problems for declarer. He will be unable to lead a second one without drawing trump. And if we need to cash diamond tricks, I have plenty of time. I have clubs wired, and I have the trump ace. So declarer isn't getting any early diamond pitches.

I lead the heart ten and see the following dummy:

	NORTH Robot ♠ 8 3 ♥ A K J 5 ♦ J 6 3 2 ♣ 7 4 3
WEST Phillip ♠ A 6 4 ♥ 10 ♦ A K 7 4 ♣ K J 9 8 2

West	North	East	South
Phillip	Robot	Robot	Robot
			1 ♠
Pass	1 NT	Pass	2 ♠
Pass	3 ♠	(All pass)

Declarer rises with the heart ace, partner plays the four, and declarer follows with the nine.

If partner wants to encourage, he should play the highest spot he can afford. Declarer has at most three hearts. So even if declarer has 987, partner must have the six. The four can't be partner's highest card, so it must be his lowest, marking declarer with 932. Is that possible? Would declarer squander the nine with 932? Either declarer has made a strange play or partner has played an impossible card.

What should a low card mean here? To my mind, it suggests a s shift to the suit I'm most apt to want to shift to, which, looking at this dummy, is clubs. If partner can't stand a club shift, he should encourage even without the heart queen. But the robots don't know how to signal, so I can draw no inference from partner's card. Instead I have to rely on probabilities and inferences from the play. It's a lot of work defending with a robot, but it's good practice at inference and calculation.

With that in mind, let's practice. What is declarer's likeliest shape? He should bid a four-card heart suit in preference to rebidding spades, so hearts are probably five-three. Six-two is possible, but not if partner's four is an honest card. Even if it isn't, a five-three is a priori more likely.

There are five cards missing in each minor, so each minor is apt to be three-two. That makes 6-3-2-2 declarer's single likeliest shape, although 6-3-1-3 or 6-3-3-1 are tied for a close second.

What about high cards? There are 16 HCP missing. Declarer probably has 11 or 12, leaving partner with 4 or 5. The heart queen rates to be two of them, simply because that's partner's longest suit. He probably has one of the two minor-suit queens as well.

Of course this is nothing more than a percentage guess, subject to revision as the play progresses. But I have to start somewhere. I'll consider the play against that construction first, then see what assumptions I can relax.

If that is in fact the layout, what tricks do we have? We can take a spade, two diamonds, and a heart. We might have a club trick as well for the setting trick, but it might be hard to take. If declarer has the diamond queen, he can set up a pitch on dummy's jack.

Maybe I can switch to a club on winning the first diamond, hoping partner has the club queen. Wait. That's no good. Even if that works, declarer can simply pitch a heart instead of a club. We take a club trick but lose the heart trick. It seems if declarer is 6-3-2-2, I have to hope partner has the diamond queen so dummy's jack is useless.

If so, do we take five tricks on a passive defense? Maybe not. Perhaps declarer can set up a heart for a club discard. Come to think of it, surely he can. He wouldn't have played the heart nine at trick one without the eight. So he can simply lead the eight and ride it to set up a discard for his club. To take a club trick, we need to play clubs, preferably from partner's side, before declarer sets up the heart trick. Since I need partner to have the diamond queen anyway, perhaps, when I win the spade ace, I should underlead to it, so he can switch to clubs.

That's a scary defense, and I have no particular reason to believe my provisional construction is correct. Maybe there's a safer way to try for five tricks.

Suppose declarer is 6-3-3-1, which is only slightly less likely than 6-3-2-2. Now I can win the first spade and play ace-king and a third diamond. Partner ruffs and gives me a heart ruff. This has the advantage that it works on any distribution of high cards where partner has a doubleton diamond. The previous line requires both declarer to be 6-3-2-2 and partner to have both red queens.

Does it hurt to try for a diamond ruff if declarer has the doubleton? If declarer has queen doubleton, it doesn't. There was no way for me to stop him from taking a pitch on the diamond jack. If he has two small, however, three rounds of diamonds will ruff out partner's queen third, giving declarer a diamond trick he could not score himself. But maybe that won't matter. Declarer was getting a club pitch on the fourth heart anyway. Unless partner has the club ace, ruffing out partner's queen of diamonds does cost anything. This certainly looks like a better line than underleading my ace-king of diamonds.

What about the possibility that partner has the club ace? If he does, I need to shift to a club when I win the spade ace. We get a spade, two minor suit aces, a heart ruff, and whichever minor-suit king cashes, possibly even both. If a partner I trusted played a low heart at trick one, I would consider that line. But that's too specific a holding to play for when all I'm doing is guessing. I'm better off playing for a specific shape and any lie of the high cards than I am playing partner for a specific card I have no reason to believe he has.

At trick two, declarer plays the eight of spades--five--king. He wouldn't play the king without the queen, so if I were intending a passive defense, I would simply duck. I might learn something from seeing what declarer does next. Since I have decided to try for a diamond ruff, I can't afford to duck. I have plans for partner's second trump. I take the ace and switch to the diamond king--deuce--five--ten.

Partner's five is the lowest outstanding diamond. What should his card mean here? Should high show a doubleton, looking for a ruff? Or should it show the queen, looking for an underlead? I believe it should show the queen. If a small diamond shows any three-card holding, partner has no idea whether to risk an underlead or not. Underleading is only chance, but if it's wrong it's probably costly. On the other hand, if you play that low denies the queen, then after a low card partner knows his only chance is to give you ruff. And that might not cost if it's wrong.

Of course, with this partner, I'm on my own. His card is no help.

Do I have any clues? With queen-ten doubleton of diamonds, declarer might have falsecarded with the queen, hoping I think it's a singleton. Does the fact that declarer didn't falsecard suggest partner has the queen and I should switch back to plan A? In a sense, it's a restricted choice situation. Declarer might have played the queen if he had it; partner would not have. So partner is more likely to have the queen. Well, not exactly. That would be true if they were equally likely to hold the queen a priori. But they aren't. So all I can really say is that the chance partner holds the diamond queen has gone up.

How risky is an underlead? If partner started with queen doubleton, either underleading or giving him a ruff will work. If he started with a small doubleton, underleading is a mistake. What if he started with three small and my underlead lets declarer score his now stiff queen? Perhaps that doesn't matter. He gets one diamond trick either way. If I underlead, he scores the queen but no longer has the jack for a club discard. So we get a club trick instead of my diamond king. No, I'm wrong. He can float the eight of hearts to get a club discard. If he has the stiff queen left, we can take the diamond ace and a heart if I cash. We get only the heart if I underlead. 

Playing partner for the diamond queen on the basis of declarer's failure to falsecard seems like pretty shaky reasoning. The fact that I'm even thinking about it show why the falsecard is probably wrong. Why falsecard with a card you're hoping the defender plays his partner for? I'm going to stick to my plan.

I cash the diamond ace--three--eight--queen. I'm happy to see that card. Now the four of diamonds. Declarer plays low from dummy, partner plays the nine, and declarer ruffs with the deuce.

Declarer cashes the spade queen. Partner follows with the jack. Declarer draws my trump, leads a heart to dummy, pitches a heart on the diamond jack, and takes a losing club finesse. Making three.

	NORTH Robot ♠ 8 3 ♥ A K J 5 ♦ J 6 3 2 ♣ 7 4 3
WEST Phillip ♠ A 6 4 ♥ 10 ♦ A K 7 4 ♣ K J 9 8 2		EAST Robot ♠ J 5 ♥ Q 8 6 4 2 ♦ 9 8 5 ♣ 10 6 5
	SOUTH Robot ♠ K Q 10 9 7 2 ♥ 9 7 3 ♦ Q 10 ♣ A Q

Minus 140 is worth 71%.

As I suspected, partner played a pusillanimous four of hearts at trick one. Please don't do that, partner. The deuce or the eight. No other card is legal.

Also, I was wrong that declarer had the heart eight. I'm not sure why he played the nine at trick one. Surely that could be a useful card.

No one tried a one-notrump overcall, but a few players did bid two clubs. This worked out poorly for a strange reason. North doubled and South judged to bid two notrump rather than two spades, scoring 150. Steering the opponents into spades instead of notrump was not the reason I rejected the two-club overcall, but I'll take it.

Declarer could have made four in the end position to beat the plus 150s. He can rise with the diamond jack, then run trumps coming down to:

	NORTH Robot ♠ -- ♥ K ♦ 6 ♣ 7
WEST Phillip ♠ -- ♥ -- ♦ 7 ♣ K J		EAST Robot ♠ -- ♥ Q ♦ -- ♣ 10 6
	SOUTH Robot ♠ -- ♥ 7 ♦ -- ♣ A Q

Now a heart to the king squeezes me in the minors. Of course, he had no reason to believe I had the club king--or any reason to believe the jack of diamonds would live. If he plays the diamond jack and partner ruffs it, he loses his discard. So I hardly blame him for taking the line he took.