Free Weekly Instant Tournament - January 13 - Board 5

Board 5
Our side vulnerable

♠ K J 8 2  ♥ A Q 8  ♦ J 7 2  ♣ A K Q

Two passes to me. I have 20 HCP and a balanced hand, so I open with 2NT, showing 20 to 21. Partner raises to 3NT. West leads the club four.

	NORTH Robot ♠ Q 3 ♥ 10 9 6 ♦ K Q 9 8 6 ♣ 7 5 2
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ K J 8 2 ♥ A Q 8 ♦ J 7 2 ♣ A K Q

West	North	East	South
Robot	Robot	Robot	Phillip
	Pass	Pass	2 NT
Pass	3 NT	(All pass)

If the opponents can hold up twice in diamonds, they may be able to prevent me from running the diamond suit. I can reach dummy with the spade queen if the ace is on my left.  But if it's on my right, I can be held to two diamonds, two spades, and three clubs. If that's the case, I'll need to take two heart tricks to make this.

I play a low club from dummy, and East plays the nine. Which card should I win this trick with? East's nine could be from the nine alone, from ten-nine, or from jack-ten-nine. If it's from the nine alone and I win with the king, East will know I have the queen. If I didn't, his partner would have queen-jack-ten and would have led the queen. If I win with the queen, there is a variety of holdings his partner could have. So winning with the queen creates the most ambiguity from East's perspective.

How about from West's perspective? If West has the jack, he will know I have ace-king-queen whichever card I win with. So it looks right to win with the queen, concealing my holding from East.

I win with the queen. How should I start diamonds? The normal play is to lead low, catering to a stiff ace on my left. The problem with that approach is that, if I win the first diamond trick in dummy, I won't know yet whether diamonds are running. If I play jack of diamonds, then a diamond to dummy and it holds, I know there is a 50% chance this is the last time I will be in dummy, and I can plan the play accordingly.

How should I continue if I win the second diamond in dummy? If the spade ace is on my left, I want to continue diamonds. If it's on my right, I want to take a heart finesse, hoping to score two diamonds, two spades, three clubs, and two hearts. The spade ace and heart king are equally likely to be onside, but the heart finesse offers an additional advantage: Even if it loses, I may be able to endplay someone into leading hearts for me, enabling me to finesse against the jack. So the heart finesse offers my best chance to make the contract.

If I play a low diamond now and win the first diamond in dummy, my best continuation is less clear. Continuing diamonds is right if the spade ace is onside or if the diamond ace is doubleton. Still, the heart finesse offers excellent chances. It works if whichever honor I decide to finesse is onside or if I can maneuver an endplay. I suspect it's still right to take the heart finesse. And if I'm going to take the heart finesse however I play diamonds, it must be right to take my best play in the diamond suit and lead a low one now.

Which low card should I lead? If someone has ace third, his partner will echo to show a doubleton. I want to make it appear he is playing his lowest card from three. If West has ace third and I return to my hand for the second diamond play, he will have to make his decision before seeing his partner's second card. So if it appears East has three diamond, West may decide to win the second diamond. Is that possible for East's echo to be ambiguous? Yes. If his doubleton is headed by the five or four, then when he echoes, it will be possible he is playing low from J75 (or J74)--assuming, that is, that I haven't given the show away by playing the seven myself. So I must lead the deuce. Leading the seven would be an error.

I lead the diamond deuce. West plays the four. I play the king from dummy, and West follows with the three. Each opponent has played his lowest diamond. That's encouraging. It means no one has two small. If the suit splits three-two, it's likely that the hand with the doubleton didn't echo because he has the ace.

If I'm wrong about the position and diamonds aren't coming home, this could be the last time I'm in dummy. So it's probably a good idea to follow through with my plan of using this entry to take a heart finesse. If my only goal is to develop a second heart trick, it makes no difference whether I lead the ten and ride it or whether I lead to the queen. The jack and the king are equally likely to be onside. But if I lead to the queen, there is some chance I could wind up with eleven tricks: four diamonds, three clubs, two spades, and two hearts. If I ride the ten, I will probably lose to one honor or the other, and making five will no longer be possible.

I lead the heart ten, East plays the five, and I play the queen, losing to the king. West now shifts to the four of spades. If he has the ace, this was a very good play. It deprives me of my dummy entry prematurely. Now my only chance at running the diamond suit is finding the ace doubleton.

There is no reason to play the queen. If I play low, East may take the ace. If he doesn't, he must play the ten or nine, and my eight may come into play later. I play low, East plays the nine, and I win with the jack.

I have to lead the diamond jack to unblock the suit. If West plays the ten, I can overtake. If East then takes the ace, I'm in good shape. If not, I'm in dummy to finesse against the heart jack.

What will I do if West doesn't play the ten and the jack holds the trick? I can't run diamonds, and I can't take the heart finesse. I'll have only eight tricks after driving the spade ace. But I may be able to find a ninth in the end position.

I lead the diamond jack. West takes the ace. Yay! It appears I was right about the diamond suit. East played low from three small and West had ace doubleton. West cashes the ace of spades, and I have the rest. Making four.

	NORTH Robot ♠ Q 3 ♥ 10 9 6 ♦ K Q 9 8 6 ♣ 7 5 2
WEST Robot ♠ A 10 7 4 ♥ K 4 2 ♦ A 5 4 ♣ J 6 4		EAST Robot ♠ 9 6 5 ♥ J 7 5 3 ♦ 10 3 ♣ 10 9 8 3
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ K J 8 2 ♥ A Q 8 ♦ J 7 2 ♣ A K Q

Plus 630 is worth 64%.

I was wrong about the diamond suit after all. East failed to give count. Perhaps he thought he shouldn't squander the ten, but it's hard to see how that could matter. And failing to give count cost. It tricked his partner into winning the second diamond.

Had West ducked my diamond jack, I would then lead a spade. West must take his ace, else I'm in dummy for my heart finesse. He will then cash the diamond ace and exit with a club. I will take my two club tricks, reaching this position:

	NORTH Robot ♠ -- ♥ 9 6 ♦ K 9 ♣ --
WEST Robot ♠ 10 7 ♥ 4 2 ♦ -- ♣ --		EAST Robot ♠ 6 ♥ J 7 ♦ -- ♣ 10
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ K 8 ♥ A 8 ♦ -- ♣ --

This was the potential end position I alluded to above. I cash the spade king, hoping the ten drops. When it doesn't, I lead a spade. If West wins and doesn't hold the last club, I'm home. If East wins and doesn't hold the last club, he must lead a heart, and I can take the finesse.

I make my contract on that line, but I lose the overtrick. In retrospect, maybe taking the heart finesse when I was in dummy was an error. It's the right play at IMPs, because it gives me my best shot at nine tricks. But it's not so clear at matchpoints. As the cards lie, it loses the overtrick against best defense. It could also lose overtricks on a variety of other layouts, even when the finesse wins.

Suppose, for example, the finesse wins and I lead another diamond. It turns out the ace is doubleton. The defense takes the ace and lead another heart. I make my contract, but I can make five if I knock out the diamond ace right away.

Even if the diamond ace is third, taking the finesse could be wrong. I take the heart finesse. It wins. I play the jack of diamonds. It holds. Now I switch to spades and take nine tricks. If he spade ace was on my right, I did well. But if it was on my left, I again made three when I could have made five.

There is fair chance that continuing diamonds will work. The ace could be doubleton. Or the suit could break favorably (three-two or ace-ten fourth on my left) with the spade ace onside. A priori, that adds up to a little more than 50%. It's well over 50% if we consider the fact that neither defender echoed in diamonds. Is it really right to take the heart finesse and give up my best chance for overtricks to guard against something that is less than even money to happen?

Take a look at the first paragraph of my analysis. ("If the opponents can hold up twice in diamonds...") As Barry Crane has said, "IMPs is for pessimists; matchpoints is for optimists." That first paragraph betrays a pessimistic, IMP style of thinking. If Crane were writing this blog, his first sentence would have been more along the lines of, "I'm starting with ten tricks if I can run the diamonds."

Free Weekly Instant Tournament - January 6 - Board 4

Board 4
Both vulnerable

♠ A 8  ♥ A 6 5 2  ♦ K 10 8 7  ♣ Q 7 3

LHO deals and passes. Partner passes, and RHO opens with one diamond. I have an opening bid, but I don't have support for the unbid suits, so I can't double. Besides, they've bid my best suit. When that happens, it's usually right to pass.

I pass, LHO responds one spade, partner passes, and RHO bids one notrump. Again I have no reason to bid. I pass.

LHO corrects to two diamonds, which is passed around to me. Partner has at most one diamond and passed up two opportunities to enter the auction, so he doesn't have much. While I don't in general like to defend at the two level when the opponents have found a fit, I have no reason to believe we can make anything, and we have good chances to beat two diamonds. So I pass once again.

It's not clear what to lead. I'd like to lead declarer's shortness to start an assault on his trump suit. But I don't know what his shortness is. Any of the three side suits could be right. And any is dangerous. I choose a club simply on the principle that's it's usually wrong to lead from an ace. But I have no confidence it's right. Clubs could easily be declarer's best suit.

	NORTH Robot ♠ K 9 6 4 ♥ Q 10 ♦ Q 9 5 4 ♣ 8 6 5
WEST Phillip ♠ A 8 ♥ A 6 5 2 ♦ K 10 8 7 ♣ Q 7 3

West	North	East	South
Phillip	Robot	Robot	Robot
	Pass	Pass	1 ♦
Pass	1 ♠	Pass	1 NT
Pass	2 ♦	(All pass)

Dummy and I have 20 HCP combined, leaving 20 for the unseen hands. Declarer has 12 to 14, so that leaves partner with six to eight HCP. Let's hope some of them are in clubs.

Some of them--in fact, most of them--are. Partner takes the club ace, declarer following with the four, and returns the jack. Declarer plays the king.

I'd like to unblock. Could partner be returning the jack without the ten? Might he have ace-jack third? It seems unlikely that he would he be selling to two diamonds with nine cards in the majors. And if declarer loses control, I certainly don't want clubs to be blocked. So I play the queen.

What do I expect declarer to do now? If he has a doubleton spade, he will probably lead a spade, preparing to ruff spades in his hand. If he doesn't play a spade, it's likely he has three.

He doesn't. He plays a heart, presumably trying to reach dummy to take a trump finesse. If he wins in dummy and plays a diamond to the jack, it's probably right to duck. If I win, I have nothing useful to do, and declarer will have an easy time. If I duck and declarer then cashes the trump ace, he will be in trouble. I will be able to draw his trump when I get in.

I play a low heart. Declarer plays the ten, and partner wins with the king. I wasn't expecting that. That's partner's last high-card point. Declarer has everything else.We have five tricks in top cards. We need one more to beat this.

I expect partner to play a club, but he shifts to the three of diamonds and declarer plays the deuce. Surely partner would have tried to cash a club if it were possible one was cashing. That must mean he started with five, making declarer 3-4-4-2. 

I don't care for this diamond shift. Ducking is unlikely to be effective now what declarer knows I have the diamond king. Still, I don't see how ducking can hurt. If I win the diamond and play a club and declarer ruffs, the defense can never score more than my two aces. And if declarer has another club, our club trick isn't going anywhere. I can always cash it when I win the heart ace.

I play the diamond seven. Declarer wins in dummy with the nine and, to my surprise, plays another diamond. Partner discards the club deuce, and declarer takes his ace. Declarer now leads the spade queen. I take the ace, reaching this position:

	NORTH Robot ♠ K 9 6 ♥ Q ♦ Q 4 ♣ 5
WEST Phillip ♠ 8 ♥ A 5 2 ♦ K 10 ♣ 7

If I draw trumps, declarer can't afford to drive my heart ace. He must cash however many spades he can, leaving the rest for us. If he has queen-jack-ten of spades, we'll take the last two tricks for down one. If partner has the spade ten, we'll take the last three tricks for down two.

I play king and a diamond. Partner pitches the eight and three of hearts. That suggests he has the spade suit stopped. Indeed he does. Declarer cashes two spades, and we have the rest. Down two.

	NORTH Robot ♠ K 9 6 4 ♥ Q 10 ♦ Q 9 5 4 ♣ 8 6 5
WEST Phillip ♠ A 8 ♥ A 6 5 2 ♦ K 10 8 7 ♣ Q 7 3		EAST Robot ♠ 10 7 3 2 ♥ K 8 3 ♦ 3 ♣ A J 10 9 2
	SOUTH Robot ♠ Q J 5 ♥ J 9 7 4 ♦ A J 6 2 ♣ K 4

Plus 200 is worth 96%. Five of the ten declarers in two diamonds made their contract. Only one other declarer was down two.

A more astute declarer might have made this by not playing a second round of trumps. I gave him the contract when I ducked my heart ace. If I hop and play ace and a spade, I can get a spade ruff when I'm in with the diamond king. Once I ducked, we could no longer beat this by force.

Should I have hopped with the heart ace? It's not clear. I had no particular reason to think partner had the heart king, but playing him for that card is an easy way to beat this. And, while my plan of ducking when declarer plays a diamond to jack seemed like a strong defense, I didn't have a clear route to six tricks in mind. I was just playing on general principles.

Playing for a layout where you can see a sure beat is often better than playing on general principles and hoping something good happens. Still, hopping and going after a spade ruff is playing for a very specific layout. I'm not sure what the best defense was.

Free Weekly Instant Tournament - December 30 - Board 3

Board 3
Opponents vulnerable

♠ K Q 7 2  ♥ K Q 8 2  ♦ Q 10  ♣ Q J 3

I have 15 HCP. Before bridge players started counting points, no one would consider opening a strong notrump with this hand. It has two and half honor tricks, and a strong notrump contains three and half to four. For a while I experimenting with avoiding one-notrump openings with hands like this one. It didn't work out well. But not for the reason you might expect. Opening with one of a minor let the opponents get into the auction too easily. I was losing boards not because I was missing games but because I lost the pre-emptive effect of a one-notrump opening. Paradoxically, it was precisely because my hand wasn't actually worth one notrump (at least not defensively) that it was important to open one notrump anyway and keep the opponents out of the auction.

Having learned my lesson, I upgrade and open with one notrump. Everyone passes. See? I silenced the opponents.

	NORTH Robot ♠ 9 8 4 ♥ A 7 ♦ 9 8 6 ♣ A 10 9 8 5
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ K Q 7 2 ♥ K Q 8 2 ♦ Q 10 ♣ Q J 3

West	North	East	South
Robot	Robot	Robot	Phillip
			1 NT
(All pass)

West leads the spade five. The three is out, so this could be from length or from shortness.

The opponents can take the spade ace and some number of diamonds. If the club king is offside, I need to hope that number is four, else I'm going down.

I play the spade nine from dummy, starting an unblock, since I may want to finesse the seven at some point. I'm not too concerned this will reveal I have good spades. My play could easily be a ruse.

East takes the ace and shifts to the heart jack. The robots never seem to return their partner's suit. And, since their partners seldom lead their best suit, who can blame them? Fortunately, East didn't pick the right suit to shift to. What's the best way to keep him from shifting to diamonds if the club finesse loses?

I could win in dummy, concealing the fact that I have the heart king, then lead a spade to my hand for the club finesse. I'm not sure I care for that line, however. Not only does it give the show away that I have good spades, but it may strip RHO of his last spade, preventing him from shifting back to that suit. Perhaps it's better to win in my hand with the heart king. If West thinks his partner has the queen, he might continue hearts. And the option of returning his partner's suit is still open to him. Winning with the heart king gives him two ways to go wrong instead of one.

I play the heart king, and West plays the nine. I play the club queen--six--five--king. East shifts to the diamond deuce. Oh, well. He found it.

Is the diamond queen or ten more likely to get West to shift to a different suit after winning the diamond? If West doesn't have the jack, the ten is probably better. If he wins with the king, he may think I have ace-jack-ten; if he wins with the ace, he may think I have king-jack ten. Either way there is no future in the suit. If West does have the jack, the queen may work better. If he has ace-jack, for example, he may think I have king-queen-ten and be afraid to return the suit.

I don't have much to go on. It seems like pretty much of a toss-up. But there is one consideration that tips the scales. East may have both the ace and king. Is that possible? This is a best-hand tournament, so he is limited to 15 HCP. Ace of spades, jack of hearts, king of clubs. That's eight HCP. Yes, there is room for the ace-king of diamonds.

I go up with the queen. West plays three. Wow! Did I make the right play for the right reason? Did East really underlead the ace-king?

I have four clubs, three hearts, two spades, and a diamond. Ten tricks. I've lost two, so I have only one loser left. Do I have a squeeze? Since West presumably has the diamond jack, the only possible squeeze is a heart-spade squeeze against East. But it doesn't hurt to play it as a double squeeze anyway in case  I've misread the position. The double threat must be spades, since it's the only suit with an entry

I play a heart to the ace, a club to my jack, and cash the heart queen. West pitches the five of diamonds. I could cash a spade without destroying the squeeze matrix. But there is no reason to. Better to conceal my spade strength.

I play a club to dummy. West pitches the four of diamonds. I've reached this position:

	NORTH Robot ♠ 8 4 ♥ -- ♦ 9 ♣ 8 5
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ K Q 7 ♥ 8 ♦ 10 ♣ --

On the penultimate club, East pitches the diamond three. I have no use for the diamond ten. Dummy's nine works as the diamond threat, so I pitch my diamond. West pitches the spade six. I have now reached the classic double-squeeze position. East holds the heart guard. If West holds the diamond guard, neither opponent can hold spades. Of course, that's not possible. West can hardly hold ace-king-jack of diamonds.

I cash the last club. East pitches the diamond seven. Presumably he has ace-king of diamonds and the heart ten left, leaving West with the diamond jack and three spades. I pitch the heart eight, and West pitches the diamond jack. To my surprise, both opponents follow when I lead a spade from dummy, so my hand is good. Making five.

	NORTH Robot ♠ 9 8 4 ♥ A 7 ♦ 9 8 6 ♣ A 10 9 8 5
WEST Robot ♠ J 10 6 5 ♥ 9 4 ♦ A J 5 4 3 ♣ 6 4		EAST Robot ♠ A 3 ♥ J 10 6 5 3 ♦ K 7 2 ♣ K 7 2
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ K Q 7 2 ♥ K Q 8 2 ♦ Q 10 ♣ Q J 3

Plus 210 is worth 93%.

So West had ace-jack of diamonds and ducked the queen! He thought I had king-queen third and he was hoping his partner had an entry? What entry would that be? I suppose East might have held the club jack. East's diamond deuce was no help, because the robots sometimes lead low from small doubletons.

In the end position, West was still playing me for the diamond king, so he held the wrong suit. East couldn't afford the informative pitch of the diamond king, else West really would be squeezed.

Most declarers who reached the same position I did at trick four chose the diamond ten rather than the queen. West still misread the position. He took the jack and shifted. So either play sufficed to dissuade West from returning the suit. But the queen had the additional merit of winning the trick. There was no way to make five after the ten lost to the jack.

Free Weekly Instant Tournament - December 23 - Board 2

Board 2
Our side vulnerable

♠ A 9 4 3 2  ♥ Q 3  ♦ 10 3  ♣ A J 5 3

RHO opens with two hearts. One generally needs at least an opening bid to overcall a weak two-bid. While some would consider this hand an opening bid, it certainly doesn't qualify once you devalue the heart queen. It could be right to overcall anyway. I have the spade suit and heart shortness, both of which argue for being aggressive. But it still feels too thin for me, especially at this vulnerability. At matchpoints, the vulnerable game bonus doesn't compensate for the danger of going minus 200.

I pass, LHO passes, and partner balances with two spades.

Despite my five-card support, this hand, with eight losers, is worth only a strong invitation. In a competitive auction, it's OK to overbid with a ten-card fit, since, if you go down, it is likely the opponents could make something. But on this deal the opponents have shown no interest in bidding past the two-level, so going down at the four level is unlikely to be a good result. I'll simply show my limit raise by bidding three hearts.

Over three hearts, partner bids four spades and buys it. RHO leads the diamond ace.

	NORTH Phillip ♠ A 9 4 3 2 ♥ Q 3 ♦ 10 3 ♣ A J 5 3
	SOUTH Robot ♠ K Q J 8 6 ♥ K 7 5 4 2 ♦ Q 5 ♣ 6

West	North	East	South
Robot	Phillip	Robot	Robot
2 ♥	Pass	Pass	2 ♠
Pass	3 ♥	Pass	4 ♠
(All pass)

If partner accepts an invitation with that hand, I was right only to invite. The five-card heart suit is a serious liability, since it gives him a lot of losers to dispose of. If I had only three-card spade support, he would need me to have quite a good hand to have any chance of making this. Even with four spades, I would need good trump spots to avoid overruffs. I would have settled for three spades with partner's hand.

I'm off three fast tricks and a heart ruff, so I can't make this against best defense. But the fact that East is void in hearts may prove fortunate. If West continues diamonds at trick two, East loses his ruff, since he doesn't have a stiff heart to shift to.

East foolishly encourages with the diamond nine. Which card is more likely to induce West to continue diamonds? The five or the queen? If I play the queen, West may worry I have a singleton. If I play the five, he can be fairly sure I have another diamond, since his partner, with king-queen-jack, would play the king rather than the nine if he wished to encourage. In addition, I need to make sure East wins the next diamond trick. If I play the queen, East may be able to underplay West's spot at trick two.

Accordingly, I play the five. West, sadly, ignores his partner's signal and shifts to the heart ace. East pitches the club four, gets his heart ruff, and cashes the diamond king. I take the rest for down one.

	NORTH Phillip ♠ A 9 4 3 2 ♥ Q 3 ♦ 10 3 ♣ A J 5 3
WEST Robot ♠ 10 5 ♥ A J 10 9 8 6 ♦ A ♣ 10 9 8 7		EAST Robot ♠ 7 ♥ -- ♦ K J 9 8 7 6 4 2 ♣ K Q 4 2
	SOUTH Robot ♠ K Q J 8 6 ♥ K 7 5 4 2 ♦ Q 5 ♣ 6

An eight-one diamond split! West had no diamond to continue, so I had no chance to make this. Obviously East should have discouraged at trick one, since, if his partner had the thirteenth diamond, East certainly didn't want him to play it. East signaled with blinders on, looking only at his diamond holding rather than at the entire hand. He was lucky not to be punished. 

Some might play the diamond jack at trick one as an alarm-clock signal to suggest a void somewhere. I don't think that's the right use of the alarm-clock signal. The alarm-clock doesn't necessarily suggest a void. It says, "I don't want a continuation. But if I discourage, you will shift to the wrong suit. Please lead the other one." In this case, the natural shift is to a heart, not to dummy's source of tricks. So "the other one" is clubs. Perhaps you have the king-queen of clubs and can see an endplay coming if you don't get a club shift.

Minus 100 is worth only 25%. Plus 140 would not have been much better, scoring 43%. To get a good board, I have to overcall with two spades. We make game from my side unless East leads a diamond, and the club king is his normal lead. Over half the field did overcall. It's possible my judgment is wrong and overcalling is the percentage action. But if so, this deal is not evidence of that fact. The reason the overcall worked was rather random, having nothing to do with the merits of the bid.

Free Weekly Instant Tournament - December 16 (Beethoven's Birthday) - Board 1

Board 1
Neither vulnerable

♠ A K 10 8 7 2  ♥ K 7  ♦ A J  ♣ K J 5

Partner opens with two hearts. The robots tend to have good suits for their weak two-bids, so it's likely partner has ace-queen sixth. We could have a slam if we have a spade fit, so I'll start with two spades to find out. If partner raises, I'll bid Blackwood. If he bids three hearts, I'll settle for four hearts or three notrump. I'm not sure which, but there's no reason to worry about that yet.

Over two spades, partner bids two notrump. Since we don't have a spade fit, I'll give up on slam. As far as which game to play, I was contemplating three notrump even before partner suggested it. So I'll accept his suggestion.

I bid three notrump. Everyone passes and RHO leads the three of diamonds.

	NORTH Phillip ♠ A K 10 8 7 2 ♥ K 7 ♦ A J ♣ K J 5
	SOUTH Robot ♠ 5 ♥ A Q J 9 5 3 ♦ K 10 8 ♣ 10 8 4

West	North	East	South
Robot	Phillip	Robot	Robot
			2 ♥
Pass	2 ♠	Pass	2 NT
Pass	3 NT	(All pass)

That looks more like a one-heart opening to me. But it wasn't my decision to make.

Assuming hearts come home, I have eleven tricks after this lead. If I can take a club trick, I have twelve. Some pairs will be in four hearts, and it's not clear how many tricks they will take. If they can set up spades, they might make seven. But I can't beat that result, so it's not a concern. There may, however, be some plus 480s, which I can beat if I guess the clubs.

I play the diamond jack from dummy. East covers with the queen and I win with the king. The diamond deuce is still out.

I can't run hearts before guessing clubs, since I would have to cash my diamonds as well, setting up diamonds tricks for them. And it's not clear that would give me any useful information anyway. I might as well play clubs now. Perhaps I can exploit the robots' tendency to cover an honor with an honor anytime it might gain. If I lead the club ten, will West cover with the queen? If he knew I had the diamond ten, he might not, since he would know a second club trick is of no use to me. But with the information he has, not covering may cost a trick. So I'm fairly sure he will cover.

I lead the club ten. West plays the six, so I go up with the king. No luck. East takes the ace. I assume it didn't matter. East presumably has the queen as well.

East shifts to the six of diamonds. West plays the five and I win in dummy. I still haven't seen the deuce.

Is there any chance to make six? I might have a black-suit squeeze against East. Unfortunately both the club jack and spade ten are in front of him. The only possible threat behind him is the club eight, so I would need to find East with the only spade guard and with queen-nine of clubs. If I hadn't led the ten, it would work as a threat, so I wouldn't need East to hold the nine. Too late now.

I cash the heart king, and East discards the spade four. Whoa! I'm down to four heart tricks. I have two spades and three diamonds, so I'm still making this. Is it possible to make an overtrick?

I have four hearts and three diamonds to cash and I've lost a club trick. So I'll be down to five cards in the end position. Dummy will have three spades and a doubleton club. Here's what the position will look like:

	NORTH Phillip ♠ A K 10 ♥ -- ♦ -- ♣ J 5
	SOUTH Robot ♠ 5 ♥ 9 5 ♦ -- ♣ 8 4

If East has the only spade guard, he is in trouble. If he holds three spades and two clubs, I can endplay him in spades. If he stiffs the queen of clubs, I can duck it out. He may have a diamond to cash, but then I'll take the last three tricks. If he has a small diamond to lead to his partner, the endplay won't work. So I need to hope that's not the case. 

I need to guess his shape so I know if he stiffs the club queen. The robots give count on their first discard, so the spade four is either lowest from three or five or third best from four. It's hard to believe he doesn't have a more attractive discard than a spade from a four-card suit, so it's probably three or five. Given his heart void, it's more likely five. I still don't know how diamonds split. West could have three or four--conceivably even five, since the deuce is still missing.

On the next heart, East discards the diamond deuce. So I now know West began with three or four diamonds. On the next two hearts, East discards the club three, then the deuce. The robots don't always give accurate count after the first play in a suit, so I can't read too much into the echo. But I doubt he would stiff the club queen without knowing I have a third diamond winner. So my best guess is East is 5-0-3-5, which is good news, since that means he won't have a diamond exit in the end position. If my construction is correct, East has four spades and queen doubleton of clubs remaining.

I cash the diamond ten. West plays the nine; East, the seven. So my construction is wrong. East started with at least four diamonds. I can still endplay him if he's 4-0-4-5. But is that possible? I said earlier I didn't think he would pitch a spade from four, and I see no reason to change my mind. Most likely he's 3-0-5-5, probably with three small spades, since I doubt he would have pitched from honor third.

If that's the layout, I can't endplay East. Can I endplay West? West should be down to

♠ Q J 3  ♥10  ♦ --  ♣ x

When I lead a spade, he will split, and I will take the ace. Now I can lead a low club from dummy. If West's club spot is the nine, I have him. If East hops with the queen, he gives me the club jack. If he ducks, West wins with the nine. He can cash the ten of hearts but must then lead a spade into dummy's king ten.

That seems like my best chance at this point. I play a spade. Will I have the courage of my convictions and play the ten if West plays low? West doesn't put me to the test. He inserts the jack. I take the ace and lead a low club. Unfortunately, it is East who wins with the nine. He has a club and a diamond to cash. I take the spade king at the end. Making three.

	NORTH Phillip ♠ A K 10 8 7 2 ♥ K 7 ♦ A J ♣ K J 5
WEST Robot ♠ Q J 3 ♥ 10 8 6 4 2 ♦ 9 5 3 ♣ 7 6		EAST Robot ♠ 9 6 4 ♥ -- ♦ Q 7 6 4 2 ♣ A Q 9 3 2
	SOUTH Robot ♠ 5 ♥ A Q J 9 5 3 ♦ K 10 8 ♣ 10 8 4

Almost the entire field is in four hearts, which I find surprising. I expected some pairs to play four hearts, but this seemed like a pretty routine auction. (At least from my side of the table. And we are all playing with the same partner.) 

Four hearts made four, so plus 400 is worth 11%. Had I led a small club at trick two instead of the ten, I would have scored 430 for 100%. Little did I know I had won the whole board in the auction.

Did I make a mistake? I don't think so. Against these opponents, the club ten gives me a 75% chance to take a club trick instead of a 50% chance. The only time it costs is when both club honors are offside and hearts are five-zero offside. It's wrong to forgo the vig in leading the club ten for fear of a layout as unlikely as this one.

Free Weekly Instant Tournament - December 9 - Board 8

Board 8
Neither vulnerable

I started this week's tournament with a zero, going down in a marginal slam that no one else reached. But I've managed to pull my score up to 74% going into the final board:

♠ A K J 7  ♥ Q 9 7 5  ♦ A 3  ♣ A 6 3

Three passes to me. With 18 HCP and a balanced hand, I have a routine two-notrump rebid. I start with one club. Partner responds with one heart. My heart queen has gone up in value, so I can re-evaluate this hand as a game force. I bid four hearts and partner passes. RHO leads the diamond five.

	NORTH Phillip ♠ A K J 7 ♥ Q 9 7 5 ♦ A 3 ♣ A 6 3
	SOUTH Robot ♠ 6 5 ♥ J 10 8 2 ♦ K J 10 ♣ K Q 10 4

West	North	East	South
Robot	Phillip	Robot	Robot
		Pass	Pass
Pass	1 ♣	Pass	1 ♥
Pass	4 ♥	(All pass)

The diamond five isn't very informative. It could be from shortness or length. Since the four and deuce are missing, it could even be from a six-card suit. 

While the lead isn't informative, it at least picks up the diamond queen for me. I have ten tricks after knocking out the top hearts. If trumps are three-two, I can score an eleventh trick via a ruff. A ruff may be problematic if trumps are four-one.

Sometimes one can cater to a bad trump break by taking a ruff early. Does that work here? Let's say I play ace, king, and ruff a spade now. Already there are problems with this line. Someone may ruff the second spade, or someone may pitch a club on the third spade, setting up an eventual club ruff.

And those aren't my only problems. After I ruff a spade, say I lead a heart and it holds. Now what? I've exposed a spade loser. So if I play another trump, the defense may be able to draw dummy's trumps and cash a spade. To prevent that, I have to ruff my last spade, giving the opponents another chance to pitch a club and set up a club ruff.

It might be worth taking the risk of an early spade ruff if not for the fact that I have other chances for an eleventh trick. The clubs may come home, I may have a black-suit squeeze, or I may take a spade finesse. Given I have those other chances in reserve, I'll forgo the early ruff.

I play a low diamond from dummy. East plays the queen, and I win with the king. I want to keep all high trumps in dummy in case I do decide to ruff a spade and draw trumps. So I lead the heart jack--three--five--king. East shifts to the club deuce. I could insert the ten, which would be my eleventh trick if it held. But a shift from the jack into dummy's ace third is unattractive. It's more likely West has jack doubleton and inserting the ten would give up my chance to drop it. I can always finesse East for the jack later if I change my mind. So I go up with the king, retaining a club entry to each hand.

I play the heart deuce and West discards the three of spades. I play the seven, and East underplays with the six. So the four-one trump break I was worried about transpired. Should I ruff a spade now? Say I play ace and king of spades (hoping they both cash) and ruff a spade. If East shows out on the third spade, I'm home. I just lead the ten of hearts to the queen. Whether East wins or ducks, nothing bad can happen.

What if East follows to the third spade? Then I'm down to this position:

	NORTH Phillip ♠ J ♥ Q 9 ♦ A ♣ A 6
	SOUTH Robot ♠ -- ♥ 10 ♦ J 10 ♣ Q 10 4

If the spade jack isn't high, I have to ruff it. Can I do that safely? Diamond to the ace. Club ace (hoping it cashes), to guard against East's pitching his last club as I ruff the spade. Now I take my ruff. East is down to two trumps and one minor-suit card. I have to guess which minor suit and cash the right winner. Then my only loser is the trump ace.

There are too many ways that line can fail. It seems better just to drive the trump ace now and hope I can score an eleventh trick in the black suits. We're back to this position:

	NORTH Phillip ♠ A K J 7 ♥ Q 9 ♦ A ♣ A 6
	SOUTH Robot ♠ 6 5 ♥ 10 8 ♦ J 10 ♣ Q 10 4

I lead the heart nine. East takes the ace as West discards the seven of diamonds. I haven't seen the four or deuce, so I'm still not sure how diamonds are splitting.

East plays his last trump, and West discards the club nine. Unless West began with five clubs, my clubs are now good. If he did, I have to hope the spade queen drops or West is squeezed.

I win with the heart queen and cash the club ace. East follows, so I claim.

	NORTH Phillip ♠ A K J 7 ♥ Q 9 7 5 ♦ A 3 ♣ A 6 3
WEST Robot ♠ Q 10 9 4 3 ♥ 3 ♦ 9 8 7 5 ♣ J 9 5		EAST Robot ♠ 8 2 ♥ A K 6 4 ♦ Q 6 4 2 ♣ 8 7 2
	SOUTH Robot ♠ 6 5 ♥ J 10 8 2 ♦ K J 10 ♣ K Q 10 4

Plus 450 is worth 61%. The only person to do better opened with one notrump then refused to show a four-card major over Stayman. He reached three notrump, making five.

I don't know why people think you have to do bizarre things to win. I averaged 72% doing nothing more than trying to take the percentage action at every turn. And if I had actually succeeded in taking the percentage action at every turn, I would have done better. Surely that's a more promising approach--and more rewarding even if you don't end up winning.

Free Weekly Instant Tournament - December 2 - Board 7

Board 7
Both vulnerable

♠ K 10 9 6 4 3  ♥ A Q 5  ♦ A 5  ♣ 8 5

I open with one spade, and partner bids one notrump. I bid two spades, and partner raises to four. Partner probably has a three-card limit raise. Once I've shown a sixth spade, a three-card limit raise becomes a game drive.

Everyone passes, and West leads the diamond three.

	NORTH Robot ♠ Q 5 ♥ K 9 6 3 ♦ K J 10 ♣ K 7 6 3
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ K 10 9 6 4 3 ♥ A Q 5 ♦ A 5 ♣ 8 5

West	North	East	South
Robot	Robot	Robot	Phillip
			1 ♠
Pass	1 NT	Pass	2 ♠
Pass	4 ♠	(All pass)

Hmm. Partner upgraded his two notrump rebid to a game drive. I think that's a mistake. The sixth spade doesn't significantly improve your hand when you have only two trumps. Fortunately, this is a decent game, but that's because I have a clear acceptance over three spades.

I play the diamond ten from dummy. If East has the queen, he should duck this. I get three diamond tricks whether he covers or not, but it must be better to tangle up the suit and give me communication problems. East doesn't see it that way. He covers with the queen, and I take the ace.

It's tempting to cash my diamonds and pitch a club. But that could work out badly. For one thing, West may have a doubleton diamond and score a ruff with the club ace onside all along. For another, after I take my pitch, I'm in the wrong hand to start trumps. I'd like to play the first trump from my hand to guard against ace-jack tight on my left. But if I cross to my hand with a heart, I expose myself to a possible heart ruff. 

Even if no one has a singleton heart, I could run into problems. Say I lead a heart to my hand, then a spade to the queen and ace. East plays a second heart. I win in dummy and finesse against the spade jack. It loses, and West gives his partner a heart ruff--or crosses to the club ace and gets one himself.

Perhaps I'm better off postponing the pitch. I could lead a spade to the queen at trick two. Playing a spade now could work out badly also. If West has the spade ace and East has the club ace, West could hop and lead a club, making me wish I'd taken my pitch. But there is only a 25% chance both aces are wrong. And even if they are, why should West find the winning defense? If he had some club holding where shifting to a club is safe (queen-jack-ten, for example), he would have led a club at trick one. So hopping and shifting to clubs has to entail some risk.

Whenever declarer might take an early pitch but doesn't, it suggests either that he can't (on this deal, for example, that I have ace third of diamonds) or that the pitch is unnecessary (on this deal, that I have the club ace). So West might reason that hopping with the spade ace and shifting to clubs is unlikely to be the right defense.

It's a common mistake to forget that the opponents can't see your hand. Worrying that they will find some double-dummy defense is fine if you can cater to that possibility with virtually no risk. But that's not the case here. The risk in taking the pitch may be small, but it's not insignificant. The risk that the opponents will find the killing defense probably is insignificant.

I play the spade three--deuce--queen--ace. East plays the diamond eight. I win in dummy as West follows with the seven. At this point, I have to take the pitch. At least I now know that West didn't start with a doubleton diamond.

Could I set myself up for an uppercut by taking the pitch? Suppose West has three diamonds and jack-eight fourth of spades. I take my pitch and lead a spade. East shows out. I take the king and concede a trick to the jack. If East has the club ace, West can now lead a club to him for a fourth diamond, scoring his spade eight. But If East has the club ace, there was never anything I could do. I could stop the uppercut, but then I would have to lose two club tricks. So there is no reason not to take the pitch.

I cash the last diamond, pitching a club. East follows with the six; West, with the nine. I lead a spade from dummy and East follow with the eight.  I finesse the nine, and West pitches the heart eight. So I have another spade loser plus a club loser unless East started with three hearts. If he did, he can't ruff in until I pitch my last club. Unfortunately, West's heart eight, assuming it's a count card, makes that unlikely.

I cash the spade king as West pitches the club deuce. I've reached this position:

	NORTH Robot ♠ -- ♥ K 9 6 3 ♦ -- ♣ K 7 6
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ 10 6 4 ♥ A Q 5 ♦ -- ♣ 8

I cash the ace of hearts--seven--three--deuce. West echoed, so it appears he began with four hearts. On the other hand, why would West pitch a heart from four? He doesn't know I don't have the spade jack. If I had it, pitching from four hearts allows me to make six.

I cash the heart queen--four--six--ten, then play another heart. West follows with the jack. So he did have four hearts. I see. He must have the club ace as well. He knew he was getting squeezed if my spades were good, so pitching a heart couldn't hurt.

I play the king. East ruffs and plays a club to his partner's ace. Making four.

	NORTH Robot ♠ Q 5 ♥ K 9 6 3 ♦ K J 10 ♣ K 7 6 3
WEST Robot ♠ 2 ♥ J 8 7 4 ♦ 9 7 4 3 2 ♣ A J 2		EAST Robot ♠ A J 8 7 ♥ 10 2 ♦ Q 8 6 ♣ Q 10 9 4
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ K 10 9 6 4 3 ♥ A Q 5 ♦ A 5 ♣ 8 5

Plus 620 is worth 64%. One declarer made five. After reaching the end position above, he conceded a trump trick rather than attempting to run the hearts. East won with the jack and failed to return a club, so declarer got his discard.

After West's heart pitch, perhaps that was a better line. Since the robots almost always give count on their first discard, the only way hearts could be three-three was if West had jack-ten-eight of hearts. And if he did, he might have led one. Conceding the trump trick was my best shot. 

I forgot that East couldn't see my hand.