Board 30

Settle in. This one gets involved.

Board 30
Neither vulnerable

♠ A 9 7 3 2 ♥ 7 3 ♦ A Q 9 ♣ Q 10 5

RHO passes, and I open one spade. LHO bids three diamonds, and partner bids four spades. Everyone passes, and LHO leads the six of hearts:

	NORTH ♠ Q 10 8 ♥ A J 10 5 ♦ 6 3 ♣ A 8 7 6
	SOUTH ♠ A 9 7 3 2 ♥ 7 3 ♦ A Q 9 ♣ Q 10 5

West	North	East	South
		Pass	1 ♠
3 ♦	4 ♠	(All pass)

It's going to be hard to make this with at least one loser in every suit. I don't care much for the four spade bid. I would have made a negative double, giving partner a chance to pass with four diamonds or with a "5332" with three diamonds (like the hand I held). If partner passes, each side has at most an eight-card fit, so the Law of Total Tricks suggests that there will be only 16 tricks available. In other words, if we can make four spades, they're down three in three diamonds. The big gain comes when we can't make four spades. Then three diamonds rates to be down two. Even if the Law is off by a trick, on balance we're better off defending when both sides have an eight-card fit.

But my task now is to make four spades. To do that, I'm going to have to start by bringing home the spades, which means I need to find West with a singleton jack. If I survive that hurdle, I need to find a way to dispose of my second diamond loser. One possibility is to play West for honor third of hearts. I can finesse at trick one, losing to East's honor. (This should be safe. The lead is unlikely to be a singleton, since East didn't open two hearts.) Later, I finesse again and pitch a diamond on the heart ace. That's a possibility, but a remote one. West has no particular reason to have made such an aggressive lead.

Another possibility is to play for three club tricks. Unfortunately, I'm going to have to start clubs from my hand. I need dummy's heart entry to take the trump finesse, and East can cover the last trump if he doesn't want me in dummy. I do have a variety of ways to take three club tricks, all involving playing East for a doubleton that includes the nine. I could, for example, play East for king-nine doubleton: float the queen, then lead the ten to pin his nine. Leading the queen also works if he has jack-nine doubleton or nine doubleton. If West covers my queen, I take the ace, then lead a club to my ten. If West has jack-nine, dummy's clubs are good. If he has nine doubleton, West can duck, but a third club endplays him. He will have to lead another club for me or lead into my ace-queen of diamonds. The important thing to notice is that this line requires West to be 1-2-6-4. I don't have to commit myself yet. I can wait and see what heart spot West plays when I lead a heart toward dummy. If he plays up, I know he can't be 1-2-6-4, so I might as well fall back on the heart finesse.

I play the jack of hearts from dummy. East wins with the queen, and I drop the seven. East shifts to the five of diamonds. If I knew I was going to take the heart finesse, I could afford to hop with ace in case West has seven diamonds. But to leave open the possibility of developing clubs, which requires West to be 1-2-6-4, I must duck this. And I must play the nine to retain my tenace for the endplay I envisioned above. West wins with the ten and returns the deuce of diamonds, which East ruffs with the five of spades.

So much for the endplay. West can't be 1-2-6-4 anymore, so I'm back to relying on the heart finesse. If West does have the heart king and a singleton jack of spades, I still have a shot to make this as long as East doesn't play a heart now. Say he plays a spade. I ride this around to West's jack and dummy's queen. I cash the club ace, then run spades and cash the diamond ace. East, with his four small hearts and club king, is squeezed. It may seem like a vain hope that East won't play a heart from four small to break up the squeeze. But it's not necessarily the right play. From his point of view, I could have,

♠ A J 9 x x x ♥ x x ♦ A Q x ♣ Q x.

If so, I have a guess between finessing the heart or playing for a heart-club squeeze against East. Returning a heart takes my guess away.

East shifts to the six of spades, keeping my hopes alive. I play the deuce. Unfortunately, West wins this trick with the king of spades, so I'm down. My job now is to hold the undertricks to as few as possible. I unblock the ten from dummy. West plays the king of diamonds, which I ruff with the queen, as East pitches the deuce of clubs.

If East is pitching a club, he probably doesn't have five hearts. That means West started with three, giving him either 1-3-7-2 or 2-3-7-1. I need to decide which so I know whether to finesse East for the jack of spades or not. The first pattern is more likely a priori, since the defenders have fewer spades than clubs. In addition, West might have led a singleton club (although it's not clear how valid an inference that is when he has king doubleton of trumps). In any event, I'm going to play West for 1-3-7-2 and finesse the spade. The next problem is how to hold myself to one club loser. West is unlikely to have a second side king, so I could just play ace and a club toward my queen. But West did pre-empt opposite a passed hand, so his pre-empt might be little flaky. It would be nice if I could find a way to make it even if West does have a doubleton king of clubs. How about a trump squeeze? I could cash all my trumps but one to reach this position:

	NORTH ♠ -- ♥ A 10 5 ♦ -- ♣ A 8
	SOUTH ♠ 2 ♥ 3 ♦ -- ♣ Q 10 5

If East is down to a doubleton heart, I can establish a heart trick by ruffing. If he is down to a doubleton club, I can play ace and a club. I don't care who has either king.

I play a trump, intending to finesse. East plays the jack, I play the ace, and West follows. So West did start with 2-3-7-1? Maybe it's a stiff king of clubs and I can get out for down one. I cash three more spades. East pitches three clubs, so I play ace and a club. Down two. It turns out West was void in clubs:

	NORTH ♠ Q 10 8 ♥ A J 10 5 ♦ 6 3 ♣ A 8 7 6
WEST ♠ K 4 ♥ 9 8 6 4 ♦ K J 10 8 7 4 2 ♣ --		EAST ♠ J 6 5 ♥ K Q 2 ♦ 5 ♣ K J 9 4 3 2
	SOUTH ♠ A 9 7 3 2 ♥ 7 3 ♦ A Q 9 ♣ Q 10 5

Against a human West, I might have suspected a club void when he led the deuce of diamonds. But I haven't seen any evidence that Jack even knows what a suit-preference signal is.

At the other table, the auction and lead are the same. Declarer loses the first trick to the queen of hearts, but hops with the ace when East shifts to a diamond. I'm not sure what his plan is, because it doesn't get very far. At trick three, he leads a club from his hand, and West ruffs. West now plays the king of diamonds. Surely this is wrong. He wants his partner to ruff this and play another club, so why not lead low? East ruffs anyway and plays another club. West ruffs with the king of spades and plays a third diamond. Declarer guesses correctly to ruff high and finesse East for the spade jack. Down one.

I'm not being facetious when I say he guesses correctly. If West did have king-jack of spades, he should still ruff with the king and play a third diamond. Ruffing with the jack dooms his king of spades once East can't overruff dummy. Not leading the third round of diamonds at all doesn't help, since there is no benign explanation for failing to lead a diamond. The only way to score two trump tricks is to falsecard.

I was curious whether Jack would find this mandatory falsecard. I edited the deal, switching West's four of hearts for the spade jack, and replayed it. The bidding and play were the same up to the point where East led the second club. Not only did West not ruff with the king, he didn't ruff at all!

I backed up the play and forced West to ruff (incorrectly) with the jack, then lead a diamond. I wanted to see if South would drop the king when East failed to overruff the dummy. He didn't. He took the finesse into West's stiff king. That surprised me. I can understand the mandatory falsecard's being beyond Jack's capabilities. But I should think that once East fails to overruff the diamond, Jack would exclude layouts from its universe where East holds the spade king. Computer programs play much better today than I would have thought possible ten years ago. But they still have a long way to go. Although, who am I to talk? I went down a trick more than Jack.

One last point. For those of you who were skeptical, may I point out that North would have done six IMPs better had he made a negative double?

Me: -100
Jack: -50

Score on Board 30: -2 IMPs
Total score: +75 IMPs