Monday, May 3, 2010

Match 2 - Board 1

Board 1
Neither vulnerable

♠ Q 10 8 Q 7 K 10 ♣ K J 10 7 6 4

My opponents at table one are playing a card Jack describes as "2/1 almost GF with forcing NT." Not that it matter on this deal, since partner opens with three diamonds, buying the contract. West leads the ace of clubs.


NORTH
♠ Q 10 8
Q 7
K 10
♣ K J 10 7 6 4






SOUTH
♠ K
10 3
A Q 7 6 5 3 2
♣ 9 8 3



WestNorthEastSouth
3
(All pass)


There are some, perhaps even many, who believe that East should signal suit-preference on this trick. There is no obvious shift, they argue, and continuing clubs is unlikely to be the right idea. As you probably know by now, I am not a member of this school. Let me pose this question: Just how sure are you that continuing clubs can't be the right idea? If the opening bid had been one diamond instead of three, it wouldn't be at all hard to construct a layout where continuing clubs is right. It's harder opposite a three diamond opening, but I'm still not sure it's impossible. And it actually doesn't matter whether it's possible or not. The fact that I can say "I'm not sure" is all that matters. If, in order to determine what a signal means, you need to pose a question that can't be answered accurately in under two seconds, you need to change your carding agreements. It's fine to have to work to decide what message to send. But if you have to work to determine how to send it (that is, to determine whether a signal is attitude, count, or suit-preference), then you're going to have accidents.

I would have no objection to playing a rule such as "If you lead an ace and dummy hits with five or more cards in that suit headed by the king, partner's card is suit preference." Or "If you lead an ace and dummy hits with a singleton and at least four trumps, partner's card is suit-preference." Maybe such rules make sense and maybe they don't. But at least they're unambiguous. If, however, you adopt rules such as "If you lead an ace and it is unlikely to be right to continue the suit led, partner's card is suit preference," you had better have a higher tolerance for misunderstandings than I have.

I play the four from dummy, and RHO plays the five. What card do you play?

I don't know what meaning my opponents attach to East's card, but I do know that, whatever the meaning, the five is intended as "high" (if East has a choice). Therefore I must play "low" to create maximum ambiguity. Let's take time out to see why this works. If I play the three, then, from West's point of view, there is only one way the five could be high (when East's spots are five-deuce) but three ways the five could be low (when East's spots are nine-five, eight-five, or nine-eight-five). So the five, even though I know it is "high," is apt to appear "low" to West. If, instead, I play the eight, then I help East convey his message. There will be three ways the five can be high (from five-three, five-deuce, or five-three-deuce) and only one way it can be low (from nine-five).

There is no need to work all this out at the table. You can simply follow this rule: If your opponent plays high, you play low, and vice versa. (I know. I know. This becomes much more complicated if you take into account that West might expect you to play this way. But, in practice, few people seem to know this rule. When they start catching on, then I'll worry about the game theory considerations.)

I play the club three, and West shifts to the deuce of spades. I play the ten from dummy, the card I would play if I held a small singleton. East plays the jack, and I win with the king.

What just happened? Perhaps West underled the spade ace, hoping to find two entries to his partner's hand for two club ruffs. Or perhaps East has the ace and thought his partner had shifted from the king.

I play a diamond to the king and a diamond back to my ace, on which East pitches the four of hearts. On the queen of diamonds, I pitch a club from dummy, since I have one more club than I could possibly need, and I don't want to give the opponents any clue about how useful or irrelevant dummy's major-suit holdings are. East pitches the four of spades.

Ace from ace-queen-third would be an unusual lead, so I suspect that either clubs are two-two or East has queen doubleton remaining. In the latter case, do I have any chance of endplaying him by running diamonds? Not really. He can't have the queen of clubs, ace-jack of spades, ace-king of hearts, and a singleton diamond and not have balanced. As long as he doesn't have all of those cards, he has a counter to anything I can throw at him in the end position. Perhaps my best chance for an extra trick is to duck a club and hope they can't solve the cash-out problem. If that's what I intend to do, I should do so now before the defense has a chance to signal any further. I play a club, West plays the queen, and I claim. Making six.


NORTH
♠ Q 10 8
Q 7
K 10
♣ K J 10 7 6 4


WEST
♠ A 6 3 2
A 9 6 2
J 9 8
♣ A Q


EAST
♠ J 9 7 5 4
K J 8 5 4
4
♣ 5 2


SOUTH
♠ K
10 3
A Q 7 6 5 3 2
♣ 9 8 3



This, as you might, expect, nets 12 out of 12 matchpoints. Four pairs played three diamonds making three, one played three diamonds making four (a somewhat improbable result), and one defended four hearts, making four. I'm not a fan of offshape take-out doubles, but even I would have doubled three diamonds with West's hand. East might or might not drive to game. But even reaching three of a major would have been sufficient to win most of the matchpoints.

I'm still not sure what West was up to with his low spade shift. As I've mentioned before, it would be nice if Jack had a debug mode where it logged its analysis.

At first I chalked this result up to luck. But I've changed my mind. As an experiment, I replayed the deal several times, playing different clubs at trick one. Whenever I played the eight or nine, West shifted to the heart ace. Whenever I played the three, he shifted to a low spade. I can't tell you why. But, after all, the three is the right card. If playing the right card is responsible for my making six, I suppose I'm entitled to some of the credit even if I haven't the slightest idea why it worked.

Score on Board 1: +170 (12 MP)
Total: 12 MP (100%)
Current rank: 1st

3 comments:

  1. Addiction partially assuaged. Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  2. I learned the spot card rule as "use their signaling methods." This is a useful extension - it blurs suit preference implications as well.

    I agree that I can find no earthly reason for W to shift to spades after seeing the 3 but hearts after seeing the 8 or 9.

    ReplyDelete