Sunday, April 22, 2012

Event 3 - Match 5 - Board 6

Board 6
Opponents vulnerable

♠ A 3 J 10 9 7 10 3 ♣ Q 8 5 4 3

Pass on my right. I pass. LHO opens one notrump (12-14), which partner doubles. RHO bids two diamonds. Since I'm the one with diamond shortness, it's incumbent on me to act. I think one should treat this auction as if partner had opened one notrump and RHO had overcalled. Thus, playing my usual methods, a double by me would show exactly two diamonds, support for the unbid suits, and enough high cards to justify competing. Even though I lack spade support, I would double anyway, intending to correct two spades to three clubs. I haven't convinced partner of the merits of this approach, however, so I bid two hearts. It would be nice to have a fifth heart, but, with no negative double available, I have to make do. Everyone passes, and LHO leads the deuce of diamonds.


NORTH
Jack
♠ 10 6 5 4 2
Q 3
A J 5
♣ A K 7






SOUTH
Phillip
♠ A 3
J 10 9 7
10 3
♣ Q 8 5 4 3



West North East South
Sam Jack Stephen Phillip
Pass Pass
1 NT Double 2 2
(All pass)

I don't care for the double. I know conventional wisdom is that you should double a weak notrump a tad lighter than you double a strong notrump. But I've never understood why. You need the same number of tricks to beat a weak notrump as to beat a strong notrump.

I play low, East plays the queen, and I play the three. I realize too late I should have played the ten, since West knows I have that card. It probably doesn't matter, but it's poor technique. I need to wake up.

I expect a spade shift. If I had the spade king instead of the ace, failing to shift to a spade might enable me to pitch a spade loser on a diamond. But East shifts to the jack of clubs. Why did he do this? It's possible this is a singleton. But it's also possible that shifting to dummy's long suit just didn't appeal. I play the three, West plays the deuce.

I win in dummy with the ace and lead the queen of hearts--four--seven--ace. There is no particular reason for West to falsecard, so East probably has the heart king. That leaves him with at most one more high card point. And he probably has it. If West had king-queen-jack of spades, he might have led a spade, so I suspect East has the spade jack.

West shifts to the ten of clubs. If I'm right that the jack of clubs was a singleton, I should play low on this trick so that East, if he chooses to ruff, ruffs a loser instead of a winner. But if clubs were breaking all along, playing low will block the suit. Does that matter? Say I play low and East, to my annoyance, follows. I win the club queen in my hand and play a heart. East wins and returns a spade, killing the entry to my hand. Clubs are blocked, but I still have eight tricks: two heart tricks, two diamonds, a spade, and three clubs. It must be better to play low if clubs are four-one, and it costs only overtricks if clubs split. So I play low.

East ruffs with the heart five and shifts to the seven of spades. I play the ace, and West plays the eight. If the carding is honest, spades are three-three, which means East is 3-4-5-1. I've lost the club ruff to the hand with four hearts, so I can now afford to be tapped. I play a diamond to the jack and cash the ace, pitching my spade. West plays nine, king; East plays four, six. I play the three of hearts--king--nine--deuce. We are down to this position. I can afford to lose one more trick:


NORTH
Jack
♠ 10 6 5 4
--
--
♣ K


WEST
Sam
♠ K Q
x
--
♣ 9 6


EAST
Stephen
♠ J 9
x
8 7
♣ --


SOUTH
Phillip
♠ --
J 10
--
♣ Q 8 5


East plays the eight of diamonds. I ruff with the heart ten, and West discards the spade queen. Aha! He was stepping-stone squeezed. If he pitches a club, I can discard dummy's club king. If he underruffs, he's squeezed on the next trick. I cash the heart jack, play a club to the king, and toss West in with the spade king to score my queen of clubs.


NORTH
Jack
♠ 10 6 5 4 2
Q 3
A J 5
♣ A K 7


WEST
Sam
♠ K Q 8
A 8 2
K 9 2
♣ 10 9 6 2


EAST
Stephen
♠ J 9 7
K 6 5 4
Q 8 7 6 4
♣ J


SOUTH
Phillip
♠ A 3
J 10 9 7
10 3
♣ Q 8 5 4 3


I guess I should be glad we weren't playing negative doubles. We would have foolishly reached our five-three fit instead of our four-two fit and presumably would have gone down one.

Of course, I should have gone down in this contract as well. The defense got off to the wrong start by going after club ruffs instead of tapping me in spades. Even after East took his ruff, however, they could still beat me. West needed to drop a spade honor under my ace, so he can hold the spade eight instead of king in the end position. He was pretty much double-dummy at the point he had to make his decision, so I'm surprised he didn't see that. This isn't the kind of mistake Jack typically makes.

Looking at all four hands, I'm annoyed to see I missed an inference during the play. If I was right to assume East had the heart king, I had a virtual lock that he had a singleton club. He would cover the heart queen with the king if he had a second club, so he could lead it, retaining his partner's heart ace as an entry for his ruff. It turns out I didn't need that inference, but I might have.

Why did I miss this? Generally, when you miss an inference, it's because you aren't actively making predictions during the play. If you make a prediction and are wrong, a bell goes off. If you aren't making predictions, nothing strikes you as unusual, so you have no reason to stop and think. Note I did this at trick two. I predicted a spade shift. When I got a club shift instead, I had reason to suspect that the club jack was singleton. But I couldn't be sure.

I got lazy, however, when I led the heart queen. I should have predicted that the queen would be covered on my right. When that didn't happen, I should then have suspected that both heart honors were on my left. Now, when West wins with the ace, suggesting that's not the case, a bell would go off. Drawing the inference that East could not have a second club is easy. It's getting the bell to go off in the first place that's the hard part.

Our counterparts at the other table played one notrump and made three, cutting our lead to four imps.

Table 1: +110
Table 2: -150

Result on Board 6: -1 imp
Total: +4 imps

No comments:

Post a Comment