Free Weekly Instant Tournament - September 19 - Board 4

Board 4
Both sides vulnerable

♠ K 6 5  ♥ A K Q 5  ♦ A Q 6 4  ♣ K 10

Alex covers the deal on YouTube. She must have been watching Sam Spade movies lately. She decided to go noirish on this one:

RHO opens with one club. I double, intending to rebid one notrump to show 19 to 21 HCP, balanced. LHO passes, partner bids one diamond, and RHO bids an impertinent one heart.

The opponents might be in trouble here. But they are only at the one-level, I have four-card support for partner's suit, and they could have a playable spot in clubs. It might not hurt to double just in case they are in trouble. But the robots don't do well when the auction gets complicated. It seems wiser just to bid my hand and keep the auction simple. 

I bid one notrump, and partner bids two hearts, which the tooltip says shows 5+ HCP and is forcing to three notrump. Why didn't partner just bid three notrump? No idea. But if he wants to know more about my hand, it would be remiss of me not to show him my good diamond support. So I bid three diamonds. Partner bids three notrump.

Still not sure what that cue-bid was all about. But if my three-diamond bid doesn't excite him, so be it. I pass, and LHO leads the deuce of hearts.

	NORTH Robot ♠ 10 8 2 ♥ 7 ♦ 10 8 5 ♣ 9 8 7 6 5 4
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ K 6 5 ♥ A K Q 5 ♦ A Q 6 4 ♣ K 10

West	North	East	South
Robot	Robot	Robot	Phillip
Pass	Pass	1 ♣	Double
Pass	1 ♦	1 ♥	1 NT
Pass	2 ♥	Pass	3 ♦
Pass	3 NT	(All pass)

The sight of dummy does not enlighten me as to what partner had in mind with two hearts. He really wanted to force to game with 0 HCP opposite 19 to 21?

His proper bid over one notrump was two clubs. When the opponents bid two suits, the suit you can't have is a cue-bid, and the one you might have is natural. Here, partner can't have hearts when he didn't bid them over the double. But he might have clubs. And I've shown club tolerance with my one-notrump bid. So two clubs should be natural--and to play.

Anyway, I have to do what I can in three notrump. What's East's shape? With a stiff diamond, he might have doubled one diamond. Perhaps he's 2-4-2-5? Maybe he has a doubleton king of diamonds. If so, I can duck it out, then eventually throw the opponents in to lead a black suit for me. 

I play a low heart from dummy, and East plays the ten. A common mistake is to win the ace in this situation. That simply advertises you are well-heeled in the suit. With ace alone, you would be ducking. So the king or queen is more deceptive than the ace. The queen is marginally better. There are holdings where West will lead the queen from queen-jack, so, if East doesn't have the jack, he may already suspect you have the queen. If East had played the jack instead of the ten, the king would be better. Now neither opponent knows you have the queen.

I win with the queen. I'm going to try to duck out the diamond king, but I might as well cash the ace first. Good thing I do. West plays the deuce and East drops the king.

So East did have a stiff diamond. He surely would have doubled with 4-4-1-4, so he must be 3-4-1-5. I can now reach dummy with the diamond ten to lead up to one of my kings. Perhaps I can force the opponents to lead up to the other one. That would make three diamond tricks, three hearts tricks, and two kings for an impressive down one.

I play a diamond. West hops with the jack, and East discards the three of clubs. The three? The robots give count when discarding, so if he has all five outstanding clubs, he would be discarding the deuce. Is he 4-4-1-4 after all?

West continues with the three of hearts. I pitch a club from dummy, and East plays the nine. He shouldn't have that card. The ten at trick one was apparently a falsecard.

I win with the king and lead a diamond to dummy's ten. West plays the three, and East pitches the heart four. We've presumably reached this position, with the lead in dummy:

	NORTH Robot ♠ 10 8 2 ♥ -- ♦ -- ♣ 9 8 7 6 5
WEST Robot ♠ ? ? x ♥ x x ♦ 9 7 ♣ ?		EAST Robot ♠ A ? ? x ♥ x ♦ -- ♣ A ? ?
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ K 6 5 ♥ A 5 ♦ Q ♣ K 10

Which king should I lead up to? If I lead a spade to my king, the opponents will have three spade tricks. If I lead a club to my king, they will have only two club tricks. Seems better to lead a club.

I play a club. East hops with the ace, and West follows with the jack. East continues with the six of hearts, which I take with the ace. Now we've reached this position, with the lead in my hand:

	NORTH Robot ♠ 10 8 2 ♥ -- ♦ -- ♣ 9 8 7
WEST Robot ♠ ? ? x ♥ 8 ♦ 9 7 ♣ --		EAST Robot ♠ A ? ? x ♥ -- ♦ -- ♣ Q 2
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ K 6 5 ♥ 5 ♦ Q ♣ K

If I cash the queen of diamonds and toss West in with a heart, he can cash one diamond, on which I pitch a spade. Then he must lead a spade, and I'll take the last two tricks for down one. Sounds good to me. That's what I do.

	NORTH Robot ♠ 10 8 2 ♥ 7 ♦ 10 8 5 ♣ 9 8 7 6 5 4
WEST Robot ♠ 9 7 3 ♥ J 8 3 2 ♦ J 9 7 3 2 ♣ J		EAST Robot ♠ A Q J 4 ♥ 10 9 6 4 ♦ K ♣ A Q 3 2
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ K 6 5 ♥ A K Q 5 ♦ A Q 6 4 ♣ K 10

Minus 100 is worth 93%. Three notrump was a popular contract, but most declarers did not manage eight tricks.

Did East err in playing the third heart? He lost his second club trick that way. This was the position when East exited with a heart:

	NORTH Robot ♠ 10 8 2 ♥ -- ♦ -- ♣ 9 8 7 6
WEST Robot ♠ 9 7 3 ♥ J 8 ♦ 9 7 ♣ --		EAST Robot ♠ A Q J 4 ♥ 6 ♦ -- ♣ Q 2
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ K 6 5 ♥ A 5 ♦ Q ♣ K

Can he beat me two if he plays another club? No, I guess not. I can't endplay West anymore. But I can endplay East, since he has all the spade honors. I cash the heart ace and the diamond queen. Then I lead a spade to the eight. East can't reach his partner and must give me my spade king at the end.

Free Weekly Instant Tournament - September 19 - Board 3

 

Board 3
Opponents vulnerable

♠ J 3  ♥ A Q 8 6 4  ♦ A Q 8 5 3  ♣ 6

If you prefer, you can watch Alex take you through Board 3 on Gargoyle's YouTube channel:

I open with one heart in first seat. LHO overcalls with two clubs. Partner raises to two hearts. And RHO bids three clubs. Partner's perfect minimum is king third in both red suits, which makes four hearts cold on normal breaks. So my hand is worth an invitation. 

I suspect the field won't be inviting. I would count this as 15 total points after the raise, which isn't worth an invitation. But point count undervalues concentrated strength.

The loser-counters, however, might go to the other extreme and blast game. Five losers, in theory, is worth a four-heart bid. They're wrong, too, in my opinion. Loser count overvalues hands where fit is important. In general, when some people will be content with a part score and others will be blasting game, the baby-bear approach is usually right.

I bid three diamonds, and partner accepts with four hearts. Everyone passes and LHO leads the jack of clubs.

	NORTH Robot ♠ 5 4 2 ♥ K 10 9 7 ♦ 10 7 4 2 ♣ A Q
	♣ J
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ J 3 ♥ A Q 8 6 4 ♦ A Q 8 5 3 ♣ 6

West	North	East	South
Robot	Robot	Robot	Phillip
			1 ♥
2 ♣	2 ♥	3 ♣	3 ♦
Pass	4 ♥	(All pass)

Since I think a fair percentage of the field will not reach game, my primary concern is making this. So what's my best chance? Should I take the club finesse to pitch a spade?

A vulnerable two-level overcall on a jack-high suit is unlikely, but it's not unheard of. And I might not need the club finesse. If I can take four diamond tricks, I can afford to lose two spades.

I can take four diamond tricks any time diamonds are two-two, which is 40% of the time. 50% of the time they will split three-one one way or the other. Of the eight ways they can split three-one, I can pick up stiff king or jack in either hand. So that's an additional 25%, bringing my total chances up to 65%. 

Actually, I'm wrong. It's better than that. West probably would have led a stiff small or stiff jack of diamonds. So that reduces the denominator. Let's try this again.

If we eliminate the likely diamond leads, we come up with the following table. For each of West's possible holdings, the tables shows whether we can achieve our goal. If we go up with the club ace, our goal is four tricks. If we finesse and it loses, we need five tricks.

Diamond Layout

West	East	Cases	4 tricks	5 tricks
♦ --	♦ K J x x	1
♦ K	♦ J x x	1	Y
♦ K J	♦ x x	1	Y
♦ K x	♦ J x	2	Y
♦ J x	♦ K x	2	Y	Y
♦ x x	♦ K J	1	Y	Y
♦ K x x	♦ J	1	Y
♦ K J x	♦ x	2
♦ J x x	♦ K	1	Y
♦ K J x x	♦ --	1

Now we can calculate out chance of success. The percentages aren't exact, because the cases are not equally likely. But it's a good approximation.

Goal	Cases	Percentage
4 tricks	9 / 13	0.69
5 tricks	3 / 13	0.23

If I go up with the ace, I'll make 69% of the time. What if I finesse? I'll make if the finesse works. I'll make even if the finesse loses if I can take five diamond tricks. If I judge the finesse to be 60%, then finessing works 60% of the time plus 23% of the remaining 40%, or about 69% of the time total. So that's the over-under. If I think the finesse is better than 60%, I should finesse. If not, I should go up.

60% sounds conservative to me. So I'll take over. I play the queen. East plays the three. I pitch a spade on the ace of clubs. East plays the seven; West, the deuce. I play the ten of hearts to my ace to guard against a four-one break. Deuce from East; three from West.

I want to make sure I end up in dummy after the third round of hearts, so I cash the queen next. West discards the seven of spades. I unblock the nine to stay flexible. Now a heart to dummy's king. West discards the king of clubs. I've reached this position with the lead in dummy.

	NORTH Robot ♠ 5 4 2 ♥ 7 ♦ 10 7 4 2 ♣ --
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ J ♥ 8 6 ♦ A Q 8 5 3 ♣ --

As long as I don't lose three diamond tricks, I've made this. I play the deuce of diamonds from dummy. East plays the six.

My instincts say to cover with the eight. Now I can't go down. If I play the queen... Oh, I still can't go down. If West shows out, I lose a spade and two diamonds. This is why I don't listen to my instincts.

I play the queen. West wins with the king and returns the nine. I claim eleven tricks.

	NORTH Robot ♠ 5 4 2 ♥ K 10 9 7 ♦ 10 7 4 2 ♣ A Q
WEST Robot ♠ K 9 7 6 ♥ 3 ♦ K 9 ♣ K J 10 9 8 2		EAST Robot ♠ A Q 10 8 ♥ J 5 2 ♦ J 6 ♣ 7 5 4 3
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ J 3 ♥ A Q 8 6 4 ♦ A Q 8 5 3 ♣ 6

Plus 650 is worth 100%. I was right the field didn't try for game. Only two other pairs reached game, and they both made only four. 

In retrospect, I missed a key inference in my analysis. I said that if the club finesse lost, I had a 23% chance of taking five diamonds tricks. But that's not true. Given West's failure to lead a spade, the best he can have in spades is ace-queen. If he's missing the club king, that doesn't leave him with much for his overcall. If the club finesse loses, the diamond king is almost surely offside.

That means the over-under for taking the finesse is 69%, not 60. I think I'd still take over. But it's a lot closer.

Free Weekly Instant Tournament - September 19 - Board 2

Board 2
Our side vulnerable

♠ K 2  ♥ Q 9 6 4  ♦ A Q 5 4  ♣ J 10 3

The link to the YouTube episode for this deal is below:

I open one diamond in second seat. Partner bids two notrump, invitational. I have nothing extra, so I pass. RHO leads the six of spades.

	NORTH Phillip ♠ K 2 ♥ Q 9 6 4 ♦ A Q 5 4 ♣ J 10 3
	SOUTH Robot ♠ A 8 3 ♥ A 8 7 ♦ K J 6 ♣ 6 5 4 2

West	North	East	South
Robot	Phillip	Robot	Robot
Pass	1 ♦	Pass	2 NT
(All pass)

I have seven top tricks. If the king of hearts is with West, I can develop the heart queen for my eighth. But if I lead to the queen of hearts and it loses to the king, I’m out of chances. The opponents will clear spades and have lots of black tricks ready to cash if I give up the lead again.

Is there anything else to try instead? There’s the intra-finesse in hearts. I can float the seven, then lead the queen, hoping to pin jack- or ten-doubleton on my left. True, that's an unlikely layout. It's much more likely the king is onside. But if I have some reason to believe it's offside, the intra-finesse is worth considering. If I lead a heart toward the queen and West ducks, is that sufficient reason? How likely is West to hop with the king if he has it?

Sometimes it's a bad idea at notrump to let declarer sneak a trick through early. Change the deal to something like this:

	NORTH Phillip ♠ K 2 ♥ Q 9 6 ♦ A Q 7 5 4 ♣ J 10 3
	SOUTH Robot ♠ A 8 3 ♥ A 8 7 ♦ J 10 6 ♣ Q 6 5 4

If the diamond finesse works, I have eight tricks. If I take the finesse and it loses, I'm likely to go down. So I might try a heart to the queen at trick two. If West has the king and ducks, I'm home. 

But in that layout, the heart play is suspicious. West knows I have at most three hearts. When declarer attacks a suit to develop only one trick, an alarm should go off. West should probably realize declarer is trying to sneak a trick through to gain a tempo. So he should hop and clear spades.

The actual deal isn't going to set off an alarm. There is nothing suspicious about attacking dummy's four-card suit, so West has no compelling reason to hop. If I play a heart toward dummy and West plays low, going for the intra-finesse would be well against the odds. 

Should I duck trick one? The opponents have communication in clubs, so I don’t see much to gain by ducking. I play low from dummy, East plays the jack, and I take the ace. West is marked with the ten, but I don't know who has the queen.

I could run diamonds first, then lead a heart to the ace and another heart. But I don't want to advertise that I'm wide open in clubs.

Next question: Should I play ace and a heart--or just lead a low one? A low heart to the queen would be embarrassing if East has a stiff king. But is that likely? It means West chose to lead a spade with jack-ten fifth of hearts. And cashing the ace first leaves me open to going down two or more if the queen loses to the king. Leading low looks better. And the eight looks better than the seven, since it might tempt West to cover with the ten.

I lead the eight of hearts. West hops with the king, and East plays the deuce. So I've made my contract. It's all about overtricks now.

West shifts to the queen of spades. I win in dummy, and East plays the four. So West has queen-ten of spades. He probably doesn't have the nine, else he would have led the ten. So the possibilities are Q106, Q1076, or Q10765. Q106 is unlikely. He might have led the ten to start an unblock if chose to lead from that holding.

I cash three rounds of diamonds, ending in dummy. Diamonds were three-three. On the fourth diamond, East pitches the five of spades. OK. We've eliminated Q10765 in the West hand. West appears to have started with four spades. I pitch the deuce of clubs: East pitches the eight of clubs.

We've reached this position with the lead in dummy:

	NORTH Phillip ♠ -- ♥ Q 9 6 ♦ -- ♣ J 10 3
	SOUTH Robot ♠ 8 ♥ A 7 ♦ -- ♣ 6 5 4

I lead a heart from dummy--ten--ace--five. Now a heart from my hand. West plays the three. Do I finesse, playing West for king-jack fourth, or do I go up, playing for a three-three split?

 If my construction is right, West began with either

♠ Q 10 7 6  ♥ K J 5 3  ♦ 9 3 2  ♣ ? 8

or

♠ Q 10 7 6  ♥ K 5 3  ♦ 9 3 2  ♣ ? ? 8.

By restricted choice, the finesse is two-to-one to be right. The fact that a doubleton club is less likely than a tripleton reduces that somewhat. It's more like three to two. But more important than the a priori odds is the fact that hopping with king-jack fourth of hearts is dangerous. If East has ten doubleton, hopping lets me take three heart tricks; ducking holds me to two. It's true that hopping from king third takes me off a guess if his partner has the jack--a guess I rate to get wrong. So it's arguably a mistake to hop with either holding. But at least hopping with king third won't cost a trick by force. I think that's the mistake a robot, who doesn't think about taking you off guesses, is more apt to make. So it looks right to go up with the queen.

Another reason to go up: I'm in two notrump. Playing for overtricks in two notrump is seldom a good idea. You don't want to jeopardize your plus score when some will be going minus in a game. So, even if I thought finessing was the percentage play, it would have to be a pretty high percentage before I risked it.

I rise with the queen. East drops the jack. Making three.

	NORTH Phillip ♠ K 2 ♥ Q 9 6 4 ♦ A Q 5 4 ♣ J 10 3
WEST Robot ♠ Q 10 7 6 ♥ K 5 3 ♦ 9 3 2 ♣ A Q 8		EAST Robot ♠ J 9 5 4 ♥ J 10 2 ♦ 10 8 7 ♣ K 9 7
	SOUTH Robot ♠ A 8 3 ♥ A 8 7 ♦ K J 6 ♣ 6 5 4 2

Four pairs played three notrump and made it. That's taking quite a position to accept with the North hand. Maybe they though two notrump was forcing? Fortunately, five pairs managed to misplay two notrump. So plus 150 is worth 54%.