Response to "John Lowenthal Story--A Follow-up"

Someone brought this post on BridgeWinners to my attention: 

John Lowenthal Story--A Follow-up

In the comments, someone expressed doubt about whether the story was true. That all depends on what you mean by "the story." The deal did occur, and the auction occurred as reported, and John duly made six notrump. That much is true. Anyone who is surprised by this obviously never knew John. The story as I reported it in "Remembering John Lowenthal" is, to the best of my memory, word for word the way John told it himself.

The deal reported in the New York Times, however, as well as the ensuing dialogue, is a construction. Years after the event, Alan Truscott heard the story and asked John if he could remember the deal. John could not. Alan thought it was too good a story to pass up, and he couldn't report the story in his column without an accompanying deal, so he made one up. To amuse himself, he constructed a layout where six notrump made but diamond contracts would fail, though that wasn't true in the actual deal.

There were many more Linda stories, sometimes with the full deal, sometimes not. I wish I had written them down. One I do remember is as follows:

John had observed they were losing a lot of tricks on defense and decided they needed some carding agreements. So, before the session, he said to Linda, "If I take a card from my hand, wave it around in the air and thumb it on the table like this, and if you look at that card and see that it's a high card--like an eight or a nine--then that means I want you to lead that suit." Linda said, "OK."

At some point in the session, John found himself on lead against three notrump. He led something, and declarer won and established dummy's suit. As luck would have it, Linda was winning the trick and John was showing out. It was clear that declarer had the rest of the tricks as soon as he gained the lead. It was also clear that the only tricks the defense might be able to cash were in the spade suit. So John, with jack-nine fourth of spades, took the spade nine out of his hand, waved it around in the air, and thumbed it on the table. 

The opponents were, of course, upset. But Linda was delighted. Her eyes lit up. For the first time all night, she knew what to do. She put the deuce of spades on the table and declarer played the ten. John couldn't believe it. All he was trying to do was to get her to cash her ace if she had it. He never imagined she would underlead it. He took his jack and returned a spade. Linda won her ace, looked around awhile, then shifted, and declarer claimed. The opponents had intended to call the director about John's antics. But when they saw Linda had ace-king-queen fourth of spades, they took pity on John and decided not to. John, meanwhile, was delighted with the result. They had held declarer to four notrump. In the past, he would have made six.

Finally, I do wish to say something about another comment in the BridgeWinners post. Someone said I left BridgeWinners because of a discussion of COVID-19 vaccines. Technically that's true. But more precisely, it was a discussion of COVID-19 vaccine mandates and my opposition to them, for which I was called an idiot. I realize to many, opposition to vaccine mandates is indistinguishable from opposition to vaccines. But I do think the distinction is important. And I wished we lived in a society where freedom of choice was sufficiently valued that the distinction was obvious.

 

Zenith Daylong - Oct 14, 2021 - Board 10

Board 10
Both vulnerable

♠ Q 6 3  ♥ 4 3  ♦ K Q 2  ♣ A J 10 5 4

RHO passes. I open with one club. LHO bids two diamonds, weak, and partner bids two hearts. I bid two notrump, and partner bids four hearts. Everyone passes, and RHO leads the ace of diamonds.

	NORTH Phillip ♠ Q 6 3 ♥ 4 3 ♦ K Q 2 ♣ A J 10 5 4
	SOUTH Robot ♠ K 8 5 2 ♥ A K Q 10 7 6 ♦ 7 3 ♣ 6

West	North	East	South
Robot	Phillip	Robot	Robot
Pass	1 ♣	2 ♦	2 ♥
Pass	2 NT	Pass	4 ♥
(All pass)

One would normally have a six-card suit for a two-level pre-empt. But since East has a jack-high suit and since the robots are not particularly aggressive with their pre-empts, I suspect he has seven of them. I play the deuce from dummy, and East plays the four. The card I play makes to difference to East. since West can have either one of them. Can my choice make a difference to West? Probably not. But since East would never play his second-lowest diamond, the three is the card I'm known to hold. So I play it on general principles.

West shifts to the seven of spades. (Robots don't play suit preference.) I play low from dummy. East wins with the ace, and I follow with the deuce. I have a diamond discard for my long spade. So after West takes his diamond ruff, I have the rest--barring something unexpected.

East returns the six of diamonds. West ruffs with the heart five and returns the nine of spades. East doesn't ruff it, and everyone follows to the first heart. So I claim.

	NORTH Phillip ♠ Q 6 3 ♥ 4 3 ♦ K Q 2 ♣ A J 10 5 4
WEST Robot ♠ J 9 7 4 ♥ J 8 5 2 ♦ A ♣ 9 8 3 2		EAST Robot ♠ A 10 ♥ 9 ♦ J 10 9 8 6 5 4 ♣ K Q 7
	SOUTH Robot ♠ K 8 5 2 ♥ A K Q 10 7 6 ♦ 7 3 ♣ 6

56% for plus 620. 

This isn't much of a deal from our perspective. It's far more interesting from the opponents' perspective. What would you play as East at trick one on partner's lead of the diamond ace? 

First of all, what does your card mean? When you are known to have at least six cards in the suit led, your card should be a three-way signal. If you play standard carding, the eight (your middle card) would ask for a diamond continuation and the jack or four would be suit preference. If you play upside-down attitude, it's better to play that your lowest card asks for a diamond continuation and high or middle is suit preference. This is less accident prone than playing middle encourages. To play that your lowest card sometimes asks for diamonds and sometimes for clubs is begging for an accident. You may think you can choose some criterion to make it unambiguous. But what's the point? Since there is no gain to switching methodologies, why risk it? If your lowest card is always encouraging, there can never be an ambiguity.

Why not do the same thing playing standard signals? Why not play high is always encouraging and middle or low is suit preference? For some reason, I don't know of any pair who plays that way. Perhaps anyone who is sufficiently concerned about disambiguation to adopt such a method is already playing upside down.

In any event, what switch should you request with this hand? It's hard to see beating this unless partner's diamond ace is a singleton. So let's assume it is. We have two aces and one ruff. Where is our fourth trick coming from? Given South's jump to four hearts, it seems unlikely partner has the spade king. Might we take a club trick as our setting trick? Declarer can pitch one club on a diamond, so he will need three clubs for us to have a club trick. That makes him 2623. If that's his pattern, does it matter whether partner switches to a club or a spade? A club switch beats it easily. What about a spade switch? I win, give partner a ruff with my lowest diamond, and now he switches to a club. That kills the dummy entry, so declarer can't take two discards. So it doesn't matter which suit partner leads at trick two.

Can we find a layout where partner's switch does matter? What if partner has a natural trump trick? Maybe then we can beat this even if declarer has a doubleton club. Let's try this layout:

♠ K J x  ♥ A K Q x x x  ♦ x x  ♣ x x

If partner switches to a spade and I give him a ruff, we are out of tricks. If he switches to a club, we get two aces, a club, and a trump trick. Perhaps there exists some deal were a spade shift beats it and a club shift doesn't. But the fact that I'm having a hard time constructing one suggests that, if there is one, it's a very specific layout. And there is nothing unusual about this layout. So I suspect it's right to ask for a club shift.

But the problem isn't over yet. Let's say you ask for a club shift and partner shifts to the club nine. (His card should be attitude: high to confirm he's ruffing a diamond and low to say he isn't.) Declarer hops with the ace and cashes the ace and king of hearts. You drop the jack of diamonds, suit preference for spades. Declarer now leads the heart ten and partner wins with the queen.

Now what? As long as declarer has another club, he's down. But what if he doesn't? What if he has

♠ K J x x  ♥ A K J 10 x x  ♦ x x  ♣ x?

Now partner must shift to a spade to get his ruff. Is that clear? Are you sure--and, more importantly, is your partner sure--that the diamond jack necessarily shows the spade ace? And what happens if partner does lead a spade to your ace? If declarer has the hand above, you must give partner his diamond ruff. But if he has

♠ K J  ♥ A K J 10 x x x  ♦ x x  ♣ x x,

you must cash a club. 

Partner could solve this problem for you by giving attitude with his spade return: high to say he can ruff a diamond return and low to say he can't, like his club play at trick two. But it's not clear he'll do that. He might not be on the same wavelength about what your problem is. He might be afraid that if he leads a low spade, you will play him for the king.

Fortunately, there is a more reliable way to solve both your problems. You should discard the king of clubs on this trick. This discard makes sense only if you have king-queen tight. So if partner began with three clubs, he knows another club is cashing; and if he began with four, he knows it isn't. In the former case, he will return a club, solving your cash-out problem. In the latter case, he has no choice but to play you for the spade ace. You will win his spade shift and, knowing the club can't be cashing since partner didn't lead one, will give him his diamond ruff.

This deal is a good example of the technique of "drawing a box around partner." If you can play your cards in such a way that partner is forced to do the right thing, do so. Also, if partner knows the layout and could have forced you to defend in a particular way (e.g., cashing your club for you above), assume he will. If he doesn't, then assume that what he could have forced you to do is not the right defense. This is a far more effective method of defense than relying on signals, since signals are always in danger of being misinterpreted.

Zenith Daylong - Oct 14, 2021 - Board 9

Board 9
Opponents vulnerable

♠ K J 4  ♥ J 6 2  ♦ Q 7 3  ♣ 10 7 5 4

Partner opens with one spade. I raise to two spades. Partner goes on to four, and West leads the heart ten.

	NORTH Phillip ♠ K J 4 ♥ J 6 2 ♦ Q 7 3 ♣ 10 7 5 4
	SOUTH Robot ♠ Q 10 7 6 2 ♥ A Q 9 5 ♦ A K 4 ♣ 3

West	North	East	South
Robot	Phillip	Robot	Robot
			1 ♠
Pass	2 ♠	Pass	4 ♠
(All pass)

That's quite an aggressive four-spade bid! A short-suit try in clubs looks more to the point. But with all my high cards outside clubs, I would have accepted despite my minimum. So no harm done.

Assuming the lead is from shortness, I can take four heart tricks if I guess the suit. I start by covering with the jack and taking the king with my ace. If the lead is from stiff 10, 104, or 103, I can take a double finesse against the 87. If the lead is from 108 or 107, I need to cash the queen then get to dummy to finesse against the remaining spot. 

The double finesse works against more layouts, but it's hard to execute without running into a a heart ruff. So my initial plan will be to draw trump, cash the heart queen, hoping to drop the eight or seven, then reach dummy with the diamond queen for a finesse.

I cover with the jack--king--ace. Now six of spades (retaining the deuce on principle)--three--jack--nine. I play the spade king from dummy, and East pitches the diamond deuce. The spade deuce doesn't seem important anymore--if it ever was--so I play it. 

West takes the ace and shifts to the four of hearts. I don't think that was his best play. I wasn't picking up the heart suit without his help. I cover with the six, East covers with the eight, and I win with the queen. I draw trump and finesse the five of hearts to make five.

	NORTH Phillip ♠ K J 4 ♥ J 6 2 ♦ Q 7 3 ♣ 10 7 5 4
WEST Robot ♠ A 8 5 3 ♥ 10 4 ♦ 9 6 ♣ A Q 9 6 2		EAST Robot ♠ 9 ♥ K 8 7 3 ♦ J 10 8 5 2 ♣ K J 8
	SOUTH Robot ♠ Q 10 7 6 2 ♥ A Q 9 5 ♦ A K 4 ♣ 3

450 is worth 77%. Obviously West can hold me to four by not playing the second round of hearts, but the defense went the same way at every table. Luckily for me, not all declarers took advantage. The five was apparently too lowly a card to merit their attention. But the overtrick wasn't the only reason this was a good result. Quite a few players responded one notrump, corrected two hearts to two spades, and played it there.

This is a ten-loser hand with no aces, so I can see how some might judge it isn't worth a single raise. But the jack of spades is a big card. And I don't share the common view that 4333 is necessarily a bad pattern. It can be, but a lot depends on the pattern it faces. Opposite a five-five, for example, a 4333 is actually a plus--not a minus. Doubletons are useful when they are opposite partner's three-card suits. But holding three cards in partner's side five-card suit can be better than holding a doubleton, since it makes it easier for him to establish his long cards. And we don't need to go to such extremes. Even opposite a 4432, a 4333 can be better than a 4432 with matching doubletons.

Perhaps 4333 is a net minus if we know nothing about partner's shape. But, even so, it's not as much of a minus as most people think or as loser count suggests. Evaluating 4333 as a full loser more than 4432 is too pessimistic. So, in my judgment, this hand is a sound minimum raise. And the fact that four spades is a fine contract even though partner overbid with his four-spade call is a testament to that.

Zenith Daylong - Oct 14, 2021 - Board 8

Board 8
Neither vulnerable

♠ A K 6 3  ♥ 9 4  ♦ K Q 9 5  ♣ Q 9 7

Partner opens with one notrump. With 29 HCP, there is often no advantage to playing in a four-four major-suit fit. The cards you can ruff may be winners anyway. So I'm going to raise to three notrump without looking for the four-four spade fit. This has two ways to win: it might be the right contract when partner has four spades, and it might make the defense harder when he doesn't, since the opponents will have less information about declarer's shape. 

I bid three notrump. Everyone passes, and West leads the heart deuce.

	NORTH Phillip ♠ A K 6 3 ♥ 9 4 ♦ K Q 9 5 ♣ Q 9 7
	SOUTH Robot ♠ 8 7 ♥ A K Q 7 ♦ A 10 3 2 ♣ K 6 5

West	North	East	South
Robot	Phillip	Robot	Robot
		Pass	1 NT
Pass	3 NT	(All pass)

I have five tricks in the majors. If I have four diamond tricks, that makes nine--ten after knocking out the club ace. What are my chances for eleven? One possibility is to take four heart tricks. I have two ways to attempt to do that. If West has led from jack-ten, I can hop with dummy's nine and win the trick. If he has led from eight third, I can play low, forcing an honor, then finesse against the other honor. 

What are my chances for an eleventh trick if I don't have four heart tricks? If either hand has four hearts and the club ace, I have a strip squeeze. I lead a club through the ace, then cash four diamonds, coming down to seven cards. The targeted hand has to keep two clubs (else I can duck out the ace) and three hearts (else my seven is good), so he must come down to a doubleton spade. Now I cash the ace and king of spades and toss him in with a heart to score my other club honor. 

That possibility solves my trick-one problem. If I play the nine and it's covered, I can go for the endplay. If I play low, I may lose that opportunity. Say East plays an honor at trick one and my later finesse loses. Now I no longer have a heart loser to throw an opponent in with. So playing the nine at trick one gives me two chances while playing low gives me only one.

I play the nine, and East covers with the jack, in principle denying the ten. It's usually right to conceal the card immediately above the one third hand plays, since that is a card that either opponent might hold from his partner's perspective. So I win with the king.

Which hand should I target for the endplay? The robots like leading from three-card suits against notrump, but ten third isn't especially appealing. Given West has the heart ten, I think it's likely he has the four-card suit, so I'll try leading clubs through him. I play the club five--ten--queen--three. He wouldn't insert the ten gratuitously. So either he has the jack also or he has ace-ten doubleton.

Now I can run the diamonds and squeeze West. All I have to do is decide which opponent is more apt to have a stiff diamond, so I can cash my honors in the right order to pick up jack fourth. As a general rule, when someone leads a four-card suit against notrump and you need to guard against a side-suit singleton, it's right to guard against the singleton on your right. That's because the only way the opening leader can have it is if he is 4-4-1-4 or if he has a five-card suit he chose not to lead. Against traditional opening leaders, playing East for the singleton diamond is clear. Robots are less inclined to lead their longest suit, so that changes the odds somewhat. But I doubt it changes them enough actually to reverse the normal play. Accordingly, I cash the diamond king--eight--deuce--four. Now the five of diamonds--seven--ace. West pitches the eight of clubs. 

Oops. And things were going so well. Eleven tricks is now out of the question. I still have nine tricks. Is there any way to find a tenth? I need to start by ducking a spade--both to correct the count for a possible squeeze and to isolate the spade stopper if spades are four-three. If East wins the spade and plays a club, I won't be happy. But why should he do that? Clubs is the suit I was attacking. If I duck a spade to him, he will probably continue hearts, his partner's suit.

I play the spade seven--four--three--nine. East, as expected, shifts to the five of hearts. I win with the ace as West plays the three. This is the current position:

	NORTH Phillip ♠ A K 6 ♥ -- ♦ Q 9 ♣ 9 7
	SOUTH Robot ♠ 8 ♥ Q 7 ♦ 10 3 ♣ K 6

To take another trick, I need to cash my winners and throw West in to lead away from his ace of clubs. Unfortunately, I don't have the communication to throw him in in hearts. I started out hoping West began with four hearts. Now I have to hope he began with three--along with at least four spades. I can cash the queen of hearts, then lead to dummy's queen of diamonds. West will be down to five black cards. If he has two spades, dummy's spades are good. If he has three spades, I can toss him in with a spade to lead away from his club ace. And if he has four spades, the club ace is singleton, so I can duck a club.

I cash the heart queen. I know West has the heart ten left. If I don't see it on this trick, I have no chance left. I do. West follows with the ten. I pitch a diamond from dummy and East follows with the heart six. I play a diamond to dummy's queen, and West discards the club eight. 

Dummy's club nine is a fortunate card. It prevents West from dropping the club jack from ace-jack third, pretending to stiff his ace. I know he has ace-jack of clubs left. If he has the long spade, I have him. I cash the ace and king of spades and lead a third one. Unfortunately, it's East who wins the trick, as West pitches the heart eight. He was just toying with me when he dropped the ten. East cashes his diamond jack and leads a club to his partner's ace. Making three. 

	NORTH Phillip ♠ A K 6 3 ♥ 9 4 ♦ K Q 9 5 ♣ Q 9 7
WEST Robot ♠ J 5 4 ♥ 10 8 3 2 ♦ 4 ♣ A J 10 8 4		EAST Robot ♠ Q 10 9 2 ♥ J 6 5 ♦ J 8 7 6 ♣ 3 2
	SOUTH Robot ♠ 8 7 ♥ A K Q 7 ♦ A 10 3 2 ♣ K 6 5

9%. My three notrump bid backfired. If I bid two clubs and let partner show his four-card heart suit, it steers West off the heart lead. He chooses the club jack instead. Now I can make four--or five if I pick up the diamonds--without the bother of an endplay.

But the primary blame for this result goes to my play of the diamond suit. If I play diamonds the other way and make five, I get 90%. As I think about it more, not only am I pretty sure I made the wrong play against robots, but I'm beginning to believe my statement, "Against traditional opening leaders, playing East for the singleton is clear" was wrong as well. One thing I didn't consider at the time was that I know something about West's club honors. I know he has specifically ace-ten doubleton of clubs or some holding headed by ace-jack-ten.

For the sake of argument, let's take it as given that West won't have a five-card suit lurking. Let's also assume East doesn't have six spades. (He might have opened a weak two-bid if he did. And a six-one spade break is unlikely even without that consideration.) So West's possible patterns are 4414, 2443, or 3442.  If those patterns were equally likely, the odds would be two to one in favor of playing East for the stiff diamond.

Often similar patterns are close enough to being equally likely that assuming they are is sufficient for a rough, at-the-table calculation. But this time our constraints in the club suit make a big difference. There is only one way for West to hold a doubleton club or a tripleton club. But, a priori, there are four ways for him to hold four clubs, since he can hold any one of four small cards along with his ace-jack-ten. So 4414 is roughly four times as likely as either 2443 or 3442, making the odds roughly two to one in favor of West's having the stiff diamond.

We could make a more accurate calculation by taking into account the spade distribution. But since it isn't close, there is no need to do so. Even against traditional opening leaders, West is the overwhelming favorite to hold a stiff diamond. And against robots, who might easily have a five-card black suit, he is an even bigger favorite. I played by rote and didn't stop to consider that the general rule might not fit this specific problem. It was a costly error.

At least I judged correctly to risk my contract by ducking a spade. East could now beat me by shifting to a club. But going down isn't much worse than making only three. Having misplayed diamonds, I had to go all out to try to find another trick

Zenith Daylong - Oct 14, 2021 - Board 7

Board 7
Both vulnerable

♠ 3  ♥ A J 4 2  ♦ A 9 8 4 3  ♣ K 3 2

I open with one diamond in first seat. LHO overcalls with two clubs. Partner and RHO pass. One tries to avoid defending low-level contracts at matchpoints. But when you have shortness in an unbid suit, it's often right to make an exception. Either the opponents are in the wrong strain, or partner has the suit and the hand is a misfit. As Lowenthal liked to put it, "If you balance with this hand, two bad things can happen: (1) Partner has spades. (2) Partner doesn't have spades." 

I pass, and partner leads the diamond seven.

	NORTH Robot ♠ A Q 8 ♥ 9 8 7 6 ♦ Q J 6 5 2 ♣ 8
		EAST Phillip ♠ 3 ♥ A J 4 2 ♦ A 9 8 4 3 ♣ K 3 2

West	North	East	South
Robot	Robot	Phillip	Robot
		1 ♦	2 ♣
(All pass)

Declarer plays a sneaky five from dummy, perhaps hoping we'll forget what spots were played and get our signals mixed up. The robots love to lead low from doubletons in the middle of a hand, but I haven't seen them do that on opening lead, so I'll assume declarer has king-ten doubleton. How will the play go? I'll win with the ace and return a low diamond (suit preference) for partner to ruff. Partner will play a heart to my ace, and I'll play a third diamond for a possible uppercut.

But what if declarer has a heart loser to pitch? If partner has the heart king, we need to cash however many hearts we can before playing the third diamond. If we try to cash too many hearts, however, we lose the second diamond ruff. If partner has king third of hearts, that's not a problem. Partner knows declarer can't have singleton heart, since that would give me five of them. So, after taking his diamond ruff, he will play king and another heart. But what if partner has king fourth of hearts? Now he doesn't know whether declarer has two hearts, in which case he must play king and another, or a singleton, in which case he must play low to my ace.

I know it's right for partner to return a low heart from king fourth. Is there any way I can get him to do that? I don't have a lot of options. I must return a low diamond; my only choice is whether to return the three or the four. Will my choice make a difference to partner? (I realize this question is rhetorical. My robot partner doesn't play suit preference period, so my card will make no difference. But I might as well try to solve the problem anyway, just for practice.)

I should point out that if I do return the four, it's a falsecard--not a nuanced signal. Partner should always assume I am signaling as loudly as possible. The four in principle denies the three, so partner should assume that declarer has it. But that actually solves his problem, doesn't it? If he thinks declarer has another diamond, there is no immediate uppercut. So there is no reason for him to lead the king from king fourth. The falsecard tricks partner into doing the right thing.

But hold on. It also tricks him into doing the wrong thing with king third. If declarer has a third diamond, there is no reason for him to lead the king from king third either. If I knew partner had four hearts, returning the diamond four would be a good play, and it is worth remembering for a different occasion. But I don't want to take control when I'm not sure about the layout. If I play an honest card, maybe partner can work out the position himself from whatever clues he has available.

I win with the ace, and declarer drops the king. I return the diamond three. Partner ruffs declarer's ten with the club six and returns the heart three to my ace. Declarer plays the queen. Is there any chance that's a foolish falsecard from queen doubleton and I can cash the jack now? No. I already decided partner would lead the king from king third. This is either a stiff queen or king-queen tight. 

I return diamond eight. Declarer ruffs with the seven, and partner overruffs with the ten. Partner tries to cash the heart king, and declarer ruffs with the four. We can't take any more tricks beyond my club king. Making two.

	NORTH Robot ♠ A Q 8 ♥ 9 8 7 6 ♦ Q J 6 5 2 ♣ 8
WEST Robot ♠ 10 7 5 4 2 ♥ K 10 5 3 ♦ 7 ♣ J 10 6		EAST Phillip ♠ 3 ♥ A J 4 2 ♦ A 9 8 4 3 ♣ K 3 2
	SOUTH Robot ♠ K J 9 6 ♥ Q ♦ K 10 ♣ A Q 9 7 5 4

Minus 90 is worth 70%. A surprising number of defenders shifted to a spade trick two, allowing declarer to make two overtricks. That's so narcissistic! Going after your own spade ruffs instead of giving partner his diamond ruffs.

Partner did have king fourth of hearts and solved his problem. How might he have solved it? Let's look at the problem from his perspective.

It seems unlikely I have more than one natural trump trick. One trump trick, the diamond ace, and two ruffs makes four tricks. We need two hearts to cash in order to beat it. So returning a low heart gives up on defeating the contract; it's playing to stop an overtrick. At IMPs, therefore, you should play the king. But at matchpoints, it's not so clear. Since we are vulnerable, some pairs may be buying the contract our way and going minus 100. So the difference between minus 90 and minus 110 may be greater than the difference between minus 90 and plus 50. If it's a 50-50 guess, playing to stop the overtrick is probably the percentage play.

Is it a 50-50 guess? Or is there some reason to think either a singleton or a doubleton heart is more likely? I can't think of a reason. But there is anoher argument for leading low. If declarer has a singleton heart and you lead the king, you have dropped a trick. But if declarer has a doubleton and you lead low, you still have a chance to survive. If partner happens to have ace-queen third, he can cash the ace and queen before leading the third diamond. 

Should he? I believe he should. If you were sure returning a diamond was correct, you would lead a high spot (attitude), not a low one. Leading low shows the heart king and shows that you are not so sure about that immediate diamond return. So if partner trusts you, he should do the right thing. He should cash two hearts with ace-queen third (but not with ace-queen fourth, since he knows you would have led the king with only three hearts).

What if you have king fifth of hearts? I believe you should lead a high spot to prevent partner from trying to cash the queen. Leading low is right only if partner has specifically ace-queen tight. You simply have to give up on that layout.

.

Zenith Daylong - Oct 14, 2021 - Board 6

Board 6
Opponents vulnerable

♠ A Q J 10 5  ♥ Q J 9  ♦ 9 8  ♣ 9 7 6

RHO passes. Most daylong tournaments on BBO are best-hand tournaments, which means that when you hold ten HCP, everyone else holds ten HCP also. This has two implications: (1) If you pass, the hand is likely to be passed out.  (2) If you open and buy the contract, you rate to do quite well in the play, since you will be able to place the high cards accurately--even down to jacks. So with a balanced ten-count it makes sense to open, then to pass partner's response even if it's forcing. You aren't concerned about getting to the best contract, since, with many tables passing the board out, any plus score rates to be a good result. None of this applies when you hold 11 HCP. So, in a best-hand tournament, I would open one spade with this hand but would pass if you gave me another jack.

Zenith Daylongs, however, are not best-hand tournaments, so I pass. LHO opens with one diamond. Partner passes, and RHO bids one heart. 

I could bid two spades to apply a little pressure. This is the right vulnerability to step out a little, and the fact that I didn't open with a weak two-bid should serve as a warning to partner not to take me too seriously. But this partner won't draw that inference. If I bid two spades and catch partner with good support, he will probably take me too high. So I content myself with a pusillanimous one spade. 

LHO doubles, showing three-card heart support, and partner bids three spades, weak. RHO passes. The opponents might have a game somewhere, but with a flat hand including queen-jack-nine in their suit, four spades rates to be expensive. I pass, and LHO bids four hearts. Partner and RHO pass.

Since West has only three hearts, he doesn't know that four hearts is a viable contract. So he will usually double if he wants to compete, offering his partner the option of defending. Bidding four hearts instead, therefore, shows extra shape, a hand where West has no interest in defending. Usually he will have at least six diamonds, although he might be 0-3-5-5. If responder doesn't want to play four hearts, he can correct to five diamonds or punt with four notrump to leave open the possibility of playing five clubs.

How much of this do the robots know? I suspect West knows enough to double if he is bidding on high cards rather than on shape. But I doubt if East knows enough to draw that inference. So I can't read much into his pass.

What should I lead? Dummy is probably short in spades, so I see no reason not to lead the spade ace. Even if I set up the king in declarer's hand, it's a trick he could ruff or pitch on diamonds anyway. And my ace might go away if I don't cash it. I lead the ace of spades. Dummy is a surprise:

	NORTH Robot ♠ K 3 ♥ A 5 3 ♦ A K J 3 ♣ K J 3 2
WEST Phillip ♠ A Q J 10 5 ♥ Q J 9 ♦ 9 8 ♣ 9 7 6

West	North	East	South
Phillip	Robot	Robot	Robot
			Pass
Pass	1 ♦	Pass	1 ♥
1 ♠	Double	3 ♠	Pass
Pass	4 ♥	(All pass)

I guess I was wrong. West didn't know enough to double with this hand.

Dummy plays low, partner plays the four; declarer, the deuce. Some would play suit preference here, since there are no more tricks to be had in spades. But that makes no sense to me. What is partner supposed to do if he wants me to continue spades as a passive defense? I believe in always playing attitude at trick one unless you are known to have a six-card suit (in which case, a three-way signal is readable). In a situation like this, partner encourages in spades if he wants a passive defense and discourages if he wants a shift. It's up to you to figure out which shift makes sense.

Opposite this partner, I'm on my own. I need to decide for myself whether to defend passively or to shift and, if so, which suit to shift to. Does either shift makes sense? If partner has the ace-queen of clubs, could it be necessary to cash them? If declarer is 1-2 in the black suits, yes. But is that possible? If partner has five spades and ace-queen of clubs, he probably wouldn't be making a pre-emptive raise. So I'm not worried about a pitch on the spade king. Could declarer pitch clubs on dummy's diamonds? If he is 2-6-3-2 or 2-6-2-3, that's possible. But I will gain the lead in hearts in time make the switch. It doesn't appear that an immediate club switch can be necessary.

How about a diamond shift? If partner has the diamond queen, do I need to shift to diamonds to score it? Let's try constructing a hand for declarer where that's the case. How about

♠ x x  ♥ K 10 x x x  ♦ x x x  ♣ Q x x?

Left to his own devices, declarer can pitch a diamond on dummy's long club. What happens if I switch to a diamond? Declarer simply cashes two top trumps, then knocks out partner's club ace. We can't stop the pitch. What if I drop an honor when declarer cashes the heart ace? Maybe he will finesse, fearing four hearts in partner's hand. Then I can play a second diamond before partner's club ace is dislodged.

It's worth a shot. Do I switch to the diamond nine or the eight? It should make no difference. I don't need to be honest here, so a good declarer should pay no attention to which card I lead. But if declarer is the type to pay attention, leading the nine is probably better. Most defenders would lead a "tricky" nine from queen-nine third. It's a good idea to lead the same way whether you have the queen or not. I lead the nine. Declarer rises with the ace, partner drops the seven, and declarer plays the five.

Now ace of hearts--eight--deuce. I play the jack, as planned. Declarer plays the heart three--six--ten--jack. Good. Exactly what I was hoping for. I shift to the diamond eight. Declarer rises with the king and partner drops the queen. 

So declarer had five diamonds. That makes him 2-5-5-1 or 2-4-5-2. Declarer leads the heart five, and partner follows with the four. So declarer is 2-4-5-2. If he has the club ace, he has the rest. If partner has it, we have one or two club tricks coming to us. Declarer has it. Making five.

	NORTH Robot ♠ K 3 ♥ A 5 3 ♦ A K J 3 ♣ K J 3 2
WEST Phillip ♠ A Q J 10 5 ♥ Q J 9 ♦ 9 8 ♣ 9 7 6		EAST Robot ♠ 9 8 6 4 ♥ 8 6 4 ♦ Q 7 ♣ Q 10 5 4
	SOUTH Robot ♠ 7 2 ♥ K 10 7 2 ♦ 10 6 5 4 2 ♣ A 8

32%. What did I do wrong? Did some defenders find a way to talk declarer into the diamond finesse? No. I lost the board in the auction. Some Wests saved in four spades over four hearts. Since this was going down five, it would seem like a bad idea. But the opponents chose to bid five diamonds rather than double, scoring 600. I can't worry about such things. I judged four spades was going for more than their game, and I was right. And for North to work out to double four spades with a hand where he should have doubled three doesn't seem all that hard. Sometimes you're destined to get a poor result. 

Zenith Daylong - Oct 14, 2021 - Board 5

Board 5
Our side vulnerable

♠ Q 4 2  ♥ J 9 7 4  ♦ J 8 6  ♣ 9 8 3

Partner opens one diamond, and RHO bids one spade. I pass, LHO bids two clubs, and partner doubles. The tooltip says the double is take-out, showing four or more cards in each red suit. RHO raises to three clubs. 

We do have a double fit. But I wasn't responding to partner's opening bid, and my hand has gotten worse after the one spade overcall. So I doubt it's right to compete. I pass, as does LHO. Partner hasn't had enough yet. He balances with three diamonds, presumably showing a six-card suit. If we assume the opponents would have found their eight-card spade fit, then partner has three spades, making him 3-4-6-0. That's possible. But it's more likely he's 2-4-6-1 and RHO chose to raise clubs rather than rebid his six-card spade suit.

RHO passes. Should I correct to three hearts? Even though the tooltip said the double shows four hearts, I doubt that's a firm promise. And even if partner does have four hearts, diamonds could play better. Taking club taps in partner's hand could prove awkward in hearts. Since my main goal in a competitive auction is to go plus, I want to play the safer contract. Trying to collect 140 instead of 110 is aiming for a narrow target. 

I pass. LHO passes also. West leads the king of hearts.

	NORTH Phillip ♠ Q 4 2 ♥ J 9 7 4 ♦ J 8 6 ♣ 9 8 3
	SOUTH Robot ♠ A 10 3 ♥ A 10 2 ♦ K 9 5 3 2 ♣ A K

West	North	East	South
Robot	Phillip	Robot	Robot
			1 ♦
1 ♠	Pass	2 ♣	Double
3 ♣	Pass	Pass	3 ♦
(All pass)

Wow! That's some three diamond bid, partner! I think I would have taken my chances on beating three clubs.

West wouldn't be leading from king-queen third into declarer's second suit, so the lead must be from king-queen doubleton. Frankly, that's a strange choice also. If you don't lead hearts, you may win two finesses. But the robots assume declarer is double dummy. Since they assume declarer is always dropping one of their honors, why not need the suit and try for a ruff?

Clubs have to be 3-5. That makes West either 5-2-3-3 or 6-2-2-3. If he has the spade king, that leaves East with queen-jack of clubs. East needs the diamond ace also to have his two club bid. 

I'm losing a heart and a spade. I need to hold my diamond losers to two, which means I need to play the suit to avoid either a heart ruff on my left or a spade ruff on my right. Trying to reach dummy in spades to lead up to my diamond king is pointless. I'll just open myself up to a spade ruff. So I need to lead diamonds from my hand.

Since I assume the diamond ace is on my right, I have four cases to consider: East can have (A) AQx, (B) AQ, (C) Axx, or (D) Ax.

With (A), East can win the first trump and shift to a spade, then win the second trump and reach his partner with the queen of hearts for a spade ruff. With (B), he can win the first trump and play a heart, then win the second trump and give his partner a heart ruff. So (A) and (B) are lost causes. (C) and (D) are the only holdings I need to consider.

Let's consider (C) first. I can play the king or I can play low. If I play the king, East wins, shifts to spade, and gets a ruff. If I play low, West will probably hop with the queen. Since he can't play spades from his side, there is no way for East to take a spade ruff. And since West doesn't have a third trump, there is no way for him to take a heart ruff. What if West ducks instead? Ducking would be a poor play with queen-ten doubleton, but with queen-small it might work. East wins and shifts to a spade. I can lead the king next to smother the queen. But then East can play a heart to his partner for a spade ruff. Yes. Ducking with queen-small beats me.

What about (D)? If I lead low, he can hop, cash his heart queen, and eventually get a heart ruff. But if I lead the king, there is nothing the opponents can do. East can't get a spade ruff with only two trumps, and West can't get a heart ruff, because the hearts are blocked.

In summary, I want to lead low in case (C) (although, unless West has queen-ten, this won't work against best defense) and I want to lead the king in case (D). One might conclude I should lead the king, taking my best legitimate chance. But errors are part of the game. If I think West is unlikely to find the duck with queen doubleton--and I do--I need to decide which layout is more likely.

Can West have

♠ K J x x x  ♥ K Q  ♦ Q x x  ♣ x x x ?

That doesn't look like much of a three-club bid over South's double. With six spades and a doubleton diamond, the raise looks more attractive.

How about East's two-club advance? Is he more apt to have

♠ x  ♥ x x x x  ♦ A x x  ♣ Q J x x x

or

♠ x x  ♥ x x x x  ♦ A x  ♣ Q J x x x?

Personally, I prefer the latter hand. It's better to hold a doubleton in partner's suit than a singleton. But I doubt the robots think that way. To them, any singleton is better than a doubleton. 

So the auction suggests West is more likely to have a doubleton diamond. Perhaps I'm not giving the robots enough credit. But I think West is unlikely to duck with queen doubleton, so I'm going to back my judgement and play a small diamond from my hand.

I still haven't played to trick one yet. I play a low heart from dummy and East plays the five. I take my ace and lead the diamond deuce, West plays the seven. If West did find the duck with queen doubleton, I'm down. So I have to assume he has something else. What layout do I need now? If East has three diamonds, he's getting a spade ruff, so I have to play West for three diamonds. If they include the ten, all I have to do is insert the eight. I lose two top diamonds, and there is no ruff because hearts are blocked.

I play the eight. East wins with the ten, then surprises me by cashing the heart queen. Really? West found a heart lead from king doubleton? I play the deuce, and West pitches the nine of spades. I see. A singleton. So East had five hearts. That hadn't occurred to me. He must be 1-5-2-5 and, for some reason, chose to bid clubs rather than hearts over one spade.

East continues with the eight of hearts and West ruffs with the diamond four. He switches to the club six--three--queen--ace. Diamonds should be splitting now. I lead the diamond three--ace--six--queen. I was wrong about the diamond ace. But that's because I wasn't expecting East to have the heart queen. West exits with the club jack--eight--seven--king. 

Here is the current position:

	NORTH Phillip ♠ Q 4 2 ♥ J ♦ J ♣ 9
	SOUTH Robot ♠ A 10 3 ♥ -- ♦ K 9 5 ♣ --

Is there any possibility of taking the rest? I can pitch a spade on dummy's jack of hearts. If West has the club ten, dummy's nine is a threat only he guards. And since East has a stiff spade, West holds the only spade guard also. If I could cash my tricks ending in dummy, I would have him in a squeeze. Unfortunately I can't. That's too bad. If West actually has the club ten, they went out of their way to isolate the guard in his hand. It's only fair I should be allowed to punish them for it.

My only chance is a pseudo-squeeze. This can't possibly work, since West knows I have no clubs left. But it doesn't hurt to try.

I play a diamond to dummy and pitch the spade ten on the jack of hearts. I can't return to my hand with a club ruff, since I need for West to believe, against all evidence to the contrary, that I have a club left. So I play a spade to my ace and cash the last two trumps. West, of course, discards the club ten and holds the spade king. Down one.

	NORTH Phillip ♠ Q 4 2 ♥ J 9 7 4 ♦ J 8 6 ♣ 9 8 3
WEST Robot ♠ K 9 8 7 6 5 ♥ K ♦ A 7 4 ♣ J 10 6		EAST Robot ♠ J ♥ Q 8 6 5 3 ♦ Q 10 ♣ Q 7 5 4 2
	SOUTH Robot ♠ A 10 3 ♥ A 10 2 ♦ K 9 5 3 2 ♣ A K

Minus 100 is worth 61%. Leading the diamond king at trick two would not have helped. But we would have gone plus if partner had sold to three clubs as he should have. At least we beat the pairs who played three hearts and went down anywhere from two to four. Correcting three diamonds to three hearts was indeed a bad idea.

The reason this result isn't better is that a few declarers managed to make three diamonds by playing for a different mistake. They led a small spade at trick two and West ducked. I would not have expected that to work. And if it doesn't work, you're down two. I'm still not sure whether I should have led a small diamond or the king at trick two. But either one seems better than trying to sneak a spade through.

Zenith Daylong - Oct 14, 2021 - Board 4

Board 4
Both vulnerable

♠ Q 10 5  ♥ 10 6  ♦ 9 7  ♣ J 10 9 7 3 2

LHO passes. Partner opens one heart in second seat, and RHO overcalls with one spade. I pass. LHO bids two hearts, showing an limit raise or better in spades, and partner passes. The robots play double here as showing good hearts. Since two hearts is a spade raise, I think it makes more sense to play double as take-out of spades, but I have no say in our partnership methods. 

RHO goes on to four spades, and everyone passes. Even though partner didn't double two hearts, I see no reason not to lead his suit. I lead the heart ten.

	NORTH Robot ♠ 8 7 2 ♥ Q 9 8 ♦ K J 6 4 2 ♣ A 8
WEST Phillip ♠ Q 10 5 ♥ 10 6 ♦ 9 7 ♣ J 10 9 7 3 2

West	North	East	South
Phillip	Robot	Robot	Robot
	Pass	1 ♥	1 ♠
Pass	2 ♥	Pass	4 ♠
(All pass)

If declarer has a minimum acceptance, we should have a decent chance of beating this. Dummy has a minimum limit raise, including three small trumps and a wasted queen in partner's suit. And the spade queen is offside. Our prospects look good. 

Note I'm thinking about the deal in very general terms. When you have the worst hand at the table, that's the best you can do. You need some clue where the high cards are before you can construct specific layouts. Still, simply asking yourself whether the hand is going to be easy or difficult to beat can be useful.

I expect declarer to cover with the queen, but he doesn't. He plays the eight, partner plays the three, and declarer wins with the ace. If declarer had just the ace of hearts, he would have covered my ten with the queen to force a second heart trick. So declarer must have both the ace and king. Since the heart queen has turned out to be a working card, our prospects aren't so good any more. Dummy is providing three cover cards plus a possible source of tricks. It's now a sound limit raise.

What does partner's heart three mean? It should be discouraging, showing tolerance for a club shift. With neither the king nor queen of clubs, partner should encourage regardless of his heart holding. But robots don't understand this, so I can make no assumption about the club suit.

Declarer cashes the spade ace, and partner drops the jack. Declarer continues with the spade six, I follow with the ten, and partner wins with the king. Falsecarding with the queen would be an error. Not only might it fool partner, but it could only help declarer. My high cards are limited, so the more high cards he can place me with, the more he knows about the deal. 

Declarer risked our drawing dummy's last trump, so he can't have a club loser he needs to ruff. Perhaps he has a singleton or doubleton, or perhaps he has king-queen third--or even queen third if he is counting on the king to be onside.

Partner shifts to the king of clubs. He apparently has the king-queen of clubs, so that's nine or ten HCP outside of diamonds. He must have the diamond queen to have his opening bid. Also, since declarer has no club honors, I now know he has at most two clubs.

Declarer plays the club six under partner's king. I play the jack, and declarer wins with dummy's ace. Declarer plays the deuce of diamonds to his ace. Partner plays the ten, and I play the nine. The important thing in a situation like this is to card the same way with 97 doubleton as you do with Q97. It doesn't matter whether you play up the line or echo, so long as you do the same thing with either holding. I prefer to echo, since sometimes partner needs count when you have a doubleton.

Declarer plays the deuce of hearts to the queen, partner following with the seven, then cashes the diamond king--eight-- three--seven. Why isn't declarer taking a diamond finesse? Couldn't partner have his opening bid without the diamond queen? He could have my spade queen, after all. Actually, he couldn't. If he did, he would have drawn dummy's last trump before shifting to the club king. But robots don't draw inferences like that. So, from declarer's perspective, it's possible the diamond queen is onside.

Could declarer have a doubleton diamond? That would give him 5-3-2-3. But I already decided he couldn't have three clubs, so that's impossible. For whatever reason, he's convinced the diamond queen is on his right.

Declarer plays dummy's club. Partner wins with the queen as declarer follows with the five. Partner plays the four of hearts to declarer's king. I can't afford to ruff this, since I would then have to give declarer a ruff-sluff. I pitch the three of clubs. Declarer continues with a spade. I win and tap him with a club. Partner has to score his diamond queen for down one.

	NORTH Robot ♠ 8 7 2 ♥ Q 9 8 ♦ K J 6 4 2 ♣ A 8
WEST Phillip ♠ Q 10 5 ♥ 10 6 ♦ 9 7 ♣ J 10 9 7 3 2		EAST Robot ♠ K J ♥ J 7 5 4 3 ♦ Q 10 8 ♣ K Q 4
	SOUTH Robot ♠ A 9 6 4 3 ♥ A K 2 ♦ A 5 3 ♣ 6 5

On a bad day, I might have let declarer make this. If I hadn't drawn the inference early on that declarer couldn't have three clubs, I might have been persuaded by his failure to take the diamond finesse that he was 5-3-2-3. Then, in the end position, I would think it didn't matter whether I ruffed the heart or not and might randomly choose to ruff. Of course, I shouldn't. Anytime it doesn't matter what you do when your construction is correct, you should assume it's incorrect and find some scenario where it does matter. Ruffing can never gain, and not ruffing might. So if I followed that rule, I would pitch. But it's a surprisingly easy rule to forget. Maintaining concentration at all times is difficult. When you think you know the layout, it's tempting to relax.

Nine out of 32 defenders did relax and ruffed in that position, letting the game make. So plus 100 is worth 66%.

Zenith Daylong - Oct 14, 2021 - Board 3

Board 3
Opponents vulnerable

♠ Q J 8  ♥ K Q J  ♦ K 10 7 2  ♣ 10 8 4

I have 12 HCP but no aces, and KQJ tight of hearts is hardly worth a full six points. This doesn't look like an opening bid to me.

I actually open a lot of hands others don't. But I pay more attention to playing strength than to high-card points. I once opened one heart and rebid three hearts with a hand that was opened with a weak two-bid at the other table. (We reached a good slam they missed.) Another time, the auction went one club--all pass, and, when my opponent tabled the dummy, I remarked that I would have opened one spade with her hand. (They went in down in one club, cold for four spades.) This hand, however, has little to recommend it. Two honor tricks. Three and a half playing tricks. It doesn't measure up to an opening bid by any standard other than blindly counting high-card points.

I pass. LHO opens one club, and the opponents have the auction to themselves:

West	North	East	South
Robot	Robot	Phillip	Robot
		Pass	1 ♣
Pass	1 ♦	Pass	1 ♥
Pass	1 ♠	Pass	1 NT
Pass	2 ♥	Pass	4 ♥
(All pass)

One spade was an artificial game force. Otherwise, the auction was natural. Partner leads the four of diamonds.

	NORTH Robot ♠ 4 3 2 ♥ A 8 7 ♦ A J 9 8 6 ♣ A 6
		EAST Phillip ♠ Q J 8 ♥ K Q J ♦ K 10 7 2 ♣ 10 8 4

Dummy is a surprise. I would have just raised one notrump to three. This doesn't look like the time to be looking for a four-three heart fit, especially when partner doesn't know that's what you're doing. Partner has no reason to believe you don't have the four-card heart support your two-heart bid promises.

Leading dummy's long suit suggests a singleton. But the robots hate aggressive leads. It's possible partner is leading a doubleton diamond because his spades are headed by an honor. I think it's safe to assume that if partner has led a doubleton diamond, he has either the ace or king of spades. Declarer plays low from dummy, I win with the king, and declarer plays the five. Since the three is outstanding, I'm still not sure whether partner has a singleton or not.

If partner does have a singleton, there is no rush to giving him a ruff. Since he has three trumps, I can always give him a ruff upon winning the second round of trumps. And, since I have no entry outside trumps, I can never give him two ruffs. If he has a doubleton, however, it might be necessary to return a diamond now, so I can give him an overruff when I win my trump trick.

Let's give declarer,

♠ A x  ♥ x x x x  ♦ Q x  ♣ K Q J x x.

Say I continue a diamond. Declarer wins and ducks a trump. Playing a third diamond beats him if partner has the heart ten. But if declarer has it, he can ruff high, concede a trump, and claim, losing two trump tricks and the diamond king. What happens if I play a spade instead of a third diamond? Declarer has no way to draw partner's trumps and take a pitch. Either he loses a spade trick or he concedes a ruff. So he's down one.

On that layout, I must switch to a spade at some point, but it's not necessary to switch just yet. Is there some hand where I must switch to a spade now? Suppose declarer has the same hand with the spade king instead of the ace. If I play a diamond, declarer can overtake his queen with dummy's ace and pitch a spade on the jack. Partner ruffs and we get three more tricks--a spade and two trumps--for down two. If I play a spade instead, we can take two spades then play another diamond. When I get in with my trump entry, I can play a third diamond, scoring an overruff if partner has the heart ten. That's down three.

I've found a layout where a spade shift gains, and I can't think of one where a diamond continuation gains. So I play the spade queen--ace--seven--deuce. When you have led a short suit and partner shifts, I believe your card should be attitude, but it has more to do with the suit you led than the suit partner is shifting to. Discouraging suggests your lead was a singleton; encouraging suggests it wasn't. So the spade seven should say he has a doubleton diamond. Partner, of course, has his own theories about carding, and I haven't yet figured out what they are. So I'll have to work out his diamond holding on my own.

One thing you should do consistently on defense is ask yourself, "What do I expect declarer to do now?" Then, if declarer does something different, it will ring a bell. It's important to ask this question before declarer plays. Otherwise you will miss inferences.

For example, if you say to yourself, "Declarer will duck a club now, so he can ruff a club in dummy," and he doesn't, you will know there is a good chance he has no club losers to ruff. Or if you say to yourself, "Declarer is short of dummy entries, so he will use this opportunity to take a heart finesse now," and he doesn't, you will know there is good chance he doesn't have a heart finesse to take. Both of these inferences are easy to miss if you wait until declarer plays to try to construct the layout. What declarer chooses to do tends to look normal once you've seen him do it.

What do I expect declarer to do now? If he began with queen doubleton of diamonds, I expect him to lead the queen to dummy's ace and pitch his spade loser on dummy's jack. He knows partner will ruff, but it may be with a natural trump trick.

But declarer doesn't do that. He plays the three of hearts--four--eight--jack. Why isn't he taking a pitch? Probably because he can't--because he has queen third of diamonds. So I can give partner his diamond ruff, and partner can play a spade to my queen for a second ruff. That's one diamond, one spade, two ruffs, and two trump tricks for down three. See how much easier it is to draw inferences if you anticipate declarer's plays? If I had waited until declarer ducked a trump then tried to construct the layout, it would have been much harder.

I play the diamond deuce. Declarer plays the queen, and partner follows with the three. Where did I go wrong? How can declarer be playing this way with queen doubleton of diamonds? Did I lose our spade trick by not cashing it? No. There's no need to panic.We've reached the position I envisioned above through a different order of plays. If declarer tries to take a pitch, partner scores a ruff. If he doesn't, we score a spade trick. I was focused on deciding whether partner had a singleton or doubleton diamond. But perhaps I didn't need need to worry about that. It appears a diamond return works in either case.

Declarer plays the ten of hearts--six--seven--queen. He wouldn't have played the ten without the nine, so there is no chance partner can overruff a third round of diamonds. There is nothing left to do but cash whatever spades are cashing.

It turns out no spade tricks are cashing. I play a spade; declarer ruffs. He plays a club to dummy's ace and cashes the heart ace. When trumps split, he has the rest. Making four.

	NORTH Robot ♠ 4 3 2 ♥ A 8 7 ♦ A J 9 8 6 ♣ A 6
WEST Robot ♠ K 10 9 7 6 5 ♥ 6 4 2 ♦ 4 3 ♣ 9 3		EAST Phillip ♠ Q J 8 ♥ K Q J ♦ K 10 7 2 ♣ 10 8 4
	SOUTH Robot ♠ A ♥ 10 9 5 3 ♦ Q 5 ♣ K Q J 7 5 2

So I was right that declarer couldn't take a pitch after winning the spade ace. But it wasn't because he had queen third of diamonds; it was because he had no loser to pitch. It never occurred to me declarer had a stiff spade. And rightly so. Favorable vulnerability? After a one club opening? Facing a passed hand? How many more favorable circumstances does partner need to bid two spades?

I said above that I couldn't think of a layout where a diamond return at trick two was necessary. This layout would be one if partner had the heart ten. To beat this, I would need to continue diamonds at trick two, then give partner an overruff when I get in with a trump. Even if I had continued diamonds at trick two, I have no idea how I would know to play a third one. On the layout I constructed above, a third diamond instead of a spade would cost the contract. And I think that construction is more plausible than this one. Much more plausible. Partner shouldn't have this hand. Since I was never going to find the right defense anyway, I still think my spade shift at trick two was correct.

Actually, there is another reason to shift to a spade at trick two--one that didn't occur to me at the time. Suppose I play a diamond at trick two and partner ruffs it. What does he do now? If he has the spade ace, he might be tempted to play me for the king so he can take a second ruff. After all, he has no idea my hearts are so good. It might look highly likely that I have the spade king. Shifting to the spade queen and postponing the ruff keeps partner from making that mistake.

One might expect this to be a poor result. North's strange auction worked out well, since three notrump can be held to nine tricks. Fortunately, everyone who reached three notrump bid it from the North side (after an auction that began one diamond--two clubs) and made anywhere from ten to twelve tricks when my hand failed to find a spade lead. So we score 88% for minus 620.

My decision not to open also worked out well, but it should have worked out even better. If partner bids a normal two spades over one club and I raise to three spades, we can't do any worse than minus 600. So passing gains, strangely, because it keeps the auction low enough to enable partner to bid his hand.

Zenith Daylong - Oct 14, 2021 - Board 2

Board 2
Our side vulnerable

♠ A J 8 4 2  ♥ K 8  ♦ Q 5  ♣ A J 10 6

Pass to me. Some will open one notrump with this hand. I'm happy to open one notrump offshape when I have rebid problems. But with this hand, I don't. If I open one spade and partner responds one notrump, I see no issue with rebidding two clubs. So I open one spade. 

Partner bids two hearts. I can rebid three clubs or two notrump. I would bid three clubs with the spade queen instead of the diamond queen. But with scattered values, this hand looks more like notrump than like spades-and-clubs. Furthermore, there is a variety of diamond holdings partner might have where notrump is better from my side. If I bid three clubs, I may miss my chance to bid notrump first. If I bid two notrump, on the other hand, we haven't precluded getting to a club contract. Partner can still introduce clubs over two notrump.

I bid two notrump, and partner raises to three. West leads the jack of diamonds.

	NORTH Robot ♠ K 9 ♥ A J 10 7 4 ♦ A 3 ♣ Q 5 4 2
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ A J 8 4 2 ♥ K 8 ♦ Q 5 ♣ A J 10 6

West	North	East	South
Robot	Robot	Robot	Phillip
		Pass	1 ♠
Pass	2 ♥	Pass	2 NT
Pass	3 NT	(All pass)

If partner had ace third of diamonds, I would be happy we were playing this from my side. Opposite ace doubleton, I'm not sure yet. I play low from dummy; East follows with the four and I win with the queen. Now I'm sure.

I have seven cashing tricks. I need two more. Either hearts or clubs looks promising for two additional tricks. Which one should I try first? If both finesses are working, I don't care. If one is losing, which one would I prefer to take first? If I take the club finesse and it loses, I will win the diamond return and run clubs. This might put the opponents under some pressure. Imagine West's discomfort if he holds queen fourth of hearts, for example. On the other hand, if I take the heart finesse and it loses, it's not clear they will feel the same degree of pressure when I run the heart suit. Admittedly, this is more instinct than rigorous logic. I don't have any specific plan in mind. But it looks better to take the club finesse first.

I play the spade deuce; West plays the ten. That looks like queen-ten. West is afraid I'm looking at his hand and will insert the nine. I play the king, and East follows with the three.

Should I lead the club queen or a low one? Low is better if East has a stiff king. But the queen allows me to repeat the finesse if it wins. Say I lead low to my hand and it holds. I play king of hearts and a heart to the jack. It loses and they clear diamonds. Do I risk repeating the club finesse or not? If I find myself facing that problem, I will be wishing I had led the queen.

But maybe I shouldn't worry too much about West's ducking. Ducking a trick is unattractive when you have a suit ready to establish. And if I play the jack rather then the ten, ducking will be even less attractive, since West can't be sure repeating the finesse is even an option. So I decide to guard against a stiff king by leading the deuce. East plays the three. I play the jack; West plays the seven.

Now for the heart finesse. King of hearts--six--four--nine. Eight of hearts--queen--ace--five. That makes eleven tricks. If a club to the ten holds, that makes twelve. If clubs break, that's thirteen. If they don't break, I can cash the club ace and execute a show-up squeeze, taking all the tricks if East has the spade queen or if the queen is doubleton offside.

I play the club four--eight--ten--nine. I claim. Making seven

	NORTH Robot ♠ K 9 ♥ A J 10 7 4 ♦ A 3 ♣ Q 5 4 2
WEST Robot ♠ Q 10 7 ♥ Q 6 ♦ K J 10 9 8 6 ♣ 9 7		EAST Robot ♠ 6 5 3 ♥ 9 5 3 2 ♦ 7 4 2 ♣ K 8 3
	SOUTH Phillip ♠ A J 8 4 2 ♥ K 8 ♦ Q 5 ♣ A J 10 6

62%. I beat most of the pairs who played three notrump. Some played it from the other side and didn't get the gift at trick one. Others played it from my side but got a club lead after my hand opened one notrump. The reason this result isn't better is some Souths opened one spade and rebid three clubs over two hearts, thereby reaching and making six clubs. It's hard to say whether three notrump or six clubs is the better matchpoint spot.

Note, by the way, East's play at trick one: the four from 742. That's neither count nor attitude. It appears to be random. That's what makes it hard to defend with robots. Even their trick-one plays aren't helpful.