Board 116

Board 116
Both sides vulnerable

♠ 4 ♥ J 10 6 3 ♦ K 10 8 7 6 ♣ 9 4 2

LHO passes, partner opens two notrump, and RHO passes. I bid three clubs, and partner bids three diamonds. I was expecting to hear three spades. If partner doesn't have four spades, spades could be a serious weak spot for notrump. Five diamonds might be a better contract, but I have no way to explore that possibility. I can't bid four diamonds. If partner can't support diamonds, we have no place to go. And if he can support diamonds, we may get too high, since he will assume (from my willingness to bid beyond three notrump) that I have slam interest.

I wonder how a four-three heart fit might play. Taking spade taps in the hand with four trumps isn't ideal. But if they can tap me in four hearts, that means they can run spades in three notrump, so why should notrump be any better? The best part about looking for a four-three fit is that I have only one way to do that: via Smolen. I must bid three spades, ostensibly showing four spades and five hearts. If partner has three hearts, he will bid four hearts. If he doesn't, he will bid three notrump. Either way, I may have stopped a spade lead. It has occurred to me before that it's safe to psyche Smolen, since partner doesn't really care about your four-card major (unless he gets the bright idea to try a four-three fit). I'd never thought of a reason to do it, but here's a chance to try it out.

I bid three spades, and partner bids three notrump. What could be better than this? We're playing the normal contract and I've probably stopped the most damaging lead. I pass, and RHO leads the seven of clubs.

	NORTH ♠ 4 ♥ J 10 6 3 ♦ K 10 8 7 6 ♣ 9 4 2
	SOUTH ♠ Q 9 7 ♥ A 4 ♦ A J 9 ♣ A K Q 10 8

West	North	East	South
		Pass	2 NT
Pass	3 ♣1	Pass	3 ♦2
Pass	3 ♠3	Pass	3 NT
(All pass)
1Stayman
2No four-card major
3Smolen

Right now the opponents are snatching at our convention cards and screaming for the director. Normally I welcome such histrionics, since it gives me extra time to plan the play. But there's not much planning to do on this deal. I have eight tricks off the top. I'm going to have to find the queen of diamonds to take nine. There's not much to think about until I see some discards.

I play low from dummy, and East plays the jack. I win with the king and cash the ace. West pitches the three of spades. West led a singleton? I was just wondering on the previous board whether he might do that. Now I know. The singleton club lead suggests he has the diamond queen, both because he is more likely to have it a priori and because he might have preferred a diamond lead from two small or three small over a singleton club. It also suggests he has at least nine major-suit cards, since he might have led a four-card diamond suit if he had one. Given the spade pitch, his likeliest pattern is 5-4-3-1.

Before we run the clubs, we should predict how West will discard. Making a prediction ahead of time makes it easier to notice if something unusual happens. (See the discussion of the "Mozart effect" on Board 81)

Let's give West honor fifth of spades, honor fourth of hearts, and three diamonds. He knows my major-suit shape, though not my high cards. It will certainly appear to him that his best chance to beat this is to take at least four spade tricks as soon as the defense gains the lead. He will also suspect that he can't afford a diamond pitch unless it appears his partner has the ace. With that in mind, he will probably come down to three spades, two hearts, and three diamonds. Coming down to three spades limits the defense's flexibility. It means they can't take four spade tricks unless the first spade lead comes from East. So I suspect a spade will be his final discard. He will hold on to four spades until the last minute in the hope that I began with only four clubs and he won't need to make a fourth discard.

I cash the club ace, and West discards the six of spades. I didn't expect the alarm to go off so soon. If West is giving up on holding four spades this early, my assumption that he has a spade honor is probably wrong. East probably has both the ace and king, which is too bad. It means they're not going to have as much trouble making this at the other table as I had hoped.

On the fourth club, West pitches the seven of hearts. I pitch the three of hearts from dummy. On the last club, West pitches the eight of hearts. I pitch the heart six from dummy, and East pitches the heart deuce. I've seen nothing to dissuade me from my original plan of playing West for the diamond queen. All that's changed is I'm less concerned about the finesse's losing, since I think the ace and king of spades are onside. I cash the diamond ace--deuce--six--five, then play the diamond jack. West plays the four. The missing spot is the three, which is consistent with my picture. East, it appears, gave count with five-three doubleton. I play low from dummy, and East plays the three. Making five.

	NORTH ♠ 4 ♥ J 10 6 3 ♦ K 10 8 7 6 ♣ 9 4 2
WEST ♠ J 8 6 3 ♥ K Q 9 8 7 ♦ Q 4 2 ♣ 7		EAST ♠ A K 10 5 2 ♥ 5 2 ♦ 5 3 ♣ J 6 5 3
	SOUTH ♠ Q 9 7 ♥ A 4 ♦ A J 9 ♣ A K Q 10 8

I was right about the placement of the ace and king of spades but wrong about West's pattern. He did well to pitch a spade first. Most players lazily pitch from their five-card suit first, and most declarers lazily assume they will do that, as I did.

Too bad I wasted my free psyche on a hand where it didn't matter. The next time I bid Smolen, this psyche will be part of our partnership experience, and partner will have to tell the opponents about it. This particular psyche is more effective if it catches partner by surprise.

At the other table, North bids brazenly to three notrump after his partner's Stayman response. West leads the king of hearts. Nice lead! Much more effective than the king from king-queen fifth he produced yesterday. A low heart would have given declarer his ninth trick. It appears declarer will be forced into the winning play in diamonds. When he cashes the ace and king of clubs, he will discover he needs dummy's diamond entry to take the club finesse. Thus he has no way to finesse East for the diamond queen even if he wanted to.

As expected, declarer takes his heart ace and cashes two clubs. West pitches the deuce of spades. Declarer leads the diamond jack. When West plays low, he overtakes with the king. What's this? Has he decided to pin his hopes on the queen's dropping doubleton to avoid the risk of going down two? Can this be the percentage play?  And, more importantly, what's the possessive of  "the queen of diamonds"?  I had to drop the "of diamonds" a few sentences ago, because I wasn't sure.

Focusing on the bridge question, let's assume diamonds are three-two and that the play will go the same way at the other table except that I will finesse West for the diamond queen. How does declarer's play compare? If West has queen third of diamonds, declarer will lose 13 imps. If East has queen doubleton, declarer will gain 13 imps. And if East has queen third, declarer will gain 2 imps, going down one instead of two. Queen doubleton is two thirds as likely as queen third, so if you weight everything accordingly, declarer's expectation comes out to minus seven eights of an imp. His actual expectation is a little worse than that, since my calculation ignores the chance that West has queen fourth of diamonds or that the opponents can no longer beat you two after West's spade discard. (It also ignores the chance that East has both spade honors. But it's valid to ignore that, since that scenario renders the choice of diamond plays irrelevant.)

Declarer runs the clubs, cashes the ace of diamonds, then plays a heart. With the ace and king of spades onside, declarer's last horse comes home. The defense can take only four tricks. Making three.

Me: +660
Jack: +600

Score on Board 116: +2 IMPs
Total: -22 IMPs