Wednesday, March 17, 2010

Board 119

Board 119
Both sides vulnerable

♠ A 3 Q 8 6 8 6 4 ♣ K 9 5 4 3

I pass in first seat. LHO opens one spade, and RHO bids two hearts. LHO raises to three hearts, and RHO bids four clubs. LHO bids four hearts, ending the auction. It might be right to attack clubs while I still have a spade entry, but I doubt we can take two tricks in clubs. Nor does it seem likely we can take a second trick in either major. To beat this, I will probably need to find partner with a diamond trick anyway, so I might as well lead that suit now.  That way, the club play can come from partner's side. I lead the four of diamonds.


NORTH
♠ K Q J 6 5
A 7 3
Q J 7 5
♣ 2


WEST
♠ A 3
Q 8 6
8 6 4
♣ K 9 5 4 3




West North East South
Pass 1 ♠ Pass 2 1
Pass 3 Pass 4 ♣2
Pass 4 (All pass)
1Almost game-forcing
2Control in clubs for hearts


Declarer plays the jack from dummy--three--deuce. It doesn't appear we have much chance to beat this. We have the spade ace and whatever heart tricks we can manage. Declarer plays the jack of spades, partner plays the deuce, and declarer ruffs with the deuce of hearts. OK. Maybe we don't have a spade trick. But now it appears declarer will have some club losers to dispose of. Declarer cashes the king of diamonds--six--five--ten, then the ace of diamonds, which partner ruffs with the five of hearts.

This is a curious line. I can't imagine what declarer has to gain by letting partner ruff a diamond. One thing for sure, declarer isn't playing this way with king-jack-ten sixth of hearts, so he must be 0-5-4-4. Partner shifts to the six of clubs, declarer plays the ace, and I play the three. Declarer ruffs the seven of clubs in dummy, as partner follows with the eight. Declarer ruffs another spade with the four of hearts, dropping my ace. He ruffs another club in dummy, dropping partner's queen, then cashes the heart ace, dropping partner's king. We are down to this position:


NORTH
♠ K Q 6
--
Q
♣ --


WEST
♠ --
Q 8
--
♣ K 9


EAST
♠ 10 8 7 4
--
--
♣ --


SOUTH
♠ --
J 10
9
♣ J



Declarer discards his club on dummy's spade queen as I ruff. My heart queen is our last trick. Making four.


NORTH
♠ K Q J 6 5
A 7 3
Q J 7 5
♣ 2


WEST
♠ A 3
Q 8 6
8 6 4
♣ K 9 5 4 3


EAST
♠ 10 9 8 7 4 2
K 5
10 3
♣ Q 8 6


SOUTH
♠ --
J 10 9 4 2
A K 9 2
♣ A J 10 7



At the other table, the auction goes the same way except that my teammate bids six hearts over North's four hearts. This makes no sense at all. In Eastern Science Fiction, North's three-heart bid could be just about anything. And, since South knows his partner can't cue-bid four diamonds over four clubs, he might fear that he's missing something by passing four hearts. But my teammate should have no such fear. His partner's three heart wasn't even forcing! South has a void in his partner's suit, his trumps are headed by the jack, and his partner was willing to stop short of game opposite a minimum two-over-one. Personally, I think even four clubs was an overbid. It would never occur to me to bid again over four hearts, much less drive to slam.

I'm rooting for the ace of spades lead, but it's hard even to make a case for it. West leads four of diamonds. At least there's some hope. A club lead would have guaranteed two trump tricks for the defense. Declarer wins with the ace and floats the nine of hearts. East takes his king and shifts to the ten of spades. Not a good idea. His partner would have led some kind of alarm-clock card if he were void in spades. This shift reveals that the spade ace is offside, so declarer should now make it.

Could East know enough to make a deceptive shift from ace fourth of spades? Maybe. Declarer, in theory, marked himself with a spade void by not Blackwooding (except for the fact that my teammates don't play Blackwood). So a clever and trusting East might find that shift. But, in the long run, you lose more than you gain by playing your opponents to be geniuses. I would be hard-pressed to play my opponent to have done such a thing. I can name players who are good enough to find the shift. But (sad to say) I doubt any of them has sufficient confidence in my bidding to infer the spade void with any certainty.

Declarer ruffs the spade and floats the ten of hearts. Since the queen of hearts was third, declarer can't ruff any clubs in dummy. That means he needs four spade tricks, which he can take only if West began with ace doubleton or if East began with ace fourth.

Declarer plays a heart to the ace, as East pitches the deuce of spades. Declarer plays a diamond to his king, then a diamond back to the queen. East pitches yet another spade, the four. Declarer leads the jack of spades, and East follows with the seven.

It's now 100% to ruff. Declarer has seen four spades from East, so he knows he didn't start with ace fourth. Even if you give your opponent credit for underleading the spade ace, the spade pitches tell you that's not what happened. Any defender capable of the underlead is capable of seeing that he can't afford to pitch spades from ace fifth or sixth. But, instead of the 100% line, declarer opts for the 0% line. He pitches a club. Down one.

Computers! I don't think there's a human in the world above the level of novice who would go down in this deal having reached this point in the play. Nine boards to go, and we've dropped back to minus 19 imps.

Me: -620
Jack: +100

Score on Board 119: -12 IMPS
Total: -19 IMPs

3 comments:

  1. This is related to why computers treat guessable queens and jacks on defense as immaterial. In that instance, they assume the opponent is playing double-dummy. In your case, they ignore the fact that RHO could have defended better if he held the SA when deciding what to do in the end position.

    I wonder if the entire approach used by computers is wrong? If so, how could you program a computer to decide a line of play using thought processes similar to those of a good player?

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  2. ""Declarer cashes the king of diamonds--six--five--ten,""

    You don't play Present Count........ie, the 8 at this point?

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  3. No. Any card higher than the four shows an odd number originally. So my agreement (which I don't mean to suggest is universal) is that your choice denotes suit preference: low to say you have something in clubs and high to say you don't. This is assuming you think partner cares. Most of the time (as here) I assume partner can fend for himself and I choose my card at random. At the table, I choose the card on the right. That doesn't work at the computer, which is a minor annoyance. Jack needs a "shuffle" button to enable you to re-sort your hand randomly.

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