Tuesday, December 8, 2009

Board 59

Board 59 (Click to download pbn file)
Neither vulnerable

♠ 8 6 9 7 5 4 6 3 2 ♣ K 10 7 3

I pass, and LHO opens one notrump. RHO bids two clubs, then four notrump (natural) over his partner's two spades. West goes on to six notrump, and partner leads the four of diamonds.


NORTH
♠ Q 10 4
A K 8 6
J 10 5
♣ A Q 8




EAST
♠ 8 6
9 7 5 4
6 3 2
♣ K 10 7 3

WestNorthEastSouth
Pass1 NT
Pass2 ♣Pass2 ♠
Pass4 NTPass6 NT
(All pass)

Partner has either four or five high-card points, and I doubt he's leading from an honor on this auction. That means he must have either the queen of hearts or a high spade honor. Declarer is likely to be 4-3-3-3, since he didn't rebid spades or introduce a new suit over four notrump.

Dummy plays the ten of diamonds, I play the deuce, and declarer wins with the king. He plays the deuce of hearts--ten--king.  I play the five.  If partner does have the queen of hearts, it's dropping. 

Declarer leads the four of spades from dummy. As I've mentioned in an earlier post, the right way to card in a suit in which declarer might need to guess the jack is to give correct count when you don't hold the jack and false count when you do--not as a deceptive maneuver but as a matter of agreement. This method allows you to give count to partner without giving the suit away to declarer. From declarer's point of view, if West plays up the line and East echoes, the suit could be either

WEST
♠ J x x x
EAST
♠ x x

or

WEST
♠ x x x
EAST
♠ J x x

Similarly, if West echoes and East plays up the line, the suit could be either

WEST
♠ x x
EAST
♠ J x x x

or

WEST
♠ J x x
EAST
♠ x x x

If you don't have this agreement, it is dangerous to give count routinely in suits like this, since declarer just might decide to believe you.  Since Jack and I don't have this agreement, I play the six.  Declarer wins with the ace and partner plays the deuce.  If we were carding properly, that would be from three small, king-jack third (not king-empty third, else declarer would have finessed), or jack fourth. But I suspect what partner actually has is three spades with or without the jack. That means declarer is 5-3-3-2 or 5-2-3-3, probably the former, since it appears partner has queen-ten doubleton of hearts.  So declarer has five spade tricks, three diamonds, two hearts, and the club ace--eleven tricks.  He has a third heart trick he doesn't know about yet.  If he has the club jack, he can drive my club king for twelve tricks, so I must assume partner has it, and we must offer declarer some alternative to dropping partner's heart queen. 

Declarer plays the three of spades--five--queen--eight. He plays the six of hearts. I play the four--queen--jack. Didn't I decide declarer can't have that card? Ace-king of spades, ace-king-queen of diamonds, queen of hearts. That's eighteen high-card points. No wonder he accepted the invitation. Declarer plays the nine of diamonds, another card he can't have, since we "know" he has ace-king-queen tight. Perhaps he's 4-3-4-2 and partner did give false count with jack fourth of spades. Partner plays the seven of diamonds--jack--three. Declarer plays the ten of spades to his king as I pitch the three of clubs. Partner plays the spade jack. Declarer leads the spade seven, and partner pitches the deuce of clubs.

So declarer does have five spades. What's going on? And why isn't declarer claiming seven? The only thing I can figure out is that partner must have underled the diamond ace at trick one, then ducked the ace on the lead of the nine. That means declarer's hand is

♠ A K x x x Q x x K Q x ♣ J x

He accepted with a minimum in high cards because of his fifth spade. If I'm right, he has eleven tricks, and he has me caught in a strip squeeze. If dummy and I both come down to two hearts and two clubs, declarer can cash the ace of hearts, and, when he discovers hearts don't break, he can toss me in with a heart to lead into the ace-queen of clubs. To stop the endplay, I must save a diamond and stiff my king of clubs.

On the fourth round of spades dummy pitches the five of diamonds, and I pitch the seven of clubs. Declarer cashes his last spade and everyone pitches clubs: five--eight--ten. Declarer, apparently realizing the endplay won't work because I still have a diamond, plays a club to the queen. I win with my singleton king and play a diamond to partner. Partner cashes his long diamond. Down two.


NORTH
♠ Q 10 4
A K 8 6
J 10 5
♣ A Q 8


WEST
♠ J 5 2
J 10
A 8 7 4
♣ 9 6 5 2


EAST
♠ 8 6
9 7 5 4
6 3 2
♣ K 10 7 3


SOUTH
♠ A K 9 7 3
Q 3 2
K Q 9
♣ J 4


Was partner right to duck the second diamond? What if he wins and shifts to a club? If he does that, declarer's percentage play is to hop with the ace and cash his tricks. If hearts break, he has twelve tricks. If they don't, he has a squeeze, provided the hand with the long heart has the king of clubs. Ducking the diamond avoids correcting the count for the simple squeeze. Declarer can still make his contract, but he has to guess who has the club king. Nice play, partner.

At the other table, the auction and lead are the same. But East pitches his last diamond on the run of the spades, leaving himself exposed to the strip squeeze. Declarer works it out and makes six.

Jack, like all bridge-playing programs I know of, defends by searching for plays that beat the hand double dummy. I'm not sure how he selects his plays once he concludes that the hand is cold double dummy. Human defenders can select plays that offer declarer a losing option, but computers seem unable to do that, except perhaps by accident. I suspect ducking the diamond ace was one such accident. West "thought" at the time that his play didn't matter and chose to play low either at random or because he always plays low when it doesn't matter.

If computers are ever to play as well as humans, they need to be able to analyze hands from their opponent's single-dummy point of view. The inability to do so was very costly on the deal.  I must confess, however, I can't even imagine how to design a program to do this. 

Me: +100
Jack: -990

Score on Board 59: +14 IMPs
Total: +138 IMPs

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