Board 61

Board 61
Both sides vulnerable

♠ A K 10 ♥ A J 3 ♦ A 10 3 2 ♣ A 7 2

Two passes to me. I once had a conversation with Edgar Kaplan about how to play when you are down in a match. Edgar was of the opinion that the way many people play--taking anti-percentage actions and hoping to get lucky--was wrong. He thought the best approach was to strive for IMP inflation. You try to generate a lot of IMPs, both plus and minus, by taking reasonable actions that you don't think will be taken at the other table. Just as retirees' hard-earned savings are eroded by monetary inflation, he explained, your opponents' hard-fought IMP savings will be rendered paltry by IMP inflation. (I don't think that's quite verbatim, but it's close.) One example he gave of an inflationary action was to open one of a suit with a normal two notrump opening. It might work out well; it might work out poorly. But you have an excellent chance of producing a different result than the one obtained at the other table.

If I were down in the match, this might be a good opportunity to try this theory. Certainly there are ways opening one diamond could work out badly, but there are also lots of ways it could win. Partner might pass one diamond, for example. If so, whether RHO balances or not, you will probably have a better chance at a plus score than your opponent, who is playing two notrump at the other table. If partner were not a passed hand, one diamond might also make it easier to investigate slam. You will probably have a more intelligent auction after a two-club or an inverted two-diamond response than you would after a two-notrump opening. Even giving the opponents a chance to enter the auction could work out to your benefit. Their bidding might steer you away from a poor three notrump contract, or it might help you in the play. The worst development after opening one diamond would be to hear the auction continue pass--one of a major--pass. You are then left with no intelligent action.

As an experiment, I decide to pretend I'm down 148 imps in this match instead of up 148 imps and test the effect of a one diamond opening. As it happens, I encounter one of the lucky scenarios. LHO and partner both pass. RHO balances with two clubs. I could double, but with better defense than offense, I have no particular reason to encourage partner to bid. If he has diamond support, I'll hear from him. If he doesn't, he probably has some club length, and we rate to go plus on defense. I pass, LHO passes, and partner bids two diamonds, which ends the auction. West leads the jack of clubs.

	NORTH ♠ 9 8 6 ♥ 8 7 6 2 ♦ Q 9 6 5 ♣ 8 4
	SOUTH ♠ A K 10 ♥ A J 3 ♦ A 10 3 2 ♣ A 7 2

West	North	East	South
	Pass	Pass	1 ♦
Pass	Pass	2 ♣	Pass
Pass	2 ♦	(All pass)

East plays the nine of clubs, and I duck. West continues with the king. I assume he began with king-jack-ten and East began with queen-nine fifth. East plays the three, and I win with the ace.

There are two reasonable ways to play the diamond suit: (A) Play ace and low to the nine. (B) Play low to the nine. If this loses to the jack, finesse against the king.

Against best defense, these plays are equally good against three-two breaks. (A) is superior against king doubleton on your left (3 cases), and (B) is superior against two small on your left (also 3 cases). Of course, you don't always get best defense. If you lead low, West may hop with king doubleton, nullifying (A)'s advantage. So, as a practical matter, (B) is superior provided we don't have to worry about four-one breaks. (B) fails when East has a singleton honor. It also fails when West has a singleton king (unless you go against the odds by cashing the queen next instead of the ace).

Since East's failure to balance with a double makes it unlikely he has a singleton diamond, I'm going to go with (B). I play a low diamond to the nine, which loses to the king.

East shifts to the deuce of spades. I can't see how either opponent could have a singleton spade, so I play the ten. If East's diamond king was a singleton, I may need an extra trick. West wins with the jack and continues with the ten of clubs, which I ruff in dummy. If I'm going to try a double finesse in hearts, I need to do it now, since I have only one dummy entry left. I play a heart--four--jack--king. West returns the five of hearts to East's queen and my ace. Trumps do break, as I suspected they would, so I make two.

	NORTH ♠ 9 8 6 ♥ 8 7 6 2 ♦ Q 9 6 5 ♣ 8 4
WEST ♠ J 7 3 ♥ K 10 9 5 ♦ J 7 4 ♣ K J 10		EAST ♠ Q 5 4 2 ♥ Q 4 ♦ K 8 ♣ Q 9 6 5 3
	SOUTH ♠ A K 10 ♥ A J 3 ♦ A 10 3 2 ♣ A 7 2

At the other table, South opens two notrump and buys it. It looks as if this should go down, so I have a chance for a pick-up.

West leads the ten of hearts to the queen and ace. A bad start, since declarer now threatens to develop a heart trick. With no side entries to dummy, declarer has no choice but to adopt line (A) in the play of the diamond suit. He cashes the ace, then floats the ten, losing to East's king.

The defense has to take three tricks in the black suits before declarer establishes dummy's eight of hearts.  So East must switch to a spade at this point.  If he switches to a club, declarer can duck. West can't profitably attack spades from his side, and the defense can't arrange for East to win the second round of clubs without blocking the club suit (thus allowing declarer to win the club ace on the second round).

Remarkably, East finds the spade switch. He plays the deuce of spades, declarer hops with the ace, and West plays the three. Declarer plays a diamond to the queen, and East drops the three of clubs. Declarer leads a heart to the jack and king, and the moment of truth has arrived. The defense must play two rounds of clubs, then switch back to spades.  They don't. West shifts to the jack of spades. Declarer wins and plays another heart. Making two.

Assuming partner's spade deuce was fourth best, the jack of spades is unlikely to be the right play. The defense can't take enough tricks in spades to beat this unless spades are running. And they can't be.  West knows declarer needs a spade honor for his opening two notrump. 

East also knows a spade continuation is likely to be wrong, given his partner's three of spades and declarer's failure to duck the spade shift. So East's low club pitch was ill-advised.  A spade on the third round of diamonds would virtually force partner into the right defense. Even if East is hesitant to insist on a club shift, he should at least pitch a high club.  On this hand, that would be sufficient.  Once West knows his partner has a club honor, he can see that a club shift can't cost. 

The hardest part of the defense was East's spade shift.  Once he found that, I think the defense should solve this. Either hand had a chance to get it right, although I think West deserves the preponderance of the blame. We lose one imp instead of winning five.

Me: +90
Jack: +120

Score on Board 61: -1 IMP
Total: +147 IMPs