Monday, March 15, 2010

Board 117

Board 117
Our side vulnerable

♠ K 10 8 5 4 3 2 10 J 8 5 ♣ 9 4

Partner passes, and RHO opens one notrump. The vulnerability isn't going to keep me from bidding. It's just going to slow me down a little. I content myself with a mere two spades. That should be safe enough. If partner has spade support, I doubt I'll mind being raised to whatever level he chooses to raise to. If he doesn't have spade support, I don't expect to hear from him, since he couldn't act in first seat.

LHO bids three diamonds (forcing), and RHO bids three notrump. LHO bids four notrump, which my opponents insists on playing as Blackwood. RHO shows an ace, then two kings. LHO signs off in six notrump.

If partner has queen doubleton of spades and a probable entry, I would expect him to double this. Since he didn't double, I'm going to defend passively. I lead the nine of clubs.


NORTH
♠ 9 7
A 9 2
A Q 10 6 4 3
♣ A 8


WEST
♠ K 10 8 5 4 3 2
10
J 8 5
♣ 9 4




West North East South
Pass 1 NT
2 ♠ 3 1 Pass 3 NT
Pass 4 NT2 Pass 5 3
Pass 5 NT4 Pass 6 5
Pass 6 NT (All pass)
1Forcing to game
2Ace asking for no trump
31 or 4 aces
4King asking
52 kings


Once again, North held a perfectly good quantitative four notrump call, which Jack's fondness of Blackwood prevented him from making. Dummy plays the eight of clubs, partner plays the queen, and declarer plays the three. Assuming partner has the king of clubs as well (you never know), then he has at most a queen unaccounted for. If we assume that it is the heart queen (the most favorable assumption), declarer has six diamond tricks, two black aces, and three heart tricks via a finesse. He needs one more trick. If he has a fourth heart and a third club, he will be able to squeeze partner in hearts and clubs for his twelfth trick. It seems our only real chance is that declarer is missing a threat in one suit or the other.

Partner shifts to the six of spades, declarer wins with the ace, and I encourage with the eight. Declarer plays the deuce of clubs to the ace, partner playing the five.  Since we know declarer has the jack of clubs, that means he has a club threat.  I have to hope he has only three hearts.  Declarer plays the three of diamonds from the dummy. Partner plays the seven, and declarer plays the nine. Well, now. I suppose declarer thought I was likely to be three-one the other way in the red suits. I win with the diamond jack and cash the spade king. Declarer takes the rest. Down two.


NORTH
♠ 9 7
A 9 2
A Q 10 6 4 3
♣ A 8


WEST
♠ K 10 8 5 4 3 2
10
J 8 5
♣ 9 4


EAST
♠ 6
Q 7 6 4 3
7 2
♣ K Q 7 6 5


SOUTH
♠ A Q J
K J 8 5
K 9
♣ J 10 3 2



Since declarer held the eight of hearts, he didn't need the squeeze.  But he did need to pick up the diamonds. He should have read my Bridge World article The Majority Rule. I'm known to have nine cards in the black suits (assuming I didn't completely lose my mind when I bid two spades). According to the Majority Rule, it's right to finesse East for the diamond jack only if a four-one split still leaves him with a majority of the hearts. It does not. A four-one diamond split leaves North with three of the six hearts. If I were known to have ten black cards, declarer's play would be correct. This is a minor flaw in Jack's method of calculating odds. Since he calculates odds empirically from a sample rather than analytically from the entire population, he will occasionally reach the wrong conclusion through sampling error. In the long run, these errors won't matter much, since the second-best play he chooses will be only slightly inferior to the best play. Sometimes he can even get lucky. The second-best play might succeed when the best play fails. This time, however, his error was costly.

At the other table, South opens one heart, and West passes, which seems awfully timid. If I can make a simple overcall over one notrump, surely Jack can afford to pre-empt to the same level over one heart. North bids two diamonds, and South bids two notrump to show his strong notrump. North bids three hearts, and South bids three notrump, denying a fifth heart. North raises this to six. I've taken Blackwood off my teammates' card to keep them from using it in auctions like this, but they still don't seem to have figured out how to use a natural four notrump to invite a slam.

Having failed to make a discovery bid to help him with his lead, West has no reason not to choose the five of spades. Declarer wins with the queen and plays a heart to the ace. Seeing West's ten drop, he plays a low heart to his eight. West pitches the deuce of spades. Declarer cashes the diamond king then plays the nine of diamonds to the queen.

Declarer makes an overtrick and we pick up fifteen imps. We're back in the game.

Me: +100
Jack: -1020

Score on Board 117: +15 IMPs
Total: -7 IMPs

2 comments:

  1. With respect to the next to last paragraph - as D cannot split worse that 4-1 (both opps followed suit to the first D trick) there is no way declarer is going to lose more than one trick in D. Hence playing the D Q on the 2nd round is right regardless of the spots being played thus far.

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  2. Thanks for the correction I seem to have had a blind spot. I've update the text accordingly.

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